Betfair Hurdle

I'm a bit on the fence with that one. We'll know when we see Faugheen in the paddock. I reckon Willie might will have him sharp fit after his layoff, with only really three races between now and season end, so I'll be waiting to see if he's carrying his usual season opener condition before investing a few minutes before the race.
 
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reet hard said:
Tbh, TNO looks a good bet to grab his first gd1 2 miler today He's just a galloper, and today's holding ground and weak opposition look the perfect opportunity for STD to get the fractions right for a a change - won't make him a good horse, though
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Not a gd1 - of course; though the 15/8 was sweet.:)
 
Nice one DG. Song Light needs 7 to come out, I reckon its 70/30 he gets a run, probably just sneak in. Gone off Ch'tibello a bit, I'll have a saver if he runs though.
 
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I wonder why Nick hasn't entered Le Rocher for this. He'll likely get his ground and is certainly well handicapped, in fact I fancy him more for the race at Cheltenham on Saturday than Wait for Me.
 
I've done my first trawl of the ratings and am drawing towards the conclusion that Mick Jazz might not be Elliott's best hope in this. The handicapper put him up a bit for that unlucky run last time and although he remains a solid short-list candidate I suspect others from the yard might now have a better chance. Right now, though, I don't know which one(s)!

I have dipped a toe in the water with an ante-post bet, though, as I wasn't prepared to back anything at this stage at less than 33/1 and ideally wanted 50s but the bookies aren't really giving much away.

The one I've gone for - and that will probably cause much mirth among the forumites - is Jaleo at 40/1. It's quite a left-field selection but my reason for liking it a lot at this stage is its last run when it fell at the first in the Lanzarote. (I can hear the guffawing already.)

In my review of the race I wrote:

One that I will definitely be taking out of the race is Jaleo who fell at the first but was up on his feet like a flash and soon overtook the field, after which he ran round against the wide outside rail the whole way but was never headed and came home four lengths in front of Modus. He might just be a thoroughly genuine horse and generous runner and maybe the jockey’s weight would have stopped him but I liked what I saw. The last time I saw such a performance it was by the chaser Yes Tom who won next time at 20/1 so Jaleo is the first horse this season to go into my tracker. If we estimate that Kempton is on average 20 yards wide all the way round, Jaleo has run more than half a furlong further than the rest of the field and still finished in front of them, ears pricked. It’s impossible to quantify how much difference the weight would have made or to know if the going was much better out wide but it is rare for a loose horse to complete an entire race in front let alone conceding so much ground. If you have the race recorded, check it out.
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Take it how you will :o
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've done my first trawl of the ratings and am drawing towards the conclusion that Mick Jazz might not be Elliott's best hope in this. The handicapper put him up a bit for that unlucky run last time and although he remains a solid short-list candidate I suspect others from the yard might now have a better chance. Right now, though, I don't know which one(s)!
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The Gordon Elliott trained Veinard ran an eye catching race in the coral handicap hurdle in Ireland at the weekend. Looked to be absolutely cruising coming to the last, but seemed to leave his finishing effort just too late and saw a wall of horses in front of him. Probably no chance of getting in to the Betfair, but definitely very well handicapped off OR 126 imo. Although an 8yo and he has run in a few competitive h'cap hurdle races, I think he might actually still be a novice. Certainly one that intrigues me!
 
Jaleo ran like a drain today, DO.

I had him short-listed for this too, but as you say, he tipped-up at the first (in what I thought was going fo be his prep) last time, so I didn't back him, and he was just awful this afternoon.

It will be some stroke if he manages to win a race like this, on the back of those two efforts.
 
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I left him alone today in the expectation that he would not win and it probably explains why he's 40/1. I don't think he was that price last week but I haven't really been tracking the betting. He was also weak in the betting today.

He was still engaged at the final dec stage a week after his last run only for the meeting to be abandoned and I had no intention of backing him then either. They really wouldn't want a penalty in a race like the Betfair.

Maybe he's the type that runs best without a jockey anyway :lol:

Anyway, he was heavily backed in the Fred Winter which takes a helluva winning, he was only 8/1 for the Lanzarote and had been favourite for his previous four runs so somebody clearly likes him enough to get involved financially. If anyone has the original entries they can maybe check but I'm pretty sure Pauling had four or five in the race and he's down to this sole rep.

