Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

tiggers1972 said:
I think Hillcrest is pretty versatile ground wise looking at all of his wins.
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It's more a question of other horses not handling Haydock heavy but being rated as if they did and the winner is then considerably uprated. Leads to ridiculous RPRs.

Hillcrest is probably very good but Haydock heavy form is totally unreliable for the Festival.
 
archie said:
It's more a question of other horses not handling Haydock heavy but being rated as if they did and the winner is then considerably uprated. Leads to ridiculous RPRs.

Hillcrest is probably very good but Haydock heavy form is totally unreliable for the Festival.
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……and the earlier race I mentioned?
 
Regarding Hillcrest, trainer has said they could go straight to Aintree. He’s in at Cheltenham but they have a horse for the future and he won’t do both (Cheltenham and Aintree) this year.
 
Hillcrest was on my radar more for next year over fences but the way he powered through that ground on Saturday (as did the r/u to be fair) was in stark contrast to everything else that ran on that card (much like Constitution Hill on Tolworth day). I'm completely against the graded Irish staying novices, I thought the Ginto race was poor (form let down since) and the Nathaniel Lacy wasn't much better. I'm on The Nice Guy but would be afraid of this fella.
 
When I rate heavy ground form I allow for it in my pounds-per-length calcs.

Even at 0.5lbs per length the form is sh1t hot. He certainly got through it better than the Rendlesham winner who looked strong until very late in the race.

My slight concern is that big horses sometimes don't cope as well with better ground as they don't fully let themselves down on it.

But at the price and with the NRNB I'm more than happy to be involved.
 
Big horses do well on undulating courses and conversely, they don't perform to their best on flat tracks...
 
I've just checked Party Politics's old form.

I've always remembered him as a soft/heavy-ground bully but he actually only raced twice on heavy in his entire career and four of his top five RPRs were gained with the word 'good' in the description.

This gives me more hope Hillcrest going forward.

As an aside, the BHA site appears to be down so I can't find out his new mark.
 
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tiggers1972 said:
[Hillcrest] 148
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That's up 9lbs, which is fine. I see he's now top-rated on RPRs for the AB. I suspect he'll be top on ORs too.

The AB will take care of itself. I'm more interested in the runner-up right now. He's been raised 7lbs to 131. He goes straight into my tracker. He's handicapped like an Elliott bandit.
 
Does He Know would have next to no chance off 152 IMO.

He’s a promising horse but plenty of good horses have failed to defy that sort of mark with only Un Temps Pour Tout defying a mark higher than that in recent memory (going back at least 20 years plus) when winning off 155.

Corach Rambler on the other hand went off favourite in receipt of 3lb on Saturday and was making good inroads on the leader when unseating. He’s a strong stayer and would now be receiving 12lb at Cheltenham, where he won in December though admittedly on the New course.

Connections have said he’s likely to go here before Ayr and apart from the fact he needs to brush up his jumping, the only thing not to like is his price - he shortened all day yesterday.
 
Hadn’t seen that until now, and the Hillcrest and The Tide Turns prices by the look of it.

Are the bookies really being bowled over by punters who’ve read his article or are they just running for cover?

Id imagine a combination of the two, with emphasis on the latter.
 
Yes, good as he is DHK is going to struggle off that. Won well the other day, but didn’t beat anything of any note.
 
I have to say, I don't really get the fuss about Corach Rambler.

The time before last he appeared to struggle to go the pace in a soft-ground marathon at Warwick and last time I'm not convinced he was getting there at Ascot when he unseated.

I'm inclined to think these defeats were deliberate with the Scottish National in mind but right now I'm wary of him.
 
I AM MAXIMUS 14/1 coral cup.nrnb

Hendo says it goes for the ballymore but off a mark of 132 or 134 it would be interesting in the coral cup on its form with Hillcrest.
 
Lincoln - La Tihaty 14/1

It's very unlike me to get involved in the race this early and I only looked at the card because of unusual circumstances.

I suspect this fella is a Group horse in a handicap but I have to fess up to reading a fair bit into his profile:


  • Didn't appear until the December of his juvenile season, effectively starting out as a 3yo, and may well have won but for being intimidated by a rival.
  • Won his next two races.
  • Reappeared this season in a handicap and overcame a tardy start to win tidily.
  • Overcame a rise in ratings and class to win going away next time, earning a 5lb penalty for this but still 4lbs well in under his new mark of 105.
  • On ratings, he's improved 15lbs in a month. Who knows where that curve is going to plateau but the chances are it won't be within the next four weeks.

The negative is that so far he's only raced on the AW but I'm not too bothered about that. Varian doesn't mind bringing them along that way.
 
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