Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

I’ve never been too concerned regarding his jumping but he does make the odd mistake and if there are doubts then Dashel Drasher will put them to the test
 
Is Fakir even going to be in the country? Unless they've already brought him over, given the conditions, he's surely staying at home.
 
I've done my figures and am staying loyal to Fanion D'Estruval. This is a G1 horse too.

[TABLE="width: 721"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]Jockey
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fanion D'Estruval
[/TD]
[TD]V Williams
[/TD]
[TD]C Deutsch
[/TD]
[TD]162
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]176
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lostintranslation
[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard
[/TD]
[TD]B Powell
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fakir D'oudairies
[/TD]
[TD]JP O'Brien
[/TD]
[TD]Mark Walsh
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[TD]170
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]177
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Mister Fisher
[/TD]
[TD]N Henderson
[/TD]
[TD]James Bowen
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]170
[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]175
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Waiting Patiently
[/TD]
[TD]C Williams
[/TD]
[TD]Jack Tudor
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD](170)
[/TD]
[TD]y
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dashel Drasher
[/TD]
[TD]Jeremy Scott
[/TD]
[TD]Rex Dingle
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]176
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Saint Calvados
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]Harry Cobden
[/TD]
[TD]162
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[TD]+
(167)
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Two For Gold
[/TD]
[TD]Kim Bailey
[/TD]
[TD]David Bass
[/TD]
[TD]154
[/TD]
[TD]162
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
I hope you’re right DO because I’m on Phoenix Way NRNB (may go elsewhere) @16s - still available - in the Ultima as the Ascot race looked decent.
 
wilsonl said:
I hope you’re right DO because I’m on Phoenix Way NRNB (may go elsewhere) @16s - still available - in the Ultima as the Ascot race looked decent.
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Yes, I think that form is sh1t hot.

The worry with PW for the Ultima is the trip. I felt his big improvement last time was down to dropping back in trip from 3m the time before. The Topham, maybe?
 
The fact they’ve entered him in the National leads me to think they wouldn’t be concerned about the trip and he’s a strong traveller.

But it is Harry Fry and if he ducks Cheltenham then no money lost.
 
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The each way double (effectively related) hopefully qualifies for the thread.

Larry on Saturday & Phoenix Way for the Ultima is c. 80/1. Both NRNB in case Phoenix Way doesn’t run. Potentially the horses that PW beat LTO could win the big two races on Saturday.

Hopefully the handicapper doesn’t bump him as result if they do but I’m happy that Phoenix Way has been scratched from this weekend and is next entered in the old RP chase on the 26th, after the Cheltenham weights are out.
 
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wilsonl said:
Larry on Saturday & Phoenix Way for the Ultima is c. 80/1. Both NRNB in case Phoenix Way doesn’t run. Potentially the horses that PW beat LTO could win the big two races on Saturday.
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180/1-ish, surely?

I've followed you in anyway in case I'm wrong about PW's stamina.
 
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Actually no. 80.96. You can probably get bigger but Hills biggest about PW and 4 places Larry on Saturday, plus Victor (11/1 Larry) wouldn’t take my bet
 
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On the one hand given Phoenix Way's last run I think he could develop into a Ryanair chase horse next season, and they did say the drop in trip to 2M5F helped the last day.

On the other, as Lee said, he is in the old RP Chase over 3M later this month and also has a Grand National entry.

He travels so well as per the last day and did the serious damage at the end of the race in that final furlong or two.

I am just stating the obvious with the above but I really am keen to hear what they intend to do with him.

A completely different set of circumstances with his stablemate Metier, who I am convinced they know stays further than 2 miles based on the trainers comments after Lingfield.

I want to see Metier in the Coral Cup. I reckon his class will see him him run well if he handles the extra few furlongs and some form of soft is in the going description.
 
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Marb said:
Yes was thinking the same thing re- Cheddleton.
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Celebre D'Allen who won last Saturday and quickened up well is now 6/1 anti post fav for the Paddy Power Plate.

While Cheddleton is not a horse to back to win in a class two race he is a very good yardstick with form with Frero Banbou and Eclair D'ainay.

Celebre D'allen had some excellent form in France aswell before coming over here and joining Phillip Hobbs.

