Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Vadeni - The PDJC is worthless since it went 10f - he beat a bunch of milers who wouldn't be in the race if it was 12f. His only rivals were poorly drawn

Desert Crown is a strong contender

Emily Upjohn - If Gosden goes for the ******* Ribblesdale with this one? This is Thady's doing the little ******. No chance she wins the Arc if she takes in Royal Ascot so soon after Epsom.

Hurricane Lane - Not sure I trust the trainer to keep a top 12f horse at the top of his game for 2 seasons.
 
Euronymous said:
Vadeni - The PDJC is worthless since it went 10f - he beat a bunch of milers who wouldn't be in the race if it was 12f. His only rivals were poorly drawn

Desert Crown is a strong contender

Emily Upjohn - If Gosden goes for the ******* Ribblesdale with this one? This is Thady's doing the little ******. No chance she wins the Arc if she takes in Royal Ascot so soon after Epsom.

Hurricane Lane - Not sure I trust the trainer to keep a top 12f horse at the top of his game for 2 seasons.
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Vadeni was racing over 10f+ and lapped it up and will relish the Arc trip
He showed an amazing turn of foot leaving 10f winner El Bodegon looking like a tree.

It's not what you beat it's how you do it and he was more impressive in the JC than Desert Crown was in the Dante.

Like the owner's Zarkava he has a devestating turn of foot and is a steal at his current price of 8/1 .
 
There's plenty decent form over 12f if you look a little deeper but that's not the problem.

His trainer says he has earmarked the 10f route for the moment and will only go to the Arc if he cleans up there first.

If he was just being aimed at the Arc you wouldn't get a siff at 8/1 but the bookies are banking on him not running.

Personally for me he looked like he could have gone round again the other day and was the most impressive winner I have seen in a very long time,
 
I never seem to catch the Johnston horses right but West End Charmer is too big @ 16s 5 Places in the Wolferton

As long as they don’t overdo the watering tomorrow he’ll get his favoured ground and from the inside draw Fanning can get him prominent as Buick did in the Duke of Edinburgh here a couple of years back when the combination of 12f and soft ground saw him give way late on.

This track can suit front runners and the drop back in trip on quick ground from stall 2 will be perfect. He was given far too much to do last time behind Majestic Dawn, as they all were.
 
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Britannia - Whoputfiftyinyou 8/1 - won the Haydock race in which Mighty Ulysses was second and Outgate five lengths away in third. I thought Outgate would have been involved in the finish but for running out of room and he franked the form in style on Saturday in a £100k handicap, never looking in danger. I seriously fancy Mighty Ulysses to go close in the SJP on Tuesday and, if he does, there's no way WPFIY will be 8/1 for this. In summary, I'm really just putting my money where my mouth is but nowhere near as heavily stakes-wise as with Outgate yesterday. Too many imponderables with the draw and pace at Ascot, before we even start on about watering...
 
The one I took out of the race for the Arc was Al Hakeem. He's highly regarded and we won't see the best of him until he's stepped up to a mile and half.
 
Sense of Duty is a bet at 10/3 in the Chipchase this Saturday. She beat Flotus and Benefit in the Cecil Frail at Haydock last month and both those fillies have franked the form since. I'd fear Harry Three obviously but I'm not convinced Ebro River has trained on and Edraak is clearly held on Benefit's Salisbury win.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Arc - Tuesday 16/1 - I can accept that Emily Upjohn (8/1) was the moral winner of the Oaks and I can see her running as well as did Taghrooda, who was 9/2f when a good third to Treve, come October but I reckon by then there is every chance Tuesday will have improved past her. The Gosden filly is fully three months older than Tuesday. By October the maturity gap should have narrowed (based on the wfa scale) a wee bit and I think the price difference is too much. There's a long summer ahead and a lot of water to flow under a lot of bridges but I think these are two good fillies who might not have a strong older contingent to worry about.
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Tuesday's supplementation for the Irish Derby has prompted me to go in again at 16/1 for the Arc. I presume they believe they really only have Westover to beat and I suspect the latter had a harder race in the Derby plus he's the one who now needs to travel. It also hints at a change of plan. Were she to win the Irish Derby they could put her by for a September prep ahead of peaking in October but in any event if she were to win on Saturday she'll be 5/1 tops.
 
