Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

I haven't parted with a penny in terms of anti post betting for the Cheltenham Festival yet.

I have mentioned the strength of the Greatwood form from 2021. No Ordinary Joe franked that nicely a few days ago. He is a horse I am interested in especially for a race like the Betfair Hurdle which I believe is in early February.

I'm convinced he will come on a lot for that run where he was giving a whopping 18lbs to the second horse.

Re-the Greatwood 2021 and the horse who won that. I mentioned West Cork as an interesting one if they can give him a decent break, freshen him up and get him back to his old hurdles form.

If my thinking works out it could be 6 weeks or thereabouts before he might run over hurdles again, so I'm in no rush to back him for the county hurdle, though that's my long term thinking at the minute...the entries for handicaps will likely be made in mid February from memory so that's the time when I'd want to see his entries and consider a bet on him after that. Even his fourth behind State Man in last seasons County Hurdle looks rock solid...

Ain't That A Shame went close in the big handicap chase a few days ago in Leopardstown. He is lightly raced enough to find some more improvement in time for the festival, where a race like the Ultima looks most likely. He's on my radar too. Rachael Blackmore said he was hanging in closing stages...so I wonder could he improve with some new headgear in future races?
 
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Marb said:
Ain't That A Shame went close in the big handicap chase a few days ago in Leopardstown. He is lightly raced enough to find some more improvement in time for the festival, where a race like the Ultima looks most likely. He's on my radar too. Rachael Blackmore said he was hanging in closing stages...so I wonder could he improve with some new headgear in future races?
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The Irish are usually a non-factor in the Ultima, would prefer the Kim Muir for him. Farceur du Large is also on my radar for that race (or the Thyestes).
 
That's interesting.

Ain't That A Shame ran down the field in the Kim Muir last season, but I don't think that was his true running.

Yes he could end up in either race. I have bad memories last season of backing a horse called School Boy Hours for the Ultima anti post after he ran well in the same race De Bromheads horse did on Tuesday. School Boy Hours ended up in the Kim Muir and ran no race.

I will have a look at that horse you mentioned.
 
I like that Aint that a Shame and Farceur du Large are having races in competitive events. I backed Frontal Assault in the Kim Muir last season and I think his lack of experience in big fields cost him, as it did Aint....

Farceur du Large was most eye-catching in the Paddy Power. He was wide throughout, missed the second last and was forced to go widest of all around the home term. He did really well to finish as close as he did.
 
Yes Ain't That A Shame snuck round well travelling like a threat throughout then was delivered by Blackmore only to get headed by horses no doubt tuned to minute for that race, only to stay on again at the death for fourth after reportedly hanging. Get some headgear on him for Cheltenham maybe...

At least he won't go up as much in the handicap and another big pot could therefore await. The Big Dog franked his previous form nicely in the Welsh National.
 
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He was lumping round a huge weight though, just outstayed in the end. Solid enough run.
 
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Maries Rock another one who ran in that Greatwood 2021. Came 7th that day.

I just hope they can get West Cork back.
 
Marb said:
A horse I had my eye on last season called Eclair D'ainay could run in the last at Newbury on Saturday. He has form with good yardsticks including Frero Banbou from last season.

Don't get me wrong he needs to improve a bit if he is to win a few races this season but that's quite possible. I thought they might give him the old wind operation during the summer but looks like they haven't. See how he gets on this Saturday if they run him.

There were conflicting views on him last season on here as DO was saying he had a good race in him while others like Euro didn't rate the form with Frero Banbou, who went on to run well in the Grand Annual. Eclair D'ainay also finished second on his last start with recent Aintree scorer Al Dancer back in third.

As I say, lets see if this horse can find any improvement this season.
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Frero Banbou might be backable Saturday at Sandown. Looks like it will be deep ground which suits and Grey Diamond is a short priced fav for some reason (I think he's a bit of a pansy.)

FB is now on a lower mark than he was for the Grand Annual so 13/2 seems generous.
 
