Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

One of my anti posts for the festival, Eclair D'ainay, (Grand Annual), has been entered for a class 2 chase at Chepstow on Saturday.

On the one hand its getting close to the festival and a win on Saturday might in theory spoil his handicap mark were he to win.

On the other hand maybe they want to get another run into him and exploit the soft ground they know he runs so well on, whereas they know he is not guaranteed to get this ground at Cheltenham next month.

All in all, its a case of..**** what have I done backing this one anti post and not NRNB. I have probably made a mistake, but will I get lucky enough to actually see him get there on Grand Annual day to get a run for my money!

Luck is needed sometimes.
 
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Outsider said:
I AM MAXIMUS 14/1 coral cup.nrnb

Hendo says it goes for the ballymore but off a mark of 132 or 134 it would be interesting in the coral cup on its form with Hillcrest.
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That could be a great shout.

The third from their run on New Years Day beaten 13 lengths has already gone up to 134.
 
I would agree even without looking into the horse's form.

IF it is genuinely a Ballymore horse (ie likely to be a contender at the business end, ergo circa 150) then a mark in the low 130s would seem very low. That might have been Hendo's way of giving us advance warning of a change in plan...

(Would it make the cut off that kind of mark?)
 
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Here’s his recent comments talking about his Cheltenham runners (entries). Given his usual top end optimism it’s pretty luke warm.

I AM MAXIMUS

Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

“I Am Maximus form is very good and that horse of Henry’s (Daly) is going over three miles. He is a good horse and I thought we nearly got him in trouble going to the last as there was nothing in it. He (Hillcrest) might have known a bit more or stayed a bit better but it was still a good performance. I think he is a classy horse.”
 
Desert Orchid said:
Last year was different due to fewer social runners but off the top of my head I can't recall what it was before. I usually think mid-130s for bottom weight in this and the County.
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Yeah good point, the other option could be the Martin Pipe?

Either way think we all agree that in a Handicap he's worth being on the right side of.
 
Coral Cup - Ratings & Bottom-Weights

2020: Fagan (138, 10-10)
2019: Oscar Knight (133, 10-6)
2018: Mischievious Max (135, 10-5)
2017: Sure Reef (136, 10-6)
2016: Hunters Hoof (139, 10-7)
2015: Daneking (138, 10-6)
2014: Foxcub (135, 10-7)
2013: Saphir River (134, 10-10)
2012: Cape Dutch (134, 10-0)

All jockey claims have been ignored. None of the above were placed.

Only Aux Ptits Soins (in 2015) has won the race in the last ten years off near-bottom-weight (139, 10-9). It was his first run in 6 months, his first run for the Nicholls yard, he was well-backed into 9/1 on the day, and he won a neck.
 
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Maybe Hendo will ring the hcapper and say " I really think I am maximus should go up to 140 due to the hillcrest form"
 
UP FOR PAROL county hurdle 50/1
Art approval pertemps 33/1
FARINET plate 25/1
BEN SIEGEL boodles 33/1
 
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Marb said:
One of my anti posts for the festival, Eclair D'ainay, (Grand Annual), has been entered for a class 2 chase at Chepstow on Saturday.

On the one hand its getting close to the festival and a win on Saturday might in theory spoil his handicap mark were he to win.

On the other hand maybe they want to get another run into him and exploit the soft ground they know he runs so well on, whereas they know he is not guaranteed to get this ground at Cheltenham next month.

All in all, its a case of..**** what have I done backing this one anti post and not NRNB. I have probably made a mistake, but will I get lucky enough to actually see him get there on Grand Annual day to get a run for my money!

Luck is needed sometimes.
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Gets his beloved soft ground tomorrow should be very hard to beat.

Re Grand Annual I have no idea how a win tomorrow will affect his chances. They probably won't run if its not soft come cheltenham which is probably unlikely.

Phoenix Way 10/1 for the big chase tomorrow. What a price that is...
 
Marb said:
Gets his beloved soft ground tomorrow should be very hard to beat.

Re Grand Annual I have no idea how a win tomorrow will affect his chances. They probably won't run if its not soft come cheltenham which is probably unlikely.

Phoenix Way 10/1 for the big chase tomorrow. What a price that is...
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I have Eclair clear top but have convinced myself tomorrow is about getting a couple of pounds off for the GA.

Much as I like the PW form, I need to be convinced it stays three miles.
 
Outsider said:
Phoenix way not in the plate.
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I think there is a real possibility he won't run at the festival and also another real possibility that we are overlooking that his trainer and jockey has put us all away about him improving for the 2M5F race the last day. In the sense that they didn't tell a lie but there were other factors at play.

One factor was the time before when second to Annsam wasn't actually a bad run at all and he looked physically in much better shape next time when he beat Fanion and was staying on right through the line.

I really believe this is a very good horse and very good horses win very good races.

He reportedly has had a few little problems in the past but hopefully he is over those now.

I guess in summary what I am trying to say is I think the idea he doesn't stay three miles will be proved to be baloney and in fact after tomorrow we might wonder what price he is for the Grand National and what weight will he carry. They surely haven't entered him there if they don't think he stays 3 miles?

There you go. There is an opinion.
 
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Marb said:
One factor was the time before when second to Annsam wasn't actually a bad run at all and he looked physically in much better shape next time when he beat Fanion and was staying on right through the line.

I really believe this is a very good horse and very good horses win very good races.
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It was better than "not a bad run at all". It was top handicap form.

However, the Form Book comment said "weakened gradually", after which he was dropped back in trip to earn the comment "strong challenge last, led run-in, pushed out" in winning arguably a much better race.

This is a very good horse who is very well handicapped and will win a very good race. I just have doubts about whether it will be at three miles.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It was better than "not a bad run at all". It was top handicap form.

However, the Form Book comment said "weakened gradually", after which he was dropped back in trip to earn the comment "strong challenge last, led run-in, pushed out" in winning arguably a much better race.

This is a very good horse who is very well handicapped and will win a very good race. I just have doubts about whether it will be at three miles.
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Did Phoenix Way get up? Christ it looked a horrible fall.

My only hope for Eclair Dainay now is having looked again at his overall form he has only run on good-to soft about three times last year and was second a couple times on better ground so maybe he will be fine on it for Cheltenham in which case he would have an outside each way chance.

He doesn't seem to see his races out well enough though and although he will go down 2 or 3lbs in the handicap the Grand Annual is obviously a big ask.

Money down the drain I think.
 
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Marb said:
Did Phoenix Way get up? Christ it looked a horrible fall.

My only hope for Eclair Dainay now is having looked again at his overall form he has only run on good-to soft about three times last year and was second a couple times on better ground so maybe he will be fine on it for Cheltenham in which case he would have an outside each way chance.

He doesn't seem to see his races out well enough though and although he will go down 2 or 3lbs in the handicap the Grand Annual is obviously a big ask.

Money down the drain I think.
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He was giving the winner 21lb today mate.it was a big ask.at least yours never got a penalty.
 
Outsider said:
He was giving the winner 21lb today mate.it was a big ask.at least yours never got a penalty.
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Aye, seems a lot doesn’t it, until you muse that the average horse weighs 1200 lbs. 21 lbs maybe makes a difference, but can’t believe worrying about the odd pound or five does.
 
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