Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Tanlic said:
The winner beat Dubai Honour exactly the same distance as Mishriff but was conceding 3lbs,

As I said he ran like a stuffed pig behind Baaeed and that goes a long way to proving it
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Dream on, Bucko.The steady pace helped him, and TM held him out the back, what you'd expect with DH's doubtful stamina - did well to nab 2nd, but would have no chance of troubling Baaeed or Mishriff in any well run GP1;ever.
 
That was a terrible ride from Tom. I do think Mostahdaf is classy (6/1 sp couldn't believe) but it would have been a lot closer if the fav had been closer up.
 
reet hard said:
Dream on, Bucko.The steady pace helped him, and TM held him out the back, what you'd expect with DH's doubtful stamina - did well to nab 2nd, but would have no chance of troubling Baaeed or Mishriff in any well run GP1;ever.
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You know the media are full of crap. They even begged the question is Mishriff the best horse in the world a while back. What a joke that has turned out to be.

He's won nothing worth talking about bar a poor renewal of the Juddmonte and has truned into a professional loser.

I really hope he turns up to take on Vadeni who is no world beater but he'll kick him right into touch IMO.
 
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William Haggas has found a race for Doom on Friday
This will soon tell if the rumours are true that pigeons can't catch her.
Maybe the pigeons are slow who knows:lol:
All being well she will take in the Rockfel later in the month

I've had another speculative bet on her for the 1000 Guineas @66/1 again
 
The Park Hill has an interesting market. Eshaada and Princess Zoe head it and I'm not convinced with either - the former emptied quickly in the Lancs Oaks and this is a step up in trip and the latter is surely too boaty. The bet I think is Yesyes who was third in this last year and ran really well after a long time off in the Lillie Langtry. Her stable companion Haskoy has been supplemented for the Leger and Yesyes is 6/1 at 365 - that's too big.

Other thoughts are First Folio is interesting over 7 on Friday, I really liked Silver Knott in the Solario and the only thing that stopped me backing him for the 2000 was Godolphin just have too many candidates and he could be a French Guineas horse. Amazed Karl Burke, who I rate, hasn't got Korker in the Portland - the race was made for him. The Leger looks terrible and I like Onesto in Ireland.
 
Ed Walker now saying he might send Great Ambassador to Ascot for the Bengough.

Could it be he fancies Popmaster more for Ayr?
 
Ed Walkder is just not to be trusted. Fcking Dreamloper wins a Group 1 after a heinous performance in the Nassau. He's a squiggle merchant.
 
Couple of really nice races at Newbury on Saturday. You have a Group 3 sprint with Manaccan and Tis Marvellous heading the market and they are begging to be taken on, problem is with whom. I had no idea Royal Aclaim ran in France yesterday and wouldn't be looking at her - my initial thought is Mitbaahy.

The 10f handicap looks very hard with a couple of Godolphin's at the top of the betting and the likes of Lysander and Hamaki also involved.

Elsewhere some of the supporting races on Arc weekend are priced up and there's a few horses interesting me. In the Cadran you have in market order - Kyprios, Trueshan, Quickthorn, Coltrane, Strad', Tashkhan. I kind of like the last named given the likely ground and how much this will cut up.

In the Foret Noble Truth looks big at 10s. He's not run since the Jersey - I wonder if they've basically just waited for the 7f Group 1 to unleash him.

La Parisienne was poorly ridden by Mosse yesterday in the Vermeille and she's 9/1 for the l'Opera - that's too big given the distance she was beat in the Diane (Nashwa is 7/2 for this).
 
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Euronymous said:
Elsewhere some of the supporting races on Arc weekend are priced up and there's a few horses interesting me. In the Cadran you have in market order - Kyprios, Trueshan, Quickthorn, Coltrane, Strad', Tashkhan. I kind of like the last named given the likely ground and how much this will cut up.

La Parisienne was poorly ridden by Mosse yesterday in the Vermeille and she's 9/1 for the l'Opera - that's too big given the distance she was beat in the Diane (Nashwa is 7/2 for this).
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I entirely agree with this. I'm on Quickthorn at 5's and Takshan at 12's for exactly your reasoning. I also have them both in doubles with Nashwa at 7/2.

I also agree with La Parisienne.
 
