Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.
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barjon
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Aye, I think Passenger would win a re-run of today’s race even if given the same considerate treatment. Didn’t get an easy passage.
Richard Kingscote reported that PASSENGER (USA), which dead-heated for third place, was repeatedly denied clear running from approaching 2 furlongs out until passing the 1 furlong marker.
Beef or Salmon
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Switch the jockeys and you get a different result and I don't say that or believe it too often. Oisin Murphy on a different level.
As per the horses to follow thread and my post on Insinuendo, I had £20 E/W on her earlier at 25/1 ante post for the Coronation Cup, just in case connections bring her over as opposed to running her in the Tattersalls Gold Cup a few days earlier at the Curragh. The Coronation Cup could and should cut up and I figured if she ran the 25's would be very decent, so had to have a wee stab in the dark.
See how I go.
See how I go.
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chaumi
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I fancied Encourageable to go well in the Lincoln and pretty certain the stable did, too. Think the ground found him out.
Not seen since. Maybe he needed the break - it would have been a tough race, wasn't there to make up the numbers and seemed to fight hard enough till it was obvious he couldn't go through with it. Possibly centre track on the outside of the field wasn't really the place to be either.
33-1 B3 for the Hunt Cup. Entered up at York and Chester Saturday. If he hacks up, the 33s could disappear. If he goes well enough without winning, this Saturday could just be a readier.
James Horton has not been running anything for the last 2 months or so, but has plenty entered up now. Which implies either he was keeping the string for the better summer races, or maybe the horses were under the weather. This Saturday should be an indicator.
Not seen since. Maybe he needed the break - it would have been a tough race, wasn't there to make up the numbers and seemed to fight hard enough till it was obvious he couldn't go through with it. Possibly centre track on the outside of the field wasn't really the place to be either.
33-1 B3 for the Hunt Cup. Entered up at York and Chester Saturday. If he hacks up, the 33s could disappear. If he goes well enough without winning, this Saturday could just be a readier.
James Horton has not been running anything for the last 2 months or so, but has plenty entered up now. Which implies either he was keeping the string for the better summer races, or maybe the horses were under the weather. This Saturday should be an indicator.
Desert Orchid
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This is the snag about races at this time of year. What is the real target? If it's the Hunt Cup, why ruin its chance by going up 5lbs (unless it needs to go up to get in)?
She's still in the Tattersalls Gold Cup so I await for final declarations for the Curragh. It feels to me she will be declared for the Curragh but I'll wait and see.
This from Charlie Johnston's stable tour today about Outbreak via the Sporting Life.
"He’s had a good start to the season and won really impressively at Newmarket during the Guineas meeting. It’s difficult to say a horse benefitted from having no stalls but he did seem to enjoy the flag start, he settled a lot better than he had done previously at the Craven meeting. The race didn’t really pan out for him at Newbury on Saturday, he needs a strong pace and a couple to aim at. He won’t run again now until the Hunt Cup, we’ll work back from that with him."
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Beef or Salmon
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Outbreak is 40s with 5 places with PaddyPower
Desert Orchid
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In other words, he was already working back from the Hunt Cup when he ran the other day, which was about preserving his mark of 97 which will just about get him into the race. He needs at least six to come out (plus maybe one or two Irish entries depending on their UK marks) so will probably get in but he wouldn't have made it off his pre-Newmarket rating, where he went along close to the strong pace and kept on strongly, showing a lot of improvement. The other day he doddled along at the head of the nearside group but wasn't asked any serious questions. The run was about getting a duck egg next to his name rather than a 1.
None of that is any guarantee that he wins the Hunt Cup but he will almost certainly be competitive on the day.
Desert Orchid
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Northumberland Plate - Zinc White 25/1, 4 places, Unibet - lightly raced, same owner and trainer as Law Of The Sea which runs on Saturday after being unlucky for us at Chester, steep-curve profile.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
It's pretty rare I bet a horse in a handicap that isn't on my tracker alerts these days so I don't spend a lot of time studying those races but I do make exceptions for the Royal Meeting and also for Epsom as the course is such a good track for the higher weighted horses. A couple interest me this weekend - on Friday Savvy Victory is entered in the mile and a quarter handicap and even though he's off 106 I like his chances. I think he's a borderline group horse who had good form with Ottoman Fleet last season and this year he ran well behind pretty much a course specialist at Chester and his Magnolia effort was better than the bare result, he met trouble in running and looked like he'd finish upsides the second with a clear passage, that second went on to run Free Wind close in the Middleton so it's very solid form. The other possible bet is Clarendon House in the Dash. This horse was on my tracker last season when he ran Raasel close at Goodwood and imo should have come here after but instead he ran in the Saint-Georges at Longchamp and the Achilles at Haydock so I removed him from my alerts. He ran ok in Korker's race at the Dante Meeting and has been dropped to 100 which makes him well handicapped. His good runs at Goodwood suggest a fast five is ideal and the only negative is the price, I was sort of hoping for 10s.
