Bet Victor Gold Cup

Does anyone know of Ball' D'arc is an intended runner? I like him a lot for this, but I don't know whether Elliott has made the entry with a view to deciding nearer the time.
 
Ball D'Arc is entered in Poplar Square this weekend, Paul. Has to be rated a doubtful runner, and isn't certain stay or get his ground anyway.
 
Three of my final four in the decs.

I've already backed Tully East, and will play Plaisir D'Amour and Days of Heaven in forecasts and tricasts, if they run.

Gold Present is a danger, now that he is certain of a run, and I might have to have a cover-bet there.
 
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Fleming knows how to get them fit early but tend they tail off a bit, somewhat like the Alan King syndrome

I had the horse as potentially really good in his early days, now ill settle for just quite good
 
Gold Present is weighted to reverse Festival form with Tully East and he's been on my tracker since his run in the Pendil so he's nice cover for my possie on the fav.
 
I'm trying to put the pieces together on Twitter, but it looks like Ruth Jefferson may have forgotten to declare Cloudy Dream for this.
 
I can't help thinking Nicholls is going to win this. I'll probably start backing whatever has Sam T-D up as soon as it's announced.
 
Des if your thinking of doing that because its a pointer to his best chance just be aware that Le Prezien trained by Nicholls and owned by JP so will be ridden by Geraghty i should imagine. Personally i think its his best chance and I think it would be as close to a "good thing" as you can get in a big handicap.

Sorry hadnt seen posts as posting on phone from work on the sly :ninja:
 
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granger said:
Do you often bet based on factors outside of your ratings?
Click to expand...

Not often, but it's not unknown. Sometimes you just have to conclude ratings probably won't be the best guide. For similar reasons, I wonder about Plaisir D'Amour's chances. I liked Belami Des Pictons originally based on a balance of ratings and profile, but they've bodyswerved this and have Aso and PDA still in. Aso is a bit better in than I'd originally figures as he's been dropped in the handicap since I did my figures. But he doesn't strike me as low enough to win so why is PDA still there? Being just five, it may well have made inordinate progress over the summer.
 
Danny said:
Des if your thinking of doing that because its a pointer to his best chance just be aware that Le Prezien trained by Nicholls and owned by JP so will be ridden by Geraghty i should imagine.
Click to expand...

Of course, Danny. I'm sure it would have occurred to me once I saw the colours but it did escape me until you mentioned it!
 
CHL 2.25 BETVICTOR GOLD CUP HANDICAP CHASE (GR3)(CLASS 1) Winner £91,120 22 runners 2m4f78y Good To Soft ITV
NO.FORMHORSEAGEWGTTRAINER RTF%JOCKEYORTSMON
(173+)		NotesRPR
22554-
Kylemore Lough[SUP]225[/SUP]811-7Harry Fry[SUP]58[/SUP]
154151180y170
142F15/6
Ballyalton[SUP]20[/SUP]1010-10Ian Williams[SUP]67[/SUP]
143—176
—
224218-9
Lake Takapuna[SUP]106[/SUP]69-10J H Culloty
129114173p L159
153346-
Top Gamble[SUP]225[/SUP]911-12Kerry Lee[SUP]17[/SUP]
159148172
167
38434-5
Aso[SUP]20[/SUP]711-6Venetia Williams[SUP]44[/SUP]
153159172p169
4138P-2
Le Prezien[SUP]21[/SUP]611-3Paul Nicholls[SUP]59[/SUP]
150152172p +?166
71-1174
Days Of Heaven[SUP]28[/SUP]711-2Nicky Henderson[SUP]50[/SUP]
149150172p167
112227-4
Theinval[SUP]14[/SUP]710-13Nicky Henderson[SUP]50[/SUP]
146158172
169
151522F-
Gold Present[SUP]225[/SUP]710-9Nicky Henderson[SUP]50[/SUP]
142149172p166
60PP2-7
Viconte Du Noyer[SUP]21[/SUP]811-3Colin Tizzard[SUP]73[/SUP]
150115171p167
101F92-1
Foxtail Hill[SUP]21[/SUP]811-0Nigel Twiston-Davies[SUP]56[/SUP]
147152171p164
82514-2
Clan Des Obeaux[SUP]5[/SUP]511-1Paul Nicholls[SUP]59[/SUP]
148145170++167
1811315-
Plaisir D´Amour[SUP]203[/SUP]510-5Venetia Williams[SUP]44[/SUP]
138151170p168
1713U26
Bentelimar[SUP]66[/SUP]810-6Charlie Longsdon[SUP]33[/SUP]
139142169y160
9621P-4
Tully East[SUP]31[/SUP]711-1Alan Fleming
148119168p162
21971-4
Mystifiable[SUP]34[/SUP]99-11Fergal O´Brien[SUP]80[/SUP]
130134167L163
551-111
Double Treasure[SUP]21[/SUP]611-3Jamie Snowden[SUP]50[/SUP]
150133166+p166
12752-11
Romain De Senam[SUP]28[/SUP]510-12Paul Nicholls[SUP]59[/SUP]
145149166+p
176 Hd		166
16F320-1
Aqua Dude[SUP]41[/SUP]710-6Evan Williams[SUP]56[/SUP]
139138166p165
1902221
Guitar Pete[SUP]15[/SUP]710-1Nicky Richards[SUP]67[/SUP]
134138166p +?
[169Hd]		167
131535-1
Starchitect[SUP]16[/SUP]610-11David Pipe[SUP]67[/SUP]
144152164+?
171 Hd		166
202500-4
Splash Of Ginge[SUP]15[/SUP]910-1Nigel Twiston-Davies[SUP]56[/SUP]
13488?168 Hd
{184+}		155

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L – long handicap mark, to be adjusted should Top Gamble run

Could this be the strongest ever in-depth running of this race?