Euro I'm told that La Parisienne is more likely to go to the Arc. I've just taken 33/1 which is much too big for a 3yo filly that looks up to scratch in a race market that looks likely to cut up.
 
The Cambridgeshire is on Saturday and I liked the way Atrium won the last day. I reckon he will relish stepping up in trip and he has a turn of foot. Protagonist looks interesting aswell but as I mentioned Atrium early on and he won nicely last time I will stick with him.

The Irish Cesarewitch is the next day in Ireland. I looked last night and like the look of the Willie Mullins recruit Lot Of Joy.

This horse ran a good fourth on her first start for Willie Mullins, had good form abroad before that, so can hopefully go on again and improve. Lot Of Joy also has an entry in our Cesarewitch.

I don't know what the plan is with this horse but there must be a chance Willie will run Lot Of Joy in both races? Any of our Irish correspondents have any ideas?

Basically I am considering doing two patents, Atrium in the Cambrideshire, Lot of Joy, (English and Irish Cesarewitch), with Luxembourg in the Arc De Triumph as my final selection.

Hopefully this will give me some interest for next weekend.

I may wait until Tuesday or Wednesday just to see the entries. Or even final decs stage for those races next weekend.
 
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I've done a little ew trixie.i dont know if they intend running the first 2 but I can only hope

BRILLIANT LIGHT 40/1 Cambridgeshire
FRANKENSTELLA 25/1 irish cesarewitch
AL HAKEEM 33/1 Arc

Bet 365 havent priced up the Kerry national or I would have added HEWICK
Other bookies have but the prices on the other 3 differs dramatically.
 
I think I'll leave an impossible looking Cambridgeshire alone (aside from a small bet on Jimi Hendrix) and tackle the Joel Stakes on Friday instead. Mutasaabeq has gotten himself a bad reputation but he's 9/2 for this and that's just a bit too big. I think we can give him a pass for Goodwood as he's run poorly in the Celebration Mile twice now so he seems not to act there. He has a victory over c&d.
 
Some very good younger horses entered in the Royal Lodge on Saturday. I'm not sure why the race isn't priced up on oddschecker.

I may forgive my namesake Marbaan his last effort. I need to see what turns up though.
 
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Were the 5-day decs for the Cambs delayed until tomorrow because of the funeral? The race conditions say today but I thought I'd read it had been put back 24 hours.

I'm holding back on backing one in particular until I see it in the 5-day decs.
 
Outsider said:
I've done a little ew trixie.i dont know if they intend running the first 2 but I can only hope

BRILLIANT LIGHT 40/1 Cambridgeshire
FRANKENSTELLA 25/1 irish cesarewitch
AL HAKEEM 33/1 Arc

Bet 365 havent priced up the Kerry national or I would have added HEWICK
Other bookies have but the prices on the other 3 differs dramatically.
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I'm with you on Brilliant Light at 40/1 and will add on the day if the rain doesn't get in the ground. BL's form indicates that 9f might be the ideal distance.
 
I know I should wait until tomorrow but if these 2 run they wont end up at these prices imo.

TACARIB BAY 50/1
ARQOOB 66/1

Tacarib bay stayed on over a mile at goodwood.
Arqoob has run a couple of good races and finished in front of Brilliant light last time.
 
5 day decs are up at the RP site:

3:40 Newmarket | Standard Racecard | 24 September 2022 | Racing Post

Looks like a rating of 85 (90 for 3yos) is going to be safe for the cut. That's a wee bit unusual and makes the race much more like it was back in the day when the weights went from 10-0 to 7-7. Currently there's a 27lbs weight range from entry #1 to #35 and if the top weight stands its ground something will be out of the handicap at the bottom with the lowest weight set at 8-2.

I honestly didn't believe my long-term ante-post bet Caradoc would make the cut but he's in with plenty to spare.

It would be gutting for connections if anything that picked up a penalty in order to get in safely ended up losing by a narrow margin.

Off to get stuck into the card now...
 
Marb said:
The Cambridgeshire is on Saturday and I liked the way Atrium won the last day. I reckon he will relish stepping up in trip and he has a turn of foot. Protagonist looks interesting aswell but as I mentioned Atrium early on and he won nicely last time I will stick with him.

