Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

wilsonl said:
The Tide Turns in the Boodles at 9/1 NRNB

Elliott was quoted in the RP Cheltenham stable preview earlier in the week as saying how he wanted to run him in the Boodles but he needed to get a 3rd run into him for him to qualify.

He’s just been declared to run in the Red Mills on Saturday in a race he wouldn’t be expected to win against the likes of Saldier, Quilixios, Darasso and Teahupoo, in spite of the weight allowance.

The last time Elliott entered a juvenile in this race was in 2019 was Couer Sublime. He finished down the field at Gowran before running 2nd to Pentland Hills in the Triumph when he had a rating of 138. That mark would have been lenient enough to run in the Boodles (then Fred Winter of course) but he was Elliott’s only realistic Triumph entry whereas this year he has at least two with very strong chances in that race.

The Tide Turns currently has an HRI rating of 135 and in the likelihood that a similar performance to Couer Sublime’s awaits him on Saturday that mark isn’t likely to change too much for the Boodles, even allowing for an Elliott BHA tax.

Having looked good on his debut in a 20 runner Punchestown maiden he performed more than creditably at the DRF behind Vauban and Fil Dor when he wasn’t given an overly hard time in the latter stages.

A mark of between 135 and c. 138 in the Boodles would (history suggests) see him carry something like 11st 5lb - 11st 8lb, which on his past performances wouldn’t be insurmountable

Were he to win on Saturday then he more than likely rules himself out of handicaps anyway so the Cheltenham NRNB kicks in. Similarly, were he to run deplorably then they may elect to skip Cheltenham altogether.
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Shortened up with a few firms today. Good luck, Lee.

I am torn between your fancy and the talking horses talking horse, Gaillic Warrior!

I haven't committed yet. :)
 
Presume Fakir, Fisher, The Saint and Fanion. Interesting to see how Fanion copes given his rating comes via handicaps and the others via graded races.
 
Slim said:
Ebasari is Elliot's Boodles horse.
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Any word on its handicap mark?

When it beat Adamantly Chosen (1/4f) RPRs went low because they took the weight difference at face value, whereas it was WFA at the time. AC got RPR 136 for it and next time posted 140. The chances are it will be around 146 in the UK. Ebasari, if rated on that previous run might end up around 144 here.

Then there was only 1lb between AC and the Gringo horse that DD beat 20L in a canter. So, if AC ends up on 146 here, what might DD be rated? 166?? :blink:
 
15:38 Sat 19 February 2022 ITV logo
BETFAIR ASCOT CHASE (Grade 1) (1) Distance : 2m 5f 8y
Prize : £85,425 Age : 5yo+ TRWs : 182 182 187 169 173 (Av 179) Race State : Declaration Runners : 8 Going : Soft
+ TRACKER- HINTS+ COMMENTS+ PEDIGREE- RECENT FORM- PRICES
Upgrade to Race Passes banner.
Form Silk Horse Name (Days Off) Jockey Flags Age Wgt TFR
Entry Pedigree Trainer (Equip) IPS
1/3111-312 Rex Dingle silk DASHEL DRASHER (27) CD BF Rex Dingle horse for course 9 11-7 173
1 b g PASSING GLANCE - SO LONG NOMADIC WAY (USA) Jeremy Scott 1
workmanlike gelding: has had breathing operation: smart hurdler: won handicap at Newbury (by ½ length from Beauport) in December: very smart chaser: recorded Ascot hat-trick in graduation event, bet365 Handicap Chase and Betfair Ascot Chase in 2020/21: 6/4, creditable short-head second of 6 to Two For Gold in Fleur De Lys Chase at Lingfield last time: stays 2¾m: acts on heavy going: front runner/

P221-3142 M. P. Walsh silk FAKIR D'OUDAIRIES (FR) (27) D M. P. Walsh 7 11-7 181
2 b g KAPGARDE (FR) - NIAGARIA DU BOIS (FR) GRAND TRESOR (FR) Joseph Patrick O'Brien, Ireland 2
medium-sized gelding: winning hurdler: top-class chaser: won Melling Chase at Aintree in 2020/21: also won Clonmel Oil Chase (by 15 lengths from Royal Rendezvous) in November: 7/2, respectable 12 lengths second of 4 to Allaho in Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles last time, bad mistake first: stays 21f: acts on heavy going.