A lot of races priced up now, July meeting and Goodwood. Taken some prices:


Yonafis 10f h/cap at the July Meeting on the Friday. Ran well from the wrong side in the Britannia, bred to improve for a step up in trip (by Golden Horn). He's also in the John Smith's but as a 92 rated 3yo he aint getting in that - 20/1

Star of Orion also 20s in the International on KG day.

Lusail 8/1 Lennox. Aldaary heads the market but he's needs soft ground. The older horses are beatable.
 
The Lancashire Oaks has attacted some interesting entries. I remember Viola the James Fanshawe mare from the last day. She finished like a train but this is a step up in class. Maybe the current price of 14/1 mitigates this though. I'm not sure?

I will be following my tracker Inchicore if declared for The Old Newton Cup. She has a big handicap in her now.

Alenquer to go very close in the Eclipse.
 
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Marb said:
The Lancashire Oaks has attacted some interesting entries. I remember Viola the James Fanshawe mare from the last day. She finished like a train but this is a step up in class. Maybe the current price of 14/1 mitigates this though. I'm not sure?
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It's a really good race. Viola is backable as are the filly that beat her last time and Stay Alert who has two really good pieces of form. At the head of the market you have Free Wind who is a very good filly but this is first time out and that imo makes her opposable. The Varian filly was poor in the John Porter, maybe she hasn't trained on? Alpinista I don't think will run. Kawida is priced similar to Stay Alert which is wrong and Lilac Road carries a penalty...also a questionable stayer.

Stay Alert 9/1 is the bet.
 
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There's cut in the ground at Haydock and it could stay that way for Saturday.

Sandown

1.50 - This looks an open Group 3 and various cases could be made for several horses. The one I have just sided with on the basis of the possible improvement trajectory is Nymphadora.

She won early as a two year old in a listed race but didn't really do a great deal on the track since then. She's had just two starts this season. The improvement from her first run to second run at Royal Ascot was substantial.

She was second in a valuable showcase handicap against a real big improver or 'job horse' as I think some would put it. While she needs to improve again, I feel there's every chance she will do so.

2.25 Tahitian Prince never did much as a two or three year old, but after being gelded, he really showed his true worth as a four year old, when winning four races last season from seven starts.

He has only been on the track a couple of times this season, not running his best races, but Richard Hannon has given him a nice break of about six weeks, so at double figure odds off an exploitable handicap mark in the high 80's, I will give Tahitian Prince another chance.

3.00 Heredia Heredia Heredia! She brings top class handicap form to the table. I will be backing her at odds against.

3.35 I am happy to take on the field with Alenquer. I reckon it will take a very good one to beat him. He is actually value odds at 7/1 or thereabouts.

Haydock

2.05 The Mark Prescott horse Sea King at the top of the handicap is interesting, but I'll take a chance that Percy Jones will go close. His ran respectably in second place the last day and must be showing Hughie Morrison something good at home to step him up in class like this. I feel he'll run well.

2.40 I've followed Euro in with Stay Alert. She has excellent form. I like the fact she has won on ground with cut in it.

3.15 Gaassee I backed the last day but not for me at the likely price. I am taking a chance that Alan King has Inchicore E/W in some good form. I think she missed the cut in one of the handicaps at Royal Ascot. She's the type I can see Alan King doing well with and a bit of an insult of a price at 16/1. I can't not back her at these odds.

Fingers crossed and good luck all for Saturday.
 
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Marb said:
There's cut in the ground at Haydock and it could stay that way for Saturday.

Sandown

1.50 - This looks an open Group 3 and various cases could be made for several horses. The one I have just sided with on the basis of the possible improvement trajectory is Nymphadora.

She won early as a two year old in a listed race but didn't really do a great deal on the track since then. She's had just two starts this season. The improvement from her first run to second run at Royal Ascot was substantial.

She was second in a valuable showcase handicap against a real big improver or 'job horse' as I think some would put it. While she needs to improve again, I feel there's every chance she will do so.

2.25 Tahitian Prince never did much as a two or three year old, but after being gelded, he really showed his true worth as a four year old, when winning four races last season from seven starts.

He has only been on the track a couple of times this season, not running his best races, but Richard Hannon has given him a nice break of about six weeks, so at double figure odds off an exploitable handicap mark in the high 80's, I will give Tahitian Prince another chance.

