Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Not a big fan of these type of races but I looked at it in (relative) depth earlier and hate to say I drew a line through Korker before anything as Beverly is as biased a track as they come and while his draw isn’t too bad, his habitual slow starts is.

As Euro said, he could easily meet plenty of trouble and I couldn’t believe Existent was twice the price of last year’s (comfortable) winner Tis Marvellous, so availed of 17/2
 
Desert Orchid said:
He's operating at 31% for the season. That strikes me as pretty impressive for a big stable. AP O'Brien 12%, Gosdens 21%.
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You know as well as anybody DO that strike rates only matter relative to SPs, unless you’re one of his winning owners.

His horses are regularly overbet, especially his 2yos. Probably more than Gosden, O’Brien & Stoute these days. I imagine Haggas still trumps him though.

Edit : A very cursory glance through the RP form for him last 2 week shows of his 10 winners, only 2 were odds against - and no bigger than 3/1, of the others, many were long odds on
 
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wilsonl said:
You know as well as anybody DO that strike rates only matter relative to SPs, unless you’re one of his winning owners.

His horses are regularly overbet, especially his 2yos. Probably more than Gosden, O’Brien & Stoute these days. I imagine Haggas still trumps him though.

Edit : A very cursory glance through the RP form for him last 2 week shows of his 10 winners, only 2 were odds against - and no bigger than 3/1, of the others, many were long odds on
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Appelby over the last 12 months are 31.4% strike rate, but most significantly 0.96 A/E which suggests that the market has it spot on and he's horses are in no way overbet, in fact if you blindly backed every single Appelby runner over the last 12 months you would have only lost £8.

One of my regular systems is Appelby/Buick/evens to 5/1. Backing these blindly over the last 12 months has a strike rate of 34%, A/E of 1.07, ROI of 17.3% and a level stakes profit of 26.64 pts to SP

Thank me later!
 
Imo, Korker's a flat track bully;his record on stiffer tracks is none too good. Probably significant that his regular pilot elects to go elsewhere, too.
 
I get the negatives (in Cliff's shoes I would sooner ride Karl's Prestige filly at Goodwood as well) although I would suggest he ran a stormer at the Royal meeting given the ground he lost at the start. I think he's a group horse and this isn't a strong field.
 
Saturday looks busy:

Thundering is entered up at Haydock and Ascot but he only has a jockey booked for the latter. I think that's where he'll go as the Haydock race is over 14f and Soulcombe (also doubly entered) could be in opposition. He was most taking at York.

Morgan Fairy has been beaten on her last two runs but both races were small field events and she might have run into a group horse the last day at Lingfield. She's in the London Series Final at Kempton which will attract a decent field numbers wise.

Golden Voice is in a tough looking 7f handicap at Ascot and he'll have a nice racing weight with a claimer booked and a stiff 7 looks to be optimum for him.

I backed Rohaan at a big price for the Maurice De Gheest and although Highfield Princess won well Rohaan had a bad draw and a bad trip and imo was the best horse in the race. I took 16s for Haydock afterwards and he has his chance in a race that doesn't look as tough as it did before the 5 day entries.
 
My gut says with a horse like Rohaan not to back him again until next year's Wokingham and hope he can get in off 109 again. A wee bit like other big handicap winners, it could be the unique nature of that kind of race that suits him best and he might not show that level of form again, for that reason or perhaps by design, until he gets the same scenario.
 
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He is, unfortunately the rides he's getting (Ryan in the Wokingham excepted) have not been the best and sad to say Hollie is booked for Saturday. That tempers my confidence - she went too soon in the Hackwood.
 
Mishriff is pencillled in for the Irish Champion, and looks worth a punt @ 5/1. Has to reverse form with Vadeni from the Eclipse, but that was a poor ride from David Egan, and his Juddmonte 2nd to Baaeed was the performance of his life, imo.
James Doyle likely to resume that partnership, and promises to be a race to savour.
 
reet hard said:
Mishriff is pencillled in for the Irish Champion, and looks worth a punt @ 5/1. Has to reverse form with Vadeni from the Eclipse, but that was a poor ride from David Egan, and his Juddmonte 2nd to Baaeed was the performance of his life, imo.
James Doyle likely to resume that partnership, and promises to be a race to savour.
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I normally find myself on the same wavelength as you but Mishriff?Perfomance of a lifetime?

I thought Mishriff ran like a stuffed pig aganst Baaeed and barely got home infront of trees.

In the Eclipse, Soumillon , concerned about the ground just did what he had to to win.

If he goes Irish with some cut in the ground I reckon Vadeni could be the bet of the year
 
You're entitled to your opinion Fist, no matter how wrong it may be. :D
Baaeed ran a t/s figure of 124 that day (a rare bird in flat racing) and he made the rest of the fieldl look pedestrian.
Despite JG's diplomacy after the Eclipse, David Egan lost the Mishriff retainer, else Vadeni would have been murdered.
 
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I honestly think racegoers love to think they have found a new champion

Sometimes they have sometimes they have not.

Either way the media are there, including Timeform, to promote racing anyway they can.

So they are not going to say Mishriff ran amile below his best to a 119
and all Baaeed had to do was run to his 128 and he'd look like the greatest thing since sliced bread,

That doe not sell racing so they go the other way..Mishriff ran to a 123 so Baaeed ran to 135 which no way can they justify.

But who cares racing politics are working well...........now all the mugs out there are talking as good as Frankel and business is booming.

Dubai Honour is 6//4 fav to win a poor group 3 tomorrow which he should win by 10 lengths having run Mishriff to 2 1/2 lengths at York.

Be interesting to see of he does.
 
Baaeed was rated just one pip behind Frankel for their respective Juddmonte runs, which makes him a superstar, however much you don't recognise it.
PS Dubai Honour was well flattered by being out the back, off a strong pace. However he runs tomorrow, he's not within hailing distance of Mishriff.
 
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Tanlic said:
Dubai Honour is 6//4 fav to win a poor group 3 tomorrow which he should win by 10 lengths having run Mishriff to 2 1/2 lengths at York.
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Completely against this one tomorrow. Beaten by Sir Busker the last two times he's run and he's 6/4 for a 12f race. Fck that.
 
Agree with Euro; strong pace predicted and he's no 12f horse. Seems he's only running on the AW because there's no soft ground around and he's prepping here for when the going turns in his favour.
 
reet hard said:
Baaeed was rated just one pip behind Frankel for their respective Juddmonte runs, which makes him a superstar, however much you don't recognise it.
PS Dubai Honour was well flattered by being out the back, off a strong pace. However he runs tomorrow, he's not within hailing distance of Mishriff.
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The horse ran to within an inch of his form with Sir Busker so what are you saying? They were both flattered? or could it be Mishriff ran like a stuffed pig and Baaeed is the one that was flattered

That of course donesnt sit well with Baaeed fans.

My take Frankel would have laughed at Baaeed who wouldn't get within 6 lengths of the great horse at any trip

Not one horse that has finished 2nd to Baaeed has franked the form......NOT ONE!!!!!

Juust of the top of my head Fahrr won the Lochinge and the Champion stakes after being pulverised by Frankel.
 
The winner beat Dubai Honour exactly the same distance as Mishriff but was conceding 3lbs,

As I said he ran like a stuffed pig behind Baaeed and that goes a long way to proving it
 
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