He's got hurdles form too but you'd think they will run over fences again next time in a race like the Paddy Power Plate. He has gone up 6lbs to 141 which is perfectly fair.

That 6/1 for the Plate is worth taking non runner no bet.
 
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I'd be surprised if Calebre D’allen was much shorter than 6/1 on the morning of the race, if at all and you’ll get better place terms. He’s a 10 year old and despite his low mileage he doesn’t strike me as one with loads of progression in him. Some maybe but questionable as to whether that’ll be enough to put him the required amount ahead of his mark that you typically need to be to win a festival handicap.
 
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Hmmm. I can see why you think 6s is too short at this stage, Lee.

I haven't backed him yet I should add, but I do intend to do so, as I feel he is very lightly raced for a 10 year old.

After two years away from the track since joining Phillip Hobbs stable, connections opted to run and to win two class 3 handicap hurdles on his first two starts over here which protected his chase mark nicely as he has only gone up the 6lbs for the last day. I feel the stable have found some improvement in him since his racing days in France.

He beat Wishing and Hoping, Amoola Gold and Cheddleton who are decent enough yardsticks, but he won really cosily which was the most notable thing and can only improve upon that run for Cheltenham.

3 wins from 3 races in England now. He will have superior form to about 80-90 percent of runners on the day and I actually think he could turn out to be a bit of a good thing, with the main dangers probably being several well handicapped types from Ireland.
 
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I would worry that he came out and won the other day myself.

If you're targeting a festival handicap why risk going up in the weights if you don't need to? With younger novices on marks that might not make the cut, fair enough, but you know what the Irish are likely to have lurking so why make it easier for them?

Not for me, certainly at this stage.

But don't let me put you off it. The brother still reminds me of the time I put him off Master Oats for the Gold Cup when he was thinking of taking 40/1.
 
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Fair enough DO but it was only his first go at seeing a fence in this country. The idea he would run in the plate as a 10 year old without having a chase start in this country beforehand would seem a bit odd to me.

I don't think he has ruined his mark either. 141 is perfectly workable for a horse with his profile and recent form.

Each to their own though!
 
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I think he’s got a decent if fairly obvious chance Martin but 6/1 is only about right IMO and I think he’ll be close enough to that on the day when you’ll have BOG and c. 7 places available rather than the 5 right now.

There are plenty close enough to him in the ante post list where this is their likely target to keep his day of the race price real and my main concern with him would be his lack of experience of UK fences. Just the one run and this will be a lot different to the Warwick race he won.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I would worry that he came out and won the other day myself.

If you're targeting a festival handicap why risk going up in the weights if you don't need to? With younger novices on marks that might not make the cut, fair enough, but you know what the Irish are likely to have lurking so why make it easier for them?

Not for me, certainly at this stage.

But don't let me put you off it. The brother still reminds me of the time I put him off Master Oats for the Gold Cup when he was thinking of taking 40/1.
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QUOTES: CELEBRE D'ALLEN did it well and stayed on strongly in the straight. He's progressing nicely and hopefully will run in the Plate at the festival. We thought if he didn't run today he probably wasn't going to get in, but he will now - Philip Hobbs, trainer.
 
There is one that would go off fav if it got in but it would need to scrape in at the very bottom of the weights.
 
wilsonl said:
I think he’s got a decent if fairly obvious chance Martin but 6/1 is only about right IMO and I think he’ll be close enough to that on the day when you’ll have BOG and c. 7 places available rather than the 5 right now.

There are plenty close enough to him in the ante post list where this is their likely target to keep his day of the race price real and my main concern with him would be his lack of experience of UK fences. Just the one run and this will be a lot different to the Warwick race he won.
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Yeah I would be looking to have 50 or 100 quid on the nose with NRNB, Lee.

I wouldn't back him each way at 6/1.

I take on board what you say and maybe he could drift to 8s or 9s on the day.

The main thing above and beyond value is do I think he is a likely winner and I do think he is.
 
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wilsonl said:
QUOTES: CELEBRE D'ALLEN did it well and stayed on strongly in the straight. He's progressing nicely and hopefully will run in the Plate at the festival. We thought if he didn't run today he probably wasn't going to get in, but he will now - Philip Hobbs, trainer.
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Interesting quote.
 
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