Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

I'll probably have a saver on him nearer the time.

He's got that form in the race from last season and is about 10lbs lower now isn't he.

If he came back to that form he's a danger. A big if though maybe...

I admire your and Outsiders approach of identifying these horses sliding down the handicap, and you've both had some good successes here and there.

When I try it I end up backing lethargic looking animals who it becomes clear are just regressing with time.

Rohaan who you mentioned is another one with this sort of profile. Class horse on his day dropping in the weights.

My early Stewards pick Badri still has a career best in him I reckon.
 
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Marb said:
I'll probably have a saver on him nearer the time.

He's got that form in the race from last season and is about 10lbs lower now isn't he.

If he came back to that form he's a danger. A big if though maybe...

I admire your and Outsiders approach of identifying these horses sliding down the handicap, and you've both had some good successes here and there.

When I try it I end up backing lethargic looking animals who it becomes clear are just regressing with time.

Rohaan who you mentioned is another one with this sort of profile. Class horse on his day dropping in the weights.

My early Stewards pick Badri still has a career best in him I reckon.
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I'd be pretty certain that Badri still has a career best in him and likely to keep improving for a while, but so will half the Goodwood field.

Races like the mega heritage handicaps are a wee bit like Cheltenham festival races. You get lots of horses who are trained for one festival race per year and the rest of the time is spent getting its mark back down.

I would be pretty confident that Watson has been trying to get Tabdeed's mark back down since just missing out last year. He'll feel he has unfinished business with the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'd be pretty certain that Badri still has a career best in him and likely to keep improving for a while, but so will half the Goodwood field.

Races like the mega heritage handicaps are a wee bit like Cheltenham festival races. You get lots of horses who are trained for one festival race per year and the rest of the time is spent getting its mark back down.

I would be pretty confident that Watson has been trying to get Tabdeed's mark back down since just missing out last year. He'll feel he has unfinished business with the race.
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The Big Board raised 4lbs to 96. Badri kept on 100.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've had my first dabble in this [Stewards' Cup] market today: Tabdeed 25/1, 5 places. No doubt seven or eight places will be available on the day but I'm happy to get in early on this one.
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Followed up this morning with Summerghand (25/1). Happy to take the price and only four places for now. I don't know why it had got into my mind that it was skipping the race (maybe mixing it up with another horse, Rohaan or Commanche Falls, mibbes) but browsing the ATR site I came across this quote from the trainer:

[FONT=&quot]He has been a grand servant to the yard and usually ignites in the second half of the season. Hopefully he can follow suit once more and races like the Stewards’ Cup would be on the agenda again.[/FONT]
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He gets in off a really low mark relative to his true ability and would probably win on his best form. He won it off 108 in 2020 and is off 100 this time, same as last year when he was a tad unlucky on the far side before taking the Ayr Gold Cup off 2lbs higher. He's currently on 97 and could well end up at Ayr off the same mark as last year as well. That would be nearly a quarter of a million in first prize money in two races. One to have onside, I reckon.
 
Moet & Chandon International Sat 29th Tacarib Bay

Currently sitting at 25-1 (already mopped up the little available on BF that was bigger, but it might reappear).

Seems sensible to assume this is a season target, and 25's looks too big for his chances. Assuming he does run, can see him going off lower.

Don't see anything in the market leaders to suggest he can't run a race against them. Gelded in early May, I'm guessing Hannon has given him a break since that to be ready (oh, the folly of trying to second-guess trainers' intentions!)


Note : this race was my guess at Goldie's intent for Fools Rush In. Only got done a short head by Tacarib Bay in a Haydock C2 last year. But FRI has done nothing really this year to ensure he gets in, though was mildly better than previous runs in a 6f Hamilton handicap a few days back. I'd say not soft enough that day, certainly not at 6f. Doesn't look as if he'll make it to Saturday.

Both have nothing to fear from soft ground over 7.

*Edit* Fools gets in. Hope it rains cats and dogs half the week in Berkshire. FC looks good! 80-1 best currently, wouldn't be surprised to see 100 or more.
 
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One ante-post bet on the docket (flat) and that's Regional in the King George Sprint. Not wholly convinced a really fast 5 will suit Highfield Princess and I think she's worth taking on at short odds. I was really impressed with Regional at Haydock and 9/1 is tidy enough.
 
chaumi said:
Moet & Chandon International Sat 29th Tacarib Bay

Currently sitting at 25-1 (already mopped up the little available on BF that was bigger, but it might reappear).