The target figure in brackets at the top of the MON column indicates the level required to win an average Class 2 Saturday handicap (usually worth at least £20k). It is entirely probably that every single runner in this field could win such a race, allowing for ongoing improvement. I couldn’t put anyone off anything.

I think it might take 180 on the scale to win so I’m going to limit myself to those with prospects of getting close to that. They would be:

Kylemore Lough, Ballyalton, Lake Takapuna, Le Prezien, Days Of Heaven, Gold Present, Clan Des Obeaux, Plaisir D’Amour, Romain De Senam, Guitar Pete and Starchitect.

I could include Splash Of Ginge on his very best old form which was over this CD but I doubt he has the winning of this and he may be there to ensure no prisoners are taken in the quest to set up the race for Foxtail Hill.

It’s still a very long list – half the field – so in an attempt to be ruthless and whittle it down to a maximum of three, I’m going to eliminate Starchitect (worried about overall class), Guitar Pete (likewise), Gold Present (read somewhere they were struggling to get him fit) and Lake Takapuna (not convinced about his rating and class for this). I can’t make a strong enough case for Days Of Heaven either, given his overall profile.

For the time being, the ones that are left strike me as a strong hand.

Kylemore Lough definitely has the class, is very leniently handicapped on the basis of his Grade 2 run at Ascot (would have won in another stride with solid markers behind) and his desperately unlucky run here behind Frodon in the Massey-Ferguson (Caspian) as he’s 2lbs lower here.

Ballyalton has had his problems but was impressive in taking the Close Brothers at the 2016 Festival. He’s only 3lbs higher here, having been dropped 6lbs for his two subsequent poor efforts, both of which are easy to explain away. Runner-up Bouvreuil went up 8lbs for it. The third, Double Shuffle, now runs off 13lbs higher. The fifth, Twelve Roses, beaten 8½ lengths, won next time out by 3¾ off the same mark. That’s all good form and the stable took the two feature races last weekend with London Prize and Saunter so they’re clearly operating at the top of their game and then some. I don’t imagine Ballyalton will be coming here in the least bit undercooked.

The three Nicholls horses I’m holding back on until I know riding plans. I presume Geraghty will ride Le Prezien but Sam T-D is reportedly out injured so we’ll see who rides which of the other two. My gut says Clan Des Obeaux is ‘the one’.

Plaisir D’Amour is, I’m presuming, the main Venetia Williams hope. Aso doesn’t look good enough and Belami Des Pictons doesn’t go. Maybe they’re weighing up all the likely opposition to the last named ahead of the Massey-Ferguson (Caspian) next month back here but I was disappointed with the finishing effort of Gardefort last week and suspect the yard is some way off form despite old Houblon Des Obeaux’s win in a veterans’ chase at Sandown.

At the time of writing I plan to back Kylemore Lough and Ballyalton. I’ll decide on the Nicholls runners on the day.
 
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Great write-up, DO - thanks.

Note that Clan Des Obeaux ran at Kempton yesterday, and is therefore presumably rated an unlikely runner?

I took another look at the race last night. The only fresh conclusions I came to, were that Starchitect looked better handicapped off 144 than I previously thought, after what was a decent outing at Stratford last weekend. I also thought Theinval was mildly interesting (now carrying a low-weight), and made a note to have a few quid on, if he was Henderson's only runner (basically switch him with Days Of Heaven, in fcs and tcs).

I go to war with Aso and Tully East, plus a couple small plays at big prices on Plaisir D'Amour and Days of Heaven. Bets on Politologue and Waiting Patiently have already gone South for winter.

Good luck.
 
Grasshopper said:
Great write-up, DO - thanks.

Note that Clan Des Obeaux ran at Kempton yesterday, and is therefore presumably rated an unlikely runner?

I took another look at the race last night. The only fresh conclusions I came to, were that Starchitect looked better handicapped off 144 than I previously thought, after what was a decent outing at Stratford last weekend. I also thought Theinval was mildly interesting (now carrying a low-weight), and made a note to have a few quid on, if he was Henderson's only runner (basically switch him with Days Of Heaven, in fcs and tcs).

I go to war with Aso and Tully East, plus a couple small plays at big prices on Plaisir D'Amour and Days of Heaven. Bets on Politologue and Waiting Patiently have already gone South for winter.

Good luck.
Click to expand...

I also like Aso but fear he needs the ground a fair bit softer to be seen at his best. Starchitect is a bit of a fav of mine but he doesn't often run 2 good races in a row.
I'll be having a wee ew on Guitar Pete who i reckon still have plenty of improvement in him and Mystifiable.
 
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