I see Dark Pine who ran so well and returned to form when just touched off at Chester is entered in the handicap at 4.30 on Saturday. He's a horse I'd be willing to back stepping up in trip. One obvious danger would be Scampi, who I kicked myself for not backing last time at York after I fancied him for Epsom the time before. In hindsight the Epsom race was on soft ground so that might have explained the run. I'll keep a check on final decs and see whats what.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Interesting looking market for the John Of Gaunt at Haydock on Saturday. Interesting because the front two priced, Aldaary and Angel Beau, are horses who either need soft ground and will be pulled if it's not deep(ish) or just underperform on lively ground. I was eyeing up El Cabello for this but in looking through his form I see an excuse for a bad run lto due to heavy ground, and an excuse for a bad run in the Commonwealth due to fast ground. I like Karl Burke though so might chance him. It might just be extremes he doesn't handle and Kirkland will not let it get that fast. There is a possibility of rain on Saturday as well.
chaumi
Rookie
Based on that - and if the ground does stay fast - it could end up a 4 or 5 runner race. Which may well suit The Wizard of Eye, who looks attractive enough at 8-1 and doesn't seem to have any other near-term engagements.
Edit - couple of other considerations:
Stan Moore reports the Wizard has grown into a more powerful horse than when narrowly beaten in a Goodwood mile G3 on GF last July, fighting hard for the win up the inside rail. If you watch the Lockinge, he was bouncing along till a gap closed a couple of furlongs out, seemed to switch left slightly for another try, that one closed, too. Hard to say either were extreme, but equally possible he'd have got a fair bit closer with a fully unbroken run.
Seems a rolling horse and if he can get a clean run - possibly from the front like the Listed race at Kempton - this looks his best chance so far of picking up a Group win. There's a risk he'll be outspeeded, I guess, but should hit the line hard enough and has shown the willingness to fight for it a few times.
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Quite like the look of Sea Sik Road in the Pinnacle.
Close 2nd in the Ribblesdale (behind subsequent Irish Oaks winner) on fast grond a couple of years ago;with not much rain foecast and Tom Marquand already booked,she looks set to play a major role.
Close 2nd in the Ribblesdale (behind subsequent Irish Oaks winner) on fast grond a couple of years ago;with not much rain foecast and Tom Marquand already booked,she looks set to play a major role.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
It was last year reet, that race is burned into my brain - she had it won and drifted left (a bit like Grand Alliance in the King Edward) weird. I'm off fillies races as they killed me last year but I can follow you in with a SSR/Desert Crown (PoW) double. I took 6s about the latter after the Sandown return and he's attracted support today. I think he's nailed on.
Dark Pine could be declared in the 2.25 at Haydock on Saturday in a few hours. It's a class two but based on his return to form at Chester I think he can handle the step up in class and distance.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
It was a bit murky immediately post Brig Gerard - in that do they go PoW/King George or Eclipse/KG. I took a bit of a chance at 6s but the hype on social media re this bit of work that Dessie is asking about on a a new thread seems to point in the direction of the Royal Meeting. I'll be trying to get doubles into him the next week or so with various half fancies like SSR and some ex tracker horses - Zainalarab and Groundbreaker at Yarmouth and Chelmsford respectively this evening (I stumbled into the latter's entry in that race, was eyeing him up for the La Yakel handicap at Haydock on Saturday.) Some entered up on Sunday etc.
chaumi
Rookie
Down to 6 runners and still time to lose another 1 or 2. But the 8s on the Wizard has gone.
This sprint listed race at Haydock at 1.15 on Saturday actually looks interesting to me. I'm not sure about the horses at the top of the betting, will need to have another look at them. Raasel seems to have lost his best form. I was reading an early preview/verdict on the Sporting Life website which said he was on the wrong side of the track last time. He certainly was...but he was well beaten off, even if he'd had a furlong head start on the right side he would have still been beaten. I don't know, maybe he will turn it around, but not for me anyway. The one I like is Fine Wine. He ran really well last time for his first start this season, hanging left when giving the second horse Mondammej 7lb in weight. I'll chance Fine Wine to go close from the front, he can certainly improve a bit for that last run. There's not much between them all on ratings is there? Clarendon House also takes his chance, as does Korker.
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I was having another look at Outbreak last night and am starting to quite fancy him assuming he makes the cut.
Horses like Astro King and Saga would also interest me but at current prices I see myself backing Outbreak E/W. Surely open to some more serious improvement.
Seems as if most bookies are only offering four or five places at the moment though.
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