2F445-412 Charlie Deutsch silk FANION D'ESTRUVAL (FR) (28) Charlie Deutsch horse in focus 7 11-7 178
3 b g ENRIQUE - URFE D'ESTRUVAL (FR) MARTALINE Venetia Williams hot trainer K
lengthy gelding: winning hurdler: high-class chaser: won handicap at Newbury (by 4½ lengths from Colorado Doc) in November: 3/1, shaped well when 1½ lengths second of 7 to Phoenix Way in bet365 Handicap Chase at Ascot last time, travelling strongly (made effort earlier than ideal): stays 21f: acts on soft

P3/3P5P-15 Brendan Powell silk LOSTINTRANSLATION (IRE) (55) CD Brendan Powell 10 11-7 174
4 b g FLEMENSFIRTH (USA) - FALIKA (FR) HERO'S HONOR (USA) Colin Tizzard (t)
strong gelding: has had breathing operations: winning hurdler: high-class chaser: won 1965 Chase at Ascot (by 4 lengths from Master Tommytucker) in November: 28/1, well below form in 9-runner King George VI Chase at Kempton last time: stays 3¼m: acts on soft going: wears tongue tie nowadays.

4/P1PU2-P1 James Bowen silk MISTER FISHER (IRE) (35) D James Bowen 8 11-7 179
5 b g JEREMY (USA) - THAT'S AMAZING (IRE) MARIGNAN (USA) Nicky Henderson kx
sturdy gelding: winning hurdler: high-class chaser: 15/8, won 4-runner Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton last time by 1¾ lengths from Eldorado Allen, leading before last: stays 23f: acts on soft

1422/4U-3 Harry Cobden silk SAINT CALVADOS (FR) (55) Harry Cobden horse in focus 9 11-7 180
6 b g SAINT DES SAINTS (FR) - LAMORRESE (FR) PISTOLET BLEU (IRE) Paul Nicholls (t)
lengthy gelding: winning hurdler: top-class chaser: left Harry Whittington/off 11 months, had breathing operation and in tongue strap, 25/1, shaped well when 12½ lengths third of 9 to Tornado Flyer in King George VI Chase at Kempton last time, unable to sustain effort after rapid headway to lead 4 out: should stay easy 3m: acts on heavy going: tried in cheekpieces.

2P313U-11 David Bass silk TWO FOR GOLD (IRE) (27) D David Bass 9 11-7 167
7 b g GOLD WELL - TWO OF EACH (IRE) SHERNAZAR Kim Bailey (s) i
tall gelding: winning hurdler: smart handicap chaser: won at Doncaster (by ½ length from Kauto Riko) in December: 10/1, followed up in 6-runner Fleur De Lys Chase at Lingfield last time by short head from Dashel Drasher, leading again dying strides after again idling flat: should stay beyond 3m: acts on heavy going: in cheekpieces last 5 starts.

3/23P-P Jack Tudor silk WAITING PATIENTLY (IRE) (91) CD Jack Tudor 11 11-7 ?
8 b g FLEMENSFIRTH (USA) - ROSSAVON (IRE) BENEFICIAL Christian Williams (s) 4
lengthy gelding: winning hurdler: top-class chaser at best (won this race in 2018): standout recent effort when 2¼ lengths second of 9 to Frodon in King George VI Chase at Kempton in 2020/21: left Ruth Jefferson/off 8 months, 15/2, pulled up in Betfair Chase won by A Plus Tard at Haydock last time: stays 3m: acts on soft going: wears cheekpieces nowadays.
 
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What was the thinking in runing Does He Know today for 29k and ruining his mark for the Ultima? He surely gets 10lbs for that?
 
Slim said:
What was the thinking in runing Does He Know today for 29k and ruining his mark for the Ultima? He surely gets 10lbs for that?
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Was saying it all the way through. Absolutely criminal. If NHC is the plan like ITV are saying, he’d be winning the Ultima off that mark. Very silly
 
wilsonl said:
The Tide Turns in the Boodles at 9/1 NRNB

Elliott was quoted in the RP Cheltenham stable preview earlier in the week as saying how he wanted to run him in the Boodles but he needed to get a 3rd run into him for him to qualify.

He’s just been declared to run in the Red Mills on Saturday in a race he wouldn’t be expected to win against the likes of Saldier, Quilixios, Darasso and Teahupoo, in spite of the weight allowance.

