Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

chaumi said:
Going by this...and it's regularly (enough) dangerous to go by what a trainer says + there are some variables to factor in...but.....


[FONT=&]"He has been running well this season on ground that would have been quicker than ideal. He is in good form and when we get a bit of rain, he will win a big handicap."

[/FONT]Unless they chuck an awful lot down, and there is zero sign of rain for weeks potentially.....you can imagine what's likely to happen.
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Yes,he probably does need a bit of rain but it was g/f at goodwood.
It's just the price that I think is too big.
 
Marb said:
Someone mentioned Great Ambassador after the stewards cup for the Ayr Gold Cup. He is currently joint fav at 8/1 for the Great St Wilfred at Ripon on Saturday.
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Need a high draw.ive had a small bet on Music society at 33/1.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I agree and will be backing it, Outsider. It definitely has a decent handicap in it. The weights have been out I think since before Goodwood, though, so the recent adjustments won't impact. I wouldn't put it past Orbaan to defy his penalties, either.
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I went on a clipper website last night and it seemed to me as if the weights weren't out yet.
 
Those are the ratings/weights as per the date of release. Amendments for penalties will be annotated accordingly.

What you might find is that if you click on a horse for its profile, its up-to-date rating will show and if the rating has gone up or down since the publication of the weights then it will be different from what's on the card.
 
Nothing original in this selection but I can't help thinking we saw the 2000 Guineas winner the other day.

It was clear by halfway that Bradsell wasn't running its race so let's leave him out of calcs and concentrate on the other horses.

5th - Apache Outlaw: this is not the first time Kevin Blake has been very positive about this horse going into a race. He's Joseph's racing manager and told everyone on the early programme on Saturday that this one would run a big race and outrun his odds. Now, It wouldn't be hard to outrun odds of 80/1 but let's say he did run to his OR of 100. The winner has given him a 14 length (ie 42lbs) beating. So, best case scenario: LBB is a 142+ horse.

4th - Bradsell: will he even ever race again?

3rd - Shartash: OR 106 on the back of a short-head defeat by Blackbeard, which a number of pundits were putting up for this race before its withdrawal. LBB has beaten him 7.5 lengths, or 22/23lbs, bringing LBB out on 128/129.

2nd - Persian Force: career RPRs, earliest first, of 99, 101, 106 and 110 pointed to a progressive but perhaps not brilliant juvenile. Would it be unreasonable to expect him to have run to at least 110 here? LBB has beaten him 7 lengths, or 21lbs, so LBB comes out on 131+.

Now, cards on the table, I have never entirely subscribed to the accepted poundage for race distances for juveniles being the same as for mature horses. It's a bit like putting your two fingers on a touch-screen and reducing the entire page. I just don't know by how much. But let's say 5%? (What does an average 2yo weigh compared with a mature horse?)

By this reckoning, Little Big Bear is a 135-125 juvenile, the latter being entirely conservative.

In effect, he could stand still between now and May and still win an average 2000 Guineas. Easily.

Although he's by No Nay Never, his dosage figures are entirely inconclusive and don't rule out effectiveness at a mile but it looked to me like the horse was still going strongly under Moore some way after the line the other day. Not that Moore was at any pains to stop him; I'd proffer the notion that Moore was feeling the horse out for further by not asking him to slow down too much. The other runners had stopped long before he did.

It's early days but I think 9/2 is one helluva price even this far out. Sure, lots of water has to run under a slalom of bridges between now and the end of the season, let alone May, but I'm now pretty heavily involved at that price despite already having Naval Power onside at 12/1.

Exciting times ahead either way.
 
I think Shadwell have found a hot one in Anmaat, but it must have surprised them a bit since he doesn’t seem to have any major (or any come to that) entries as yet. After winning the John Smith’s on his return he had little option than pattern races and I thought his win in the Group 3 Rose of Lancaster on Saturday was really high class. What really caught my eye was that everything bar Anmaat was off the bridle by the 2 furlong mark with Jim Crowley sitting quiet and quiet and quiet until he eventually came off the bridle approaching the final furlong as he went on to win by an easy four lengths. I’m not a big ante post player, but I wish I could find something to back him in while he’s still a bit under the radar.
 
barjon said:
I think Shadwell have found a hot one in Anmaat, but it must have surprised them a bit since he doesn’t seem to have any major (or any come to that) entries as yet. After winning the John Smith’s on his return he had little option than pattern races and I thought his win in the Group 3 Rose of Lancaster on Saturday was really high class. What really caught my eye was that everything bar Anmaat was off the bridle by the 2 furlong mark with Jim Crowley sitting quiet and quiet and quiet until he eventually came off the bridle approaching the final furlong as he went on to win by an easy four lengths. I’m not a big ante post player, but I wish I could find something to back him in while he’s still a bit under the radar.
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Not under the radar now BJ.
Racing tv the verdict has just showed him winning and the Irish champion stakes could be next.
 
He was very impressive. Been perusing the markets and he's not in the ICS list or the Champion Stakes.

