Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Some prices out there for Newmarket next week and Garrus is too big at 9/2 for the Abernant on Wednesday. Ran well enough at Donny first time up when he didn't have a great passage and he appeals here against largely handicappers and Ebro River who heads the market and simply must be opposed on age grounds - 3yos very very rarely take this.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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I had a terrible day today, Nick, so feel entirely justified in telling you this:
Fu*ck. Off.
Yes I would take on Ebro River too but with the bigger priced Existant.
Cheveley Park bred and formerly with John Gosden, but then switched to Stuart Williams yard after being gelded. He won two decent handicaps on the all weather in recent months, with his last win well-franked by the second and fourth horses home.
The last day's form figure misleads as he was very slow out the gate and then finishing off really well. He won his maiden here at Newmarket so the track will be fine and assuming he is declared he can be the surprise package in this race on Wednesday.
See what's declared tomorrow.
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So the 8 runners including my fancy and Euro's early pick Garrus in the Abernant then...
I am hoping Richard Hannons System skips the Nell Gywn tomorrow and might go for the handicap on Wednesday instead where she has also been declared.
System won a listed race here last season and then ran a respectable 8th in a big sales race at York. I like her for this handicap off a mark of 91. I think she can run very well.
I am hoping Richard Hannons System skips the Nell Gywn tomorrow and might go for the handicap on Wednesday instead where she has also been declared.
System won a listed race here last season and then ran a respectable 8th in a big sales race at York. I like her for this handicap off a mark of 91. I think she can run very well.
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System taken out of the Nell Gywn and runs in the handicap tomorrow. Can't complain!
System taken out of the Nell Gywn and runs in the handicap tomorrow. Can't complain!
Was just touched off very unlucky, Euro.
Was just touched off very unlucky, Euro.
Desert Orchid
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I'm hoping to do the Whitbread this evening but decided to get in early and take 6/1 (boosted to 13/2) about Enrilo as I suspect it will contract to about 4/1 by Saturday. Nicholls has never hidden that the horse has been trained for this race all season and Cobden is already booked for it so there's every reason to believe it will run and run well. Whether it will win remains to be seen, as does whether I end up fancying something more strongly but if it does nearly halve in price by Saturday I can always lay it off for a potential return to no risk and just have it running for me.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Price has gone now but I couldn't resist Mister Fisher at the odds available yesterday evening for the Oaksey Chase (he was 7/1 at Unibet). I know he's a bandit but that was an insult.
Long range I've taken 20s about Dragon Symbol for the Diamond Jubilee (Platinum this year) Has he had a trainer upgrade you ask? On the face of it for sure but Varian hasn't had any top class sprinters. I think Cape Byron is the best he's had. There is a danger he could go King's Stand of course but I think he's better over 6.
Long range I've taken 20s about Dragon Symbol for the Diamond Jubilee (Platinum this year) Has he had a trainer upgrade you ask? On the face of it for sure but Varian hasn't had any top class sprinters. I think Cape Byron is the best he's had. There is a danger he could go King's Stand of course but I think he's better over 6.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Appleby has had a rock solid start to the season and the 2000 is plainly between the two he trains at the top of the market but his lesser horses are hella short most of the time and there is an angle in opposing a lot of them. Yesterday the price diff between Path of Thunder (handicapper) and Happy Power (solid Group 3 horse) in that race at Leicester was ridiculous. Next Friday Noble Truth heads the market for the King Charles II ahead of Gubbass and that's just wrong. The Hannon horse ran a very solid race in the Greenham and is a bet at 7/2 (Moore booked so imagine the plan is to run)
barjon
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Same with Ruling Dynasty and Magisterial in the later race.
Desert Orchid
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It's a bit far off yet but it's already swirling around my head that High Definition might be working towards getting into the Ebor off near bottom weight.
