Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

reet hard said:
Quite like the look of Sea Sik Road in the Pinnacle.
Close 2nd in the Ribblesdale (behind subsequent Irish Oaks winner) on fast grond a couple of years ago;with not much rain foecast and Tom Marquand already booked,she looks set to play a major role.
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Ascot's looking rosy for Euro & me.:thumbsup:
 
I haven't been following the thread so apologies if anyone else has mentioned this one but I've taken 11/4 Highfield Princess (NRNB with Hills) for the Kings Stand. That looks very generous. I wouldn't have made the bet without the concession and she seems non-ground-dependent. On her best form, and I can't see her running if they don't think she'll show it, she has little to fear from the current sprinters.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I haven't been following the thread so apologies if anyone else has mentioned this one but I've taken 11/4 Highfield Princess (NRNB with Hills) for the Kings Stand. That looks very generous. I wouldn't have made the bet without the concession and she seems non-ground-dependent. On her best form, and I can't see her running if they don't think she'll show it, she has little to fear from the current sprinters.
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I've had a pound ew on Mitbaahy 100/1. 40s now.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In other words, he was already working back from the Hunt Cup when he ran the other day, which was about preserving his mark of 97 which will just about get him into the race. He needs at least six to come out (plus maybe one or two Irish entries depending on their UK marks) so will probably get in but he wouldn't have made it off his pre-Newmarket rating, where he went along close to the strong pace and kept on strongly, showing a lot of improvement. The other day he doddled along at the head of the nearside group but wasn't asked any serious questions. The run was about getting a duck egg next to his name rather than a 1.

None of that is any guarantee that he wins the Hunt Cup but he will almost certainly be competitive on the day.
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It Was A 40,000 to the winner race, the hunt cup is only worth twice that to the winner, so it's hardly likely he was schooled. He did doddle along, along with the whole field. He was trying all right, but the draw gave him no chance. He was the last of the leading eight to come off the bridle, he was then ridden for his life, whilst the real eyecatcher; Intellogent, pulled him in hand over fist, he too was inconvenienced by the draw but Unlike Outbreak he couldn't get out, went the wrong way twice, was eventually pulled to the outside and whoosh...

Will relish the uphill finish, for me, he's the Intelligent choice
 
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Maxbet said:
It Was A 40,000 to the winner race, the hunt cup is only worth twice that to the winner, so it's hardly likely he was schooled.
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The Johnstons are target trainers. They can school one in a £100k race if it fits their agenda.


Maxbet said:
He did doddle along, along with the whole field. He was trying all right, but the draw gave him no chance. He was the last of the leading eight to come off the bridle, he was then ridden for his life, whilst the real eyecatcher; Intellogent, pulled him in hand over fist, he too was inconvenienced by the draw but Unlike Outbreak he couldn't get out, went the wrong way twice, was eventually pulled to the outside and whoosh...

Will relish the uphill finish, for me, he's the Intelligent choice
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Lots in there, Max, and I agree that Intellogent was a real eyecatcher, which I think I said at the time. We're really just disagreeing about the extent to which the Johnston horse was 'off' and we won't really know until he comes out and wins or runs well in a proper biggie.

Don't know if the link will work but have a look at the race (RTV) and tell me exactly at what point he was "ridden for his life". Atzeni waited till everything else up front had made their move before some token flapping of the elbows then one token slap when he had no chance and then allowed to come home under hands and heels (imvho).

Racing Results | 16:10 Newbury | Sat 20 May 2023 (racingtv.com)

It's entirely possible that he bounced, appearing only 15 days after a very strongly-run race at Newmarket (very slow finishing sectionals). That race would suggest that a very strongly run race will suit him as he was just about last to come off the bridle then so something like the Hunt Cup could be right up his street (but he'll also be up against possible draw/pace biases and an incompetent CoC).

Another encouraging thing for me is the fact that two stablemates came out and fought out the finish of the 1m½f £38k (to the winner) handicap at Epsom. The winner came out and was beaten in an £18k race at Beverley (5/2f) and doesn't hold an entry at Ascot. The runner-up, Dutch Decoy, is engaged this Saturday as well as at Ascot. He and Outbreak are the only two entries left in the race and DD has no chance of making the cut. Outbreak is guaranteed a run at #30 in the list at this stage. 40/1 looks pretty long odds to me...
 
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INTELLOGENT was the eyecatcher no doubt and is always on my radar.i put him up last year.
Not everyone agrees that horses aren't trying but it's a fact.
Sonny Liston was the one I took out of that race.50/1 for the hunt cup.got dropped 3lb to a 100.
Unplaced in the Derby last year.

A lot of trainers do it but it doesnt mean they will win but it gives them a better chance.
 
Maxbet said:
It Was A 40,000 to the winner race, the hunt cup is only worth twice that to the winner, so it's hardly likely he was schooled. He did doddle along, along with the whole field. He was trying all right, but the draw gave him no chance. He was the last of the leading eight to come off the bridle, he was then ridden for his life, whilst the real eyecatcher; Intellogent, pulled him in hand over fist, he too was inconvenienced by the draw but Unlike Outbreak he couldn't get out, went the wrong way twice, was eventually pulled to the outside and whoosh...