A few thoughts though:

Is State of Rest going for the Juddmonte? 12s very reasonable.

I've backed Changingoftheguard in the Voltigeur. He holds the fav and is much better than he showed at Ascot. That was a tough assignment so soon after the Derby.

Mitbaahy. He lost a length and was bumped at the start at Goodwood and was then taken to the wrong part of the track. Ignore that run. He's in the Sprint Cup which seems a big stretch, but he's also in the sprint at the Curragh on Irish Champions weekend and Powers and the Betfair Sportsbook are going 33/1. That is insane.
 
I had a wee problem with the Magnet Cup at the time because of how it appeared to pan out.

Some time later I looked into the sectionals and they suggested the pace was nothing great, backed up by a lot of the placed horses and those behind them finishing faster than the principals.

There's no doubt the form of the race is working out, though.

Anmaat has now hacked up at G3 level.

Runner-up Achelois hacked up next time.

The fourth, Spirit Dancer, won next time up from the 10th, What's The Story, which won next time up.

The fifth, Brilliant Light, was second next time up to the 14th, Forest Falcon in one of the big Goodwood hcaps, with the sixth, Just Fine, and eighth, Caradoc, in behind.

The 11th, Certain Lad, was fifth to Anmaat the other day.

In the words of Credence Clearwater Revival, hotter than a match-head.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nothing original in this selection but I can't help thinking we saw the 2000 Guineas winner the other day.

It was clear by halfway that Bradsell wasn't running its race so let's leave him out of calcs and concentrate on the other horses.

5th - Apache Outlaw: this is not the first time Kevin Blake has been very positive about this horse going into a race. He's Joseph's racing manager and told everyone on the early programme on Saturday that this one would run a big race and outrun his odds. Now, It wouldn't be hard to outrun odds of 80/1 but let's say he did run to his OR of 100. The winner has given him a 14 length (ie 42lbs) beating. So, best case scenario: LBB is a 142+ horse.

4th - Bradsell: will he even ever race again?

3rd - Shartash: OR 106 on the back of a short-head defeat by Blackbeard, which a number of pundits were putting up for this race before its withdrawal. LBB has beaten him 7.5 lengths, or 22/23lbs, bringing LBB out on 128/129.

2nd - Persian Force: career RPRs, earliest first, of 99, 101, 106 and 110 pointed to a progressive but perhaps not brilliant juvenile. Would it be unreasonable to expect him to have run to at least 110 here? LBB has beaten him 7 lengths, or 21lbs, so LBB comes out on 131+.

Now, cards on the table, I have never entirely subscribed to the accepted poundage for race distances for juveniles being the same as for mature horses. It's a bit like putting your two fingers on a touch-screen and reducing the entire page. I just don't know by how much. But let's say 5%? (What does an average 2yo weigh compared with a mature horse?)

By this reckoning, Little Big Bear is a 135-125 juvenile, the latter being entirely conservative.

In effect, he could stand still between now and May and still win an average 2000 Guineas. Easily.

Although he's by No Nay Never, his dosage figures are entirely inconclusive and don't rule out effectiveness at a mile but it looked to me like the horse was still going strongly under Moore some way after the line the other day. Not that Moore was at any pains to stop him; I'd proffer the notion that Moore was feeling the horse out for further by not asking him to slow down too much. The other runners had stopped long before he did.

It's early days but I think 9/2 is one helluva price even this far out. Sure, lots of water has to run under a slalom of bridges between now and the end of the season, let alone May, but I'm now pretty heavily involved at that price despite already having Naval Power onside at 12/1.

Exciting times ahead either way.
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Simon Rowlands's sectional take on the race:

Sectional Spotlight | At The Races

His assertion about the official distances would obviously impact upon the ratings I posted above and bring mine closer to alignment with his.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the words of Credence Clearwater Revival, hotter than a match-head.
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Surprised no one has corrected me on this.

It was, of course, The Lovin' Spoonful who had the big hit with Summer In The City.

Summer in the City - YouTube

(It's also the music for the opening sequence to Die Hard 3.)

I got mixed up with CCR because the music group I belong to have been practising Have You Ever Seen The Rain as well.

Creedence Clearwater Revival: Have You Ever Seen The Rain? - YouTube



Incredible to think this is stuff from the '60s - so much better than the synthesised crap going around these days.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Surprised no one has corrected me on this.

It was, of course, The Lovin' Spoonful who had the big hit with Summer In The City.

Summer in the City - YouTube

(It's also the music for the opening sequence to Die Hard 3.)

I got mixed up with CCR because the music group I belong to have been practising Have You Ever Seen The Rain as well.

Creedence Clearwater Revival: Have You Ever Seen The Rain? - YouTube



Incredible to think this is stuff from the '60s - so much better than the synthesised crap going around these days.
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I must admit I didnt know what hotter than a match head came from.
But , I didnt discover CCR until later in life and is my favourite band/group.

And I like that track,have you ever seen the rain in york.
 
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