Today, off 109, he was beaten by a 107 and a 106 who had a length between them so the handicapper probably won't alter their marks but the 4lbs beating that HD got might be applied to his mark, if not immediately then maybe down the line.
One more modest run after that and he could be down to 100. I'd certainly be interested in him off that mark in the Ebor.
Today, off 109, he was beaten by a 107 and a 106 who had a length between them so the handicapper probably won't alter their marks but the 4lbs beating that HD got might be applied to his mark, if not immediately then maybe down the line.
One more modest run after that and he could be down to 100. I'd certainly be interested in him off that mark in the Ebor.
I have had a look at this Saturdays racing.
The Temple Stakes at Haydock is a tricky race. I am tempted to back something against Winter Power who I know is very good but first time out here and they might have an eye on bigger targets later in the season.
Then there is the Henry Candy runner who could still improve but is a bit hit and miss.
Kings Lynn could run a big race but then why is it 7s with a horse who has form with him in Moss Gill 16s.
I like Moss Gill but is he merely playing for places here?
Existant is a quickly improving horse who I put up on its penultimate start where he ran o.k but couldn't land a blow but he then ran a huge race next time out when second in a group three.
This is a group two though and is he playing for places?
Then there is Last Crusader who was impressive the last day. Can he go on and run a big race here?
All in all I think I will give the race a miss from a betting point of view.
Too tricky for my liking.
The Temple Stakes at Haydock is a tricky race. I am tempted to back something against Winter Power who I know is very good but first time out here and they might have an eye on bigger targets later in the season.
Then there is the Henry Candy runner who could still improve but is a bit hit and miss.
Kings Lynn could run a big race but then why is it 7s with a horse who has form with him in Moss Gill 16s.
I like Moss Gill but is he merely playing for places here?
Existant is a quickly improving horse who I put up on its penultimate start where he ran o.k but couldn't land a blow but he then ran a huge race next time out when second in a group three.
This is a group two though and is he playing for places?
Then there is Last Crusader who was impressive the last day. Can he go on and run a big race here?
All in all I think I will give the race a miss from a betting point of view.
Too tricky for my liking.
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Desert Orchid
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I have looked again I now have it between Existent and Last Crusader, (both each way).
I have decided I will roll the dice on Existent. He could turn out to be improving over the five furlong trip. This might be his day. I hope he gets out the stalls sharply as my only worry is he's been slow out the gates once or twice.
I see fellow forumite Gigs has gone for Last Crusader which sums up this race perfectly for me - as soon as I write one horse down I start doubting it.
I am sticking with Existent each way. Final decision.
The fact he has improved 22lbs on his rating since leaving John Gosdens and going to Stuart Williams yard plus the gelding operation....well that gelding operation looks to have brought about out a load of improvement in him. Maybe he hasn't stopped improving.
Only for my each way L63 mind. So no hard feelings if he doesn't deliver.
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Desert Orchid
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From the stuff I put out last night:
This is a poor excuse for a G2. Winter Power would be a good thing if she could be relied upon to bring her A-game but that A-game tends to come at York. Her highest rating away from there is 10lbs lower. Came From The Dark (6/1) goes well here and strikes me as the percentage call. I’ve taken the price with the BOG.
Edit - this prompted me to check the betting. CFTD is out to 15/2 in a few places. That's a bit of a bummer but drifters have been known to win...
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With four or five being backed I always feel in these scenarios one of them will get very close if not beat Winter Power today.
I am content with Existent. Improved 22lbs in four or five months since being gelded. He can go close today.
Good luck all forum members this afternoon.
I hope someone wins a few quid.
I am content with Existent. Improved 22lbs in four or five months since being gelded. He can go close today.
Good luck all forum members this afternoon.
I hope someone wins a few quid.
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Desert Orchid
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Market weakness was prophetic for CFTD. Checked out tamely.
Crap race.
Hope somebody punted the winner. I know Paul Kealy tipped KL in the Weekender at a nice price but I couldn't justify following him in.
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