The Irish Cesarewitch is the next day in Ireland. I looked last night and like the look of the Willie Mullins recruit Lot Of Joy.

This horse ran a good fourth on her first start for Willie Mullins, had good form abroad before that, so can hopefully go on again and improve. Lot Of Joy also has an entry in our Cesarewitch.

I don't know what the plan is with this horse but there must be a chance Willie will run Lot Of Joy in both races? Any of our Irish correspondents have any ideas?

Basically I am considering doing two patents, Atrium in the Cambrideshire, Lot of Joy, (English and Irish Cesarewitch), with Luxembourg in the Arc De Triumph as my final selection.

Hopefully this will give me some interest for next weekend.

I may wait until Tuesday or Wednesday just to see the entries. Or even final decs stage for those races next weekend.
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I just lost a post in cyber space but anyway.

I will try and clear some thoughts.

Hills are going a standout 33s on Lot Of Joy for the Irish Cesarewitch and 20s on her stablemate Echoes Of Rain and I have no idea if this is a rick or they know they won't run. Thats double the price of anyone else. Any help appreciated.

Atrium is still in the Cambridgeshire but also now entered for a race at Haydock on Saturday. I don't know if he will go where there is cut in the ground? Maybe it could be toss of a coin who knows.

Another one has caught my eye for the Cambridgeshire is called Postwick who won impressively last time and I fancied him that day.

He could run with a very low weight on Saturday. He is currently 43 on the list. He has also been declared for a race on Thursday where he is 6/4 to win. Were he to win that race on Thursday would he incur a penalty whereby his position in the handicap from 43 would go up? Any help appreciated. I know he would get a penalty but would that penalty increase his chance of making the cut? That's the bit I am not sure about.

Will they try and win on Thursday then run on Saturday? Again I don't know. Interesting though nevertheless.

So there you go.

I've cleared my thoughts.
 
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Outsider said:
I know I should wait until tomorrow but if these 2 run they wont end up at these prices imo.

TACARIB BAY 50/1
ARQOOB 66/1

Tacarib bay stayed on over a mile at goodwood.
Arqoob has run a couple of good races and finished in front of Brilliant light last time.
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Joined you with Arqoob. Too high up my table to be that price.
 
Marb said:
I just lost a post in cyber space but anyway.

I will try and clear some thoughts.

Hills are going a standout 33s on Lot Of Joy for the Irish Cesarewitch and 20s on her stablemate Echoes Of Rain and I have no idea if this is a rick or they know they won't run. Thats double the price of anyone else. Any help appreciated.

Atrium is still in the Cambridgeshire but also now entered for a race at Haydock on Saturday. I don't know if he will go where there is cut in the ground? Maybe it could be toss of a coin who knows.

Another one has caught my eye for the Cambridgeshire is called Postwick who won impressively last time and I fancied him that day.

He could run with a very low weight on Saturday. He is currently 43 on the list. He has also been declared for a race on Thursday where he is 6/4 to win. Were he to win that race on Thursday would he incur a penalty whereby his position in the handicap from 43 would go up? Any help appreciated. I know he would get a penalty but would that penalty increase his chance of making the cut? That's the bit I am not sure about.

Will they try and win on Thursday then run on Saturday? Again I don't know. Interesting though nevertheless.

So there you go.

I've cleared my thoughts.
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Lot Of Joy runs on Sunday and won't be going to Newmarket.
 
So the decs for Saturday are here. Atrium not declared for Newmarket or Haydock. I would have got stung if I'd backed him but I've held off on my original plan.

I'm coming round to the idea of backing Dual Identity as he was finishing fast the last day against the well touted Protagonist.

I'll also have to have a saver on Brilliant Light as Outsider has been banging on about this horse.

I'm thinking I could feasibly back Lot Of Joy each way for this Sunday and also back Waterville for the English Cesarewitch in the same multiple bet.

I'd be kind of hoping they both run well on Sunday and Waterville then heads to Newmarket afterwards at likely shorter odds than what he is now.

Clearly as you can tell I am one hell of a guesser.

I will post up my multiple once after I place my bet.
 
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I'm gonna add Electrical Storm to my Jimi H bet. He was fairly horrible last time but stayed on really well over an inadequate mile.
 
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