Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Afters so apologies but I had a little on the winner after Flaming Rib boosted his form in the Sandy Lane. Really nice run from Twilight Calls who has a chance in the King's Stand if the ground is rattling.
Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.
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barjon
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Given Ed Walker’s usual ott hyperbole about his runners, he was pretty luke warm about CFTD. “……training well and looking for a lot better this time….” He has an entry in the King’s Stand and I reckon that’s what he’s being prepared for.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Looking ahead to Epsom I haven't got strong feelings about anything for the two classics but I've got one in mind for the Dash (no prices yet) and Hukum is too big at 7s for the Coronation Cup. I don't really know what to make of the Godolphin who heads the market but I suspect he's a boat.
Desert Orchid
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Walker has since reported that CFTD will have a wind op. He said the jockey reported it made a terrible noise.
(Apparently it sounded like, "Go easy, mate, I've got the milk round in the morning!")
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Only 6 left in this and Hukum into 9/2. Also on the Friday Astro King is interesting in the 9f handicap - this is the perfect trip for this horse and whilst he's off a mark in the early 100s nowadays he's proven he can compete off that rating in the past and of course Epsom is one of the best weight carrying tracks in the country. Taken 6/1.
Desert Orchid
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I've only just got round to doing the Coronation Cup and I have to agree with Euro that Hukum's price (11/2 this evening, taken) is all wrong. However, with only two places going, I've also opted for a hefty ew bet at 3/1 w/o Pyledriver. That will get me a return of some sort if it ends up third but I do fancy it to improve past the favourite.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
That's a nice price Dessie but what about the Godolphin beast? I can't make him out
Desert Orchid
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He's clearly a horse of potential and if he's the only Godolphin runner they must like him, but his price appears to me to have a lot of improvement already factored in. I think his and Hukum's prices are the wrong way round.
It's not a great renewal, though, is it?
It's not a great renewal, though, is it?
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
It's an intriguing edition imo.
Desert Orchid
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It's very intriguing and I hope one or two show themselves to be 125+ animals but I'm struggling for enthusiasm for it.
Well done with Hukum fellas.
Desert Orchid
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Two winners in one race :lol:
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I've backed a horse entered this weekend at a track I have a mixed record at (York) trained by someone I've never been convinced about and a jockey isn't booked yet so I'm not certain he'll run. Oh, an he's an ex Hamdan sold in the partial dispersal of his stock. Those are the negs about Mandoob. The positives is his run behind Al Aasy at Ascot looks rampant form after recent boosts by Third Realm and Universal Order, he has one or two nice pieces of form as a 3yo which suggests they could have kept him at Shadwell - and the potential oppo Saturday looks a bit threadbare on quality. Hamish is decent but is vulnerable under a penalty, I don't rate Kemari, I do rate Without a Fight but have stamina doubts. John Leeper and Enemy are ultra meh.
Desert Orchid
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Arc - Tuesday 16/1 - I can accept that Emily Upjohn (8/1) was the moral winner of the Oaks and I can see her running as well as did Taghrooda, who was 9/2f when a good third to Treve, come October but I reckon by then there is every chance Tuesday will have improved past her. The Gosden filly is fully three months older than Tuesday. By October the maturity gap should have narrowed (based on the wfa scale) a wee bit and I think the price difference is too much. There's a long summer ahead and a lot of water to flow under a lot of bridges but I think these are two good fillies who might not have a strong older contingent to worry about.
I could see her dropping back to 10f.
Desert Orchid
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On breeding, yes, so could I but she was pretty strong late in the Oaks without Moore going for everything. He also said he felt she would win regardless of what else happened in the race.
Are Coolmore likely to have another Arc contender?
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I'm not a stats guy but he's never won the Arc with a 3yo. To overcome that Tuesday would need to be Enable level good or her trainer would need to maybe give her a break between the Curragh Oaks and the Vermeille.
Desert Orchid
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Yep, I'm aware of that but I'm not a stats guy either :lol:
But surely it's a monkey O'Brien/Coolmore will want off their back sooner rather than later?
How many of the previous Coolmore good fillies were born in June?
Why do you say she'd need to be Enable good level? Not every winning filly is at that level. As I see it, she just needs to be good enough to beat what else turns up. I reckon with the allowance she could give Desert Crown and/or Vadeni a race.
Maybe the Irish Derby will throw up another contender, who knows, but I just reckon 8/1 is probably Emily Upjohn's price so 16/1 strikes as generous for one that beat her.
But surely it's a monkey O'Brien/Coolmore will want off their back sooner rather than later?
How many of the previous Coolmore good fillies were born in June?
Why do you say she'd need to be Enable good level? Not every winning filly is at that level. As I see it, she just needs to be good enough to beat what else turns up. I reckon with the allowance she could give Desert Crown and/or Vadeni a race.
Maybe the Irish Derby will throw up another contender, who knows, but I just reckon 8/1 is probably Emily Upjohn's price so 16/1 strikes as generous for one that beat her.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Enable ran in all the big summer races so she was at a disadvantage in terms of the normal 3yo type ideal prep for the Arc. That is the main reason AOB has never won the race with one of that age group - he never gives them a break. Enable was that good (plus bad renewal) she overcame.
EDIT:
Speaking of which EU may run in the Ribblesdale - which imo fucks her Arc claims - and my Ascot AP book.
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Desert Orchid
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I accept all that, Euro, but they say the essence of stupidity is doing the same thing over and expecting a different result. AOB ain't stupid. At some point he has to target the Arc and give up on the heavy summer campaign. I'm hoping (perhaps against hope) he campaigns Tuesday with the Arc as the target.
Desert Orchid
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Yes. I can see him being well fanciable.
He solves the problem of APOB giving them a break. He has no choice with him.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Tuesday for the Arc? have you all gone looney?
Honestly talk about throwing shite at a wall and hoping some will stick.
Prix du Jockey Club winner Vadeni, Epsom Derby Winner Desert Crown, Emily Upjohn who should have eaten her alive in the Oaks, Hurricane Lane beaten under 1 length last season
Must all be going to miss the race???? She is 16/1 because she has no chance and I'd even be prepared to say she wont even run in the Arc
Honestly talk about throwing shite at a wall and hoping some will stick.
Prix du Jockey Club winner Vadeni, Epsom Derby Winner Desert Crown, Emily Upjohn who should have eaten her alive in the Oaks, Hurricane Lane beaten under 1 length last season
Must all be going to miss the race???? She is 16/1 because she has no chance and I'd even be prepared to say she wont even run in the Arc