3.00 Heredia Heredia Heredia! She brings top class handicap form to the table. I will be backing her at odds against.

3.35 I am happy to take on the field with Alenquer. I reckon it will take a very good one to beat him. He is actually value odds at 7/1 or thereabouts.

Haydock

2.05 The Mark Prescott horse Sea King at the top of the handicap is interesting, but I'll take a chance that Percy Jones will go close. His ran respectably in second place the last day and must be showing Hughie Morrison something good at home to step him up in class like this. I feel he'll run well.

2.40 I've followed Euro in with Stay Alert. She has excellent form. I like the fact she has won on ground with cut in it.

3.15 Gaassee I backed the last day but not for me at the likely price. I am taking a chance that Alan King has Inchicore E/W in some good form. I think she missed the cut in one of the handicaps at Royal Ascot. She's the type I can see Alan King doing well with and a bit of an insult of a price at 16/1. I can't not back her at these odds.

Fingers crossed and good luck all for Saturday.
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Interesting quote from Alan King about Inchicore's potential to win a big handicap but only on rain softened ground.

She'll get this tomorrow at Haydock. I know the favourite will be many people's certainty of the day and this could well transpire but I will be disappointed if Inchicore can't at least grab a place.

She stays further than 1M4F so I wouldn't want her too far back early on. She needs to be half a dozen lengths off the leaders and no worse than midfield in terms of race position.
 
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I'm on a back to lay venture today. Vadeni I have backed at 8/1.

If he wins the Eclipse and wins it well going away his odds will be halved for the Arc.

All being well I will take my stake back out and have a bet to nothing.

Richard Hannon's Herdia was backed last night like money had gone out of fashion
Sorry Marb but can't see us getting a sniff ar evens now as the opposition amounts to very little.


Silvestre De Sousa comes in for the ride on Tippy Toes 8.8 EW who ran really well last time under the circumstances, Could go close

Checkandchallenge 4.9 will find things easier in this grade and is worth another chance

I've gone in heavily AP already on Vadini Maybe a bit too heavy as I may have under estimated Native Trail

Silvestre De Sousa takes the ride on Aldhaja 9.2 EW in a wide open race

Picual Ryan Moore 2.8 is worth a large bet but I'll hang back and see how others run first

If you haven't craked it by the last race do yourself a favour, log off buy a 6 pack while you have some money left:)
 
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I would be sweet on Sibila Spain in the Falmouth if, (and it's a big if) Inspiral wasn't in the field.

I suppose 20/1 is an each way price still. I'd have Sibila as best of the rest for this race anyway.

See how firm the ground gets.

As according to that judge Tanlic Sibila won't act on good to firm..:)
 
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Marb said:
I would be sweet on Sibila Spain in the Falmouth if, (and it's a big if) Inspiral wasn't in the field.

I suppose 20/1 is an each way price still. I'd have Sibila as best of the rest for this race anyway.

See how firm the ground gets.

As according to that judge Tanlic Sibila won't act on good to firm..:)
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Final decs for this should come through tomorrow.

Hoping for at least 8 runners both for the each way terms and to keep Sibila's price fair..
 
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Possibly the busiest Saturday of the year upcoming and at present my ante-post bets are:

Mahrajaan in the John Smith's
Caturra/Korker dutch in the City Walls. I want to be against Winter Power as I'm not convinced she's trained on. The former's Scurry form was franked by Mitbaahy on Saturday and the latter was really impressive off 95 in a handicap over c/d at the Dante meeting before throwing his race away at the stalls at the Royal meeting (beaten less than 4l but must have lost half a dozen out the gates.)
 
Isn’t Equilateral in that race (City Walls)? Met loads of trouble at Sandown last Saturday and not put under any pressure at the end so he might not be feeling the race. Probably too soon, but be interesting if he turns up.
 
Euronymous said:
Yonafis 10f h/cap at the July Meeting on the Friday. Ran well from the wrong side in the Britannia, bred to improve for a step up in trip (by Golden Horn). He's also in the John Smith's but as a 92 rated 3yo he aint getting in that - 20/1
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Post Impressionist heads the market for this but Haggas has jocked Marquand onto Yonafis. Very pleased and he's into around 8/1 now (10s at Sky but I can't get anything on with them.)
 
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