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I really like the look of Venetia's horse in the 2.05 at Wincanton on Saturday, Desque De L'isle. A lightly raced 10 year old with a 33 percent win strike over fences, (5/15), and could run at Wincanton on a hat trick after two wins at Ludlow this season. I can't see anything to be scared of and I make this the good thing for Saturday if he is declared. I don't think the handicapper has him at all yet off a mark of 119. I can't see any odds for the race as yet. Anything over 2/1 worth having.
 
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Euronymous said:
Frero Banbou might be backable Saturday at Sandown. Looks like it will be deep ground which suits and Grey Diamond is a short priced fav for some reason (I think he's a bit of a pansy.)

FB is now on a lower mark than he was for the Grand Annual so 13/2 seems generous.
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I’m also keen on Frero Banbou for this. Likely to be better suited by the ground & slightly shorter trip than his two runs this season at Ascot


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
My problem with horse racing is my brain over thinking.
Frere banbou finished 3rd in the grand annual beaten 6L so if that is the aim again then surely they wont want it to win.
Saturday is worth £15000
Grand annual 70,000

I'm more interested in the 2 Venetia horses in the veterans chase worth 50,000
Both pulled up in a veterans chase last time but that was only 13000.
 
I'm likewise guilty in terms of (over)thinking but I think it's a kind of healthy cynicism.

I think some Cheltenham winners come back and run well at the festival time and again because they've not been asked to win in the meantime.

The brother yesterday mentioned two horses he thought were being trained for festival handicaps but right now I'm fuct if I remember the names.
 
There’s quite a lot of after-timing from trainers of the “we had always had this race in mind for him” type, but some are upfront and make it no secret - Nicholls had kept on about Bravemansgame being laid out for the KG as had Henderson with Marie’s Rock in the Relkeel, for example. So need to know the trainers who you can rely on (a bit!!) here.

Similarly, a lot of them are creatures of habit and give their horses similar preps which helps divine what they might have in mind. Got to know those as well - don’t ask I haven’t got a list :)

Otherwise, you would really question if they know what they are doing when you read their pre-race comments where they are mostly making very optimistic noises about their chances. On the one hand, I suppose their owners wouldn’t be too pleased if they announced that they didn’t think they had much chance. On the other, it does seem odd how often their horses’ performance seems to come as a complete surprise to them (or so they say). Maybe races all too often lend more to rolling of the dice than straight ability.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm likewise guilty in terms of (over)thinking but I think it's a kind of healthy cynicism.

I think some Cheltenham winners come back and run well at the festival time and again because they've not been asked to win in the meantime.
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Totally agree. They also get what they need, something that's not afforded to them anywhere else; an end-to-end gallop...

Willie Wumpkins, Sire Du Berlais, Un Temps Pour Tout, Hollywell, Wichita Lineman, Clyde Court, Cause Of causes, Half Free...
 
I fancied MERLINS GIANT for the county hurdle after his impressive win last time but it seems like the hcapper was impressed as well and put it up 13lb to 140 and with the bha adding their bit it could become 145 which makes it a lot harder.
 
I think me and DO were chatting about Kauto Riko a few weeks back before racing was abandoned.

Entered in the Veterans Chase at Sandown on Saturday. Dropped 3lbs to 134..maybe an each way chance...see what's declared tomorrow.
 
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Marb said:
Yes Ain't That A Shame snuck round well travelling like a threat throughout then was delivered by Blackmore only to get headed by horses no doubt tuned to minute for that race, only to stay on again at the death for fourth after reportedly hanging. Get some headgear on him for Cheltenham maybe...

At least he won't go up as much in the handicap and another big pot could therefore await. The Big Dog franked his previous form nicely in the Welsh National.
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Ain't That A Shame given a mention by David Johnson on the Sporting Life today for the Grand National.

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/ante-post-tips-five-horses-on-our-radar-this-spring/206400
 
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