Will relish the uphill finish, for me, he's the Intelligent choice
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Joint Favourite
 
Outsider said:
INTELLOGENT was the eyecatcher no doubt and is always on my radar.i put him up last year.
Not everyone agrees that horses aren't trying but it's a fact.
Sonny Liston was the one I took out of that race.50/1 for the hunt cup.got dropped 3lb to a 100.
Unplaced in the Derby last year.

A lot of trainers do it but it doesnt mean they will win but it gives them a better chance.
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Oh the pain.the difference between a profit and a really good profit.
 
Not going to desert him now.

Faylaq.

So whether Goldie himself had a hand in the switch from Ewan Whillans, or the owner moved him, I suspect there was one thing on their mind. The Plate. And who better to be with for a crack.

A couple of weeks ago Faylaq was 50s and sitting at about 70 in the order. Couldn't have taken it then. But now he's 25 of the 48 left, and there's a fair chance he'll creep in to the 20 runners.

Now 33-1 some, but still 50-1 some.

Had a lot of chances. But actually has run some nice races.

Will he stay?

Well, certainly didn't seem to be running on empty in the soft ground, testing, one-and-a-half at Hamilton against Wikiwiki, and similar in the 1m5f race against Postileo.

May have to hang on a bit. Can't see any above that definitely won't go, so there's still a risk.

The consolation race may yet be the one he ends up in.
 
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chaumi said:
Not going to desert him now.

Faylaq.
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Well at least 17 of those above now have jockey's assigned, and Faylaq is still 25th. Plus now Paul Mulrennan is named as jockey in the consolation. I guess they'll wait a bit more...but looks unlikely for a run.

So those nice BF people let me cash out. I do hope that wasn't a mistake.

I think he'll skate home in the consolation. But at what odds?
 
You or should I say we might still get a good price in the consolation race.
One of my best winners on here didnt get in the main race off 94,incredibly, would have made it in easily this year.
I couldnt believe Cosmelli was 66/1 for the vase and duly won by a nose.and in a faster time than the main race.
The horse it beat was one of Goldies.
 
I put this on the Longshot thread ahead of Reshoun's race at Haydock on 27 May:

Desert Orchid said:
Haydock 1.50 - Reshoun 25/1, 3pl, BOG - I tried to be a wee bit smart with this one. It was 33/1 on Thursday when I did the race and I decided to wait until this morning for it to drift a fair bit, as it had done at Chester when it went off at 100/1 and was tailed off. I was hoping for at least 40s, which I think it touched in places yesterday evening, maybe even 50s or 66s but it looks like someone of influence has put it up and it has gone blue across the board so I've taken a small bet at the 25s. Formerly with Ian Williams, who trains the favourite which I'd mentioned on this thread for Chester and which was unlucky there, I don't really expect too much, to be honest, but the price is too long if it retains its ability.
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Although beaten 40 lengths, I thought it ran with much more promise than that bare result and the losing distance was somewhat exaggerated by the jockey easing it right down. There was money for the horse the evening before that race so I've taken a pop for this Northumberland Plate at 80/1 and can go in again if it drifts. If it just has gone into steep decline, fair enough, the money will be wasted but sometimes these old hounds find a going day when the prize money is at a premium...
 
Got a bit of 6s about Remarquee for the Falmouth earlier in the week. She's 5s now but still bettable - there's rumours Inspiral might not go and Via Sistina has been declared for the Pretty Polly on Saturday. I guess Laurel would be a danger but she was pulled from the DoC last week (lame?) and the rest of the likely field are nothing to be afraid of.
 
Faylaq missed it by two, so runs in the Vase. No odds up yet, but anticipating single figures. Mostly Sunny for Heather Main will be very interesting if mid-high double figures, but think he might have blown that with the last run at Goodwood. Could be very hard to pass if going off in front as expected. Was entered in the Plate but never got high enough. I suspect that was disappointing for the stable, but they'll think he can win this.
 
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chaumi said:
Faylaq missed it by two, so runs in the Vase. No odds up yet, but anticipating single figures. Mostly Sunny for Heather Main will be very interesting if mid-high double figures, but think he might have blown that with the last run at Goodwood. Could be very hard to pass if going off in front as expected. Was entered in the Plate but never got high enough. I suspect that was disappointing for the stable, but they'll think he can win this.
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16/1 betfair chaum.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I put this on the Longshot thread ahead of Reshoun's race at Haydock on 27 May:



Although beaten 40 lengths, I thought it ran with much more promise than that bare result and the losing distance was somewhat exaggerated by the jockey easing it right down. There was money for the horse the evening before that race so I've taken a pop for this Northumberland Plate at 80/1 and can go in again if it drifts. If it just has gone into steep decline, fair enough, the money will be wasted but sometimes these old hounds find a going day when the prize money is at a premium...
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Not declared.
 
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