Seems sensible to assume this is a season target, and 25's looks too big for his chances. Assuming he does run, can see him going off lower.

Don't see anything in the market leaders to suggest he can't run a race against them. Gelded in early May, I'm guessing Hannon has given him a break since that to be ready (oh, the folly of trying to second-guess trainers' intentions!)


Note : this race was my guess at Goldie's intent for Fools Rush In. Only got done a short head by Tacarib Bay in a Haydock C2 last year. But FRI has done nothing really this year to ensure he gets in, though was mildly better than previous runs in a 6f Hamilton handicap a few days back. I'd say not soft enough that day, certainly not at 6f. Doesn't look as if he'll make it to Saturday.

Both have nothing to fear from soft ground over 7.

*Edit* Fools gets in. Hope it rains cats and dogs half the week in Berkshire. FC looks good! 80-1 best currently, wouldn't be surprised to see 100 or more.
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I've just started working on the race, chaumi. I'll let you know how the figures shape up.
 
Euronymous said:
One ante-post bet on the docket (flat) and that's Regional in the King George Sprint. Not wholly convinced a really fast 5 will suit Highfield Princess and I think she's worth taking on at short odds. I was really impressed with Regional at Haydock and 9/1 is tidy enough.
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Trainer quoted today in the SL saying he doesn't think regional enjoyed Goodwood on his last visit and thinks he'll go straight to the nunthorpe.
 
Is he on Crack? He was placed in a good Stewards Cup despite plainly being better over 5. He's not winning the Nunthorpe but he can win this. I saw an interview where he said it was either City Walls/King George and then Nunthorpe. Thought with the York race having been and gone this was the target.
 
ORBAAN international saturday. PP are going 100/1 that is massive.i dont have PP so took 66/1 5 places with skybet
Won off a lb higher at ascot after goodwood over 7f.worth a pound ew.
 
Re The International - if it pisses down all week Baradar will be hard to beat assuming the jockey goes in a straight line this time around. grrr
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've just started working on the race, chaumi. I'll let you know how the figures shape up.
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Can't muster up too much enthusiasm for either, chaumi, but if you go back far enough last season there's a chance if they can get back to that level, which came with give, particularly the Goldie horse when with Palmer before being sold at the end of the season. Goldie is great at getting a tune out of these types but, as you say, the horse hasn't given much cause for enthusiasm so far.

No shortage of others on my radar, needless to say!
 
Outsider said:
ORBAAN international saturday. PP are going 100/1 that is massive.i dont have PP so took 66/1 5 places with skybet
Won off a lb higher at ascot after goodwood over 7f.worth a pound ew.
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Totally agree, Outsider, and I've taken the 100s with PP (small enough stakes so as not to get the restrictions to kick in). I suspect it won't run but if it does there's no way it should be a longshot.
 
One I will be interested in in the stewards cup is GREAT MAX
Mainly runs over 7 to 10 furlongs but if you watch his last run in the Buckingham palace he led the far side for 6 of the 7 furlongs and if hes better drawn at goodwood and they try the same tactics then he could get in the mix.
Generally 33s with bet365 40/1 but I dont think he will shorten so I can wait until the decs.
 
Skybet dash saturday.

SUMMERGHAND 16/1 5places (unibet 20s)

It runs off 97 here and off 100? In the stewards cup.
Win on saturday carry penalty and finish unplaced and then win the ayr gold cup
Prize money for this saturday and ayr gold cup equals the stewards cup.
Sorted.
 
From #1931 above:

Desert Orchid said:
[Stewards Cup] Followed up this morning with Summerghand (25/1). Happy to take the price and only four places for now. I don't know why it had got into my mind that it was skipping the race (maybe mixing it up with another horse, Rohaan or Commanche Falls, mibbes) but browsing the ATR site I came across this quote from the trainer:

[Won't copy/paste]

He gets in off a really low mark relative to his true ability and would probably win on his best form. He won it off 108 in 2020 and is off 100 this time, same as last year when he was a tad unlucky on the far side before taking the Ayr Gold Cup off 2lbs higher. He's currently on 97 and could well end up at Ayr off the same mark as last year as well. That would be nearly a quarter of a million in first prize money in two races. One to have onside, I reckon.
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I reckon he can take both of the big ones, Outsider.<body id="cke_pastebin" style="position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden; left: -1000px;">
He has been a grand servant to the yard and usually ignites in the second half of the season. Hopefully he can follow suit once more and races like the Stewards’ Cup would be on the agenda again.</body>
 
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