I don't even have a quantifiable rating for him, just a '++' and 'NB' in my notes.
 
It's an interesting angle. Something to bear in mind though is that by being on the wide outside Jaleo only jumped the obstacles in the home straight.

There was a horse, Misty Lady, which did something similar at Thurles last week. She unseated at the 2nd but kept going, jumped every fence and was first past the post. The remarkable thing was the way she hunted round at the back and started picking them up from three out. Des Scahill suggested she may have distracted and caused the fall of Keppols Queen who led into the last but in fact she jumped it straight and clean.

Worth keeping an eye on I think.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
If anyone has the original entries they can maybe check but I'm pretty sure Pauling had four or five in the race and he's down to this sole rep.

I don't even have a quantifiable rating for him, just a '++' and 'NB' in my notes.
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Jaleo was Pauling's only entry originally
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've done my first trawl of the ratings and am drawing towards the conclusion that Mick Jazz might not be Elliott's best hope in this. The handicapper put him up a bit for that unlucky run last time and although he remains a solid short-list candidate I suspect others from the yard might now have a better chance. Right now, though, I don't know which one(s)!

I have dipped a toe in the water with an ante-post bet, though, as I wasn't prepared to back anything at this stage at less than 33/1 and ideally wanted 50s but the bookies aren't really giving much away.

The one I've gone for - and that will probably cause much mirth among the forumites - is Jaleo at 40/1. It's quite a left-field selection but my reason for liking it a lot at this stage is its last run when it fell at the first in the Lanzarote. (I can hear the guffawing already.)

In my review of the race I wrote:



Take it how you will :o
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I was going to message you about that horse DO as wondered if you still fancy it. Good to hear you do, I'll have a couple of quid ew on it. Cheers
 
I can't have an ante post bet in this race in case Sutton Place turns up. If Elliott sends him for this first time up then surely he's been protecting his mark and he'll be hugely interesting, not least for the benefit of my TTF :D
 
OK, folks, here's a little Betfair Hurdle teaser for you:

Would you fancy Faugheen in this race off 147?

If Faugheen was in this race off 147, what price would you expect it to be?

I won't say any more just now other than that I've also backed the horse I have in mind with this teaser, as I'm going out until late afternoon. Maybe those of you with time to waste will work out what it is but I will explain it later.

I can tell you, I've got it at odds against :rolleyes:
 
The horse of 2015 would be chucked in off 130 but it'll take a huge leap of faith that he's the same horse after whatever kept him off the track for a year and half. Will he even get in ?
 
Home early.

Archie is correct.

Obviously how much ability Bertimont retains is open to question but Skelton has built up a reputation over the last couple of years as a plunderer of good handicap hurdles. I can't imagine he'd have entered Bertimont for this if he thought he was gone at the game.

DG was good enough to tell us Pauling only had the one entry originally so I'm hoping he can tell us how many Skelton had to start with. He also has Ch'tibello in the race and Sam Red, neither of which strikes me as an obvious candidate.

I think he'll make the cut. Four horses rated below 130 got in last year.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
DG was good enough to tell us Pauling only had the one entry originally so I'm hoping he can tell us how many Skelton had to start with. He also has Ch'tibello in the race and Sam Red, neither of which strikes me as an obvious candidate.
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Four Dessie, the three above plus Meet The Legend
 
William H Bonney ran a good trial for this yesterday and looks excellent each-way value at 20/1.

A strong traveller, he could be named the winner from some way out. With hindsight, it may be that he hit the front a bit soon because he didn't seem to be doing much once he did but he always had things under control.

King indicated afterwards that he's likely to go for the Betfair. A 5lb penalty takes him up to 10-8. He'll probably go up by about that anyway so he won't actually look either well-in or badly-in but he's lightly-raced and on the up and he looks just the right type to me.
 
Grey said:
It's an interesting angle. Something to bear in mind though is that by being on the wide outside Jaleo only jumped the obstacles in the home straight.

There was a horse, Misty Lady, which did something similar at Thurles last week. She unseated at the 2nd but kept going, jumped every fence and was first past the post. The remarkable thing was the way she hunted round at the back and started picking them up from three out. Des Scahill suggested she may have distracted and caused the fall of Keppols Queen who led into the last but in fact she jumped it straight and clean.

Worth keeping an eye on I think.
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Misty Lady runs in half an hour in the opener at Fairyhouse
 
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