The last time Elliott entered a juvenile in this race was in 2019 was Couer Sublime. He finished down the field at Gowran before running 2nd to Pentland Hills in the Triumph when he had a rating of 138. That mark would have been lenient enough to run in the Boodles (then Fred Winter of course) but he was Elliott’s only realistic Triumph entry whereas this year he has at least two with very strong chances in that race.

The Tide Turns currently has an HRI rating of 135 and in the likelihood that a similar performance to Couer Sublime’s awaits him on Saturday that mark isn’t likely to change too much for the Boodles, even allowing for an Elliott BHA tax.

Having looked good on his debut in a 20 runner Punchestown maiden he performed more than creditably at the DRF behind Vauban and Fil Dor when he wasn’t given an overly hard time in the latter stages.

A mark of between 135 and c. 138 in the Boodles would (history suggests) see him carry something like 11st 5lb - 11st 8lb, which on his past performances wouldn’t be insurmountable

Were he to win on Saturday then he more than likely rules himself out of handicaps anyway so the Cheltenham NRNB kicks in. Similarly, were he to run deplorably then they may elect to skip Cheltenham altogether.
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That's a massive run.
 
wilsonl said:
The Tide Turns in the Boodles at 9/1 NRNB

Elliott was quoted in the RP Cheltenham stable preview earlier in the week as saying how he wanted to run him in the Boodles but he needed to get a 3rd run into him for him to qualify.

He’s just been declared to run in the Red Mills on Saturday in a race he wouldn’t be expected to win against the likes of Saldier, Quilixios, Darasso and Teahupoo, in spite of the weight allowance.

The last time Elliott entered a juvenile in this race was in 2019 was Couer Sublime. He finished down the field at Gowran before running 2nd to Pentland Hills in the Triumph when he had a rating of 138. That mark would have been lenient enough to run in the Boodles (then Fred Winter of course) but he was Elliott’s only realistic Triumph entry whereas this year he has at least two with very strong chances in that race.

The Tide Turns currently has an HRI rating of 135 and in the likelihood that a similar performance to Couer Sublime’s awaits him on Saturday that mark isn’t likely to change too much for the Boodles, even allowing for an Elliott BHA tax.

Having looked good on his debut in a 20 runner Punchestown maiden he performed more than creditably at the DRF behind Vauban and Fil Dor when he wasn’t given an overly hard time in the latter stages.

A mark of between 135 and c. 138 in the Boodles would (history suggests) see him carry something like 11st 5lb - 11st 8lb, which on his past performances wouldn’t be insurmountable

Were he to win on Saturday then he more than likely rules himself out of handicaps anyway so the Cheltenham NRNB kicks in. Similarly, were he to run deplorably then they may elect to skip Cheltenham altogether.
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Bet 365 has this looking like a NR
 
It was exactly the type of performance I was hoping for but hopefully the handicapper takes into account he was getting the allowance. 5lbs would put him on 140, as long as there is no BHA adjustment for Cheltenham which wouldn’t be the end of the world but not ideal.

2 or 3lb I was expecting if he put in a performance to suggest he could go close at Cheltenham. I was most pleased with his jumping, which was fast and accurate and would stand him in good stead in March.

Dangers everywhere though of course.
 
wilsonl said:
It was exactly the type of performance I was hoping for but hopefully the handicapper takes into account he was getting the allowance. 5lbs would put him on 140, as long as there is no BHA adjustment for Cheltenham which wouldn’t be the end of the world but not ideal.

2 or 3lb I was expecting if he put in a performance to suggest he could go close at Cheltenham. I was most pleased with his jumping, which was fast and accurate and would stand him in good stead in March.

Dangers everywhere though of course.
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He's a big player
 
wilsonl said:
It was exactly the type of performance I was hoping for but hopefully the handicapper takes into account he was getting the allowance. 5lbs would put him on 140, as long as there is no BHA adjustment for Cheltenham which wouldn’t be the end of the world but not ideal.

2 or 3lb I was expecting if he put in a performance to suggest he could go close at Cheltenham. I was most pleased with his jumping, which was fast and accurate and would stand him in good stead in March.

Dangers everywhere though of course.
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Is this The Tide Turns we're talking about?

Do you really think he'll go up for being beaten nearly 25 lengths?
 
Dunno DO, I hope not.

Great shout with Fakir Slim. I was on the fence for a while but the huge confidence put me on him at what in hindsight was a big price, albeit it was hard work at the end.
 
Yeah I’m surprised Allaho is still available at evens ( no more odds against on oddschecker) after today


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