Betfair Hurdle

I don't blame you, I've lost far more than I should opposing Mullins hotpots.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
Home early.

Archie is correct.

Obviously how much ability Bertimont retains is open to question but Skelton has built up a reputation over the last couple of years as a plunderer of good handicap hurdles. I can't imagine he'd have entered Bertimont for this if he thought he was gone at the game.

DG was good enough to tell us Pauling only had the one entry originally so I'm hoping he can tell us how many Skelton had to start with. He also has Ch'tibello in the race and Sam Red, neither of which strikes me as an obvious candidate.

I think he'll make the cut. Four horses rated below 130 got in last year.
Click to expand...

Finished 2nd in a handicap hurdle at Taunton this afternoon.
 
fonz said:
Finished 2nd in a handicap hurdle at Taunton this afternoon.
Click to expand...

I was just on checking the result when my brother phoned. Apparently he'd texted me this morning to tell me it was running (but I'm not a mobile phone kind of guy - only switch it on when I'm going out). He watched it on TV and says it looked like winning for a long way and the first two were a good bit (nine lengths) clear of the third. He said it travelled very easily through the race but seemed not quite to get home and wondered if maybe it needed the run. He also wondered if they felt he maybe needed to show a wee glimpse of the old ability prior to next Saturday. He's still 50s in some places but has gone blue in half a dozen or so.

Meantime, Mick Jazz turned over an odds-on shot in Ireland today and has gone blue across the board (average 10/1?) but I don't know from what previous price. He'll have a penalty. Bertimont won't. But I don't know if Bertimont will even run.
 
That's pretty much exactly how I would have put it too although to my the jockey did seem to taking quite a wide course with him at times too.
Definetly one to follow for the next couple of runs although I'd seriously doubt he'll run next weekend.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I was just on checking the result when my brother phoned. Apparently he'd texted me this morning to tell me it was running (but I'm not a mobile phone kind of guy - only switch it on when I'm going out). He watched it on TV and says it looked like winning for a long way and the first two were a good bit (nine lengths) clear of the third. He said it travelled very easily through the race but seemed not quite to get home and wondered if maybe it needed the run. He also wondered if they felt he maybe needed to show a wee glimpse of the old ability prior to next Saturday. He's still 50s in some places but has gone blue in half a dozen or so.

Meantime, Mick Jazz turned over an odds-on shot in Ireland today and has gone blue across the board (average 10/1?) but I don't know from what previous price. He'll have a penalty. Bertimont won't. But I don't know if Bertimont will even run.
Click to expand...
I mentioned on the novice hurdle thread that Elliott said after the race that the County hurdle was the target now for Mick Jazz, DO. No mention of the Betfair Hurdle.
 
Think I'm going to have a couple of quid each way on Boite for this, I don't think we've seen the best of him and I think 142 is workable.

At 40s I think he's a fair each way.
 
What about Keep In Line from Alan Kings yard?

Does anyone remember 2014 winner Splash Of Ginge? He won his novice hurdle well, then got beat at graded hurdle level, before winning The Betfair, from a rating in the mid 130's. Maybe Alan King has wholeheartedly planned the same with Keep In line.

Left field this theory is, it has to be said. :)
 
Last edited:
I think trainers are starting to exploit the potential of novices in these races. Not just Splash Of Ginge, but weren't Zarkandar, Darlan and a few other winners/placed horses either still in or just out of the novice stage?

I remember about 10 years ago, maybe more, Pricewise went on a roll with novice chasers running in staying handicaps and time eventually bearing out the theory that they were under-rated. I think the handicapping team have since addressed that particular issue to a large degree.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think trainers are starting to exploit the potential of novices in these races. Not just Splash Of Ginge, but weren't Zarkandar, Darlan and a few other winners/placed horses either still in or just out of the novice stage?

I remember about 10 years ago, maybe more, Pricewise went on a roll with novice chasers running in staying handicaps and time eventually bearing out the theory that they were under-rated. I think the handicapping team have since addressed that particular issue to a large degree.
Click to expand...

Darlan sadly fell horribly as he did fatally a year later at Donny .
 
I've taken another look at yesterday's race result (haven't yet checked the video).

One a very generous reading of the form you could argue that it might be unusually strong form for the grade. As is often the case if it seems too good to be true it probably is but...

The winner Hint Of Mint has an excellent record at the course and might well have been, like Bertimont, potentially thrown in. He was off 130 yesterday but had been raised to 142 in the first half of season 14-15, when trained by Nick Williams, after running The New One to just over two lengths in a Listed race at Kempton. Forgotten Voice and Starluck, then rated 144 and 140 respectively, were the next two home at level weights with him. He was then fifth in the Elite off his new mark beaten over seven lengths but was hampered at the last but for which he'd have been a couple of lengths closer.

In front of him were Forgotten Voice (getting a pound plus De Boinville's allowance), Rock On Ruby, Bertimont (then rated 148) and the winner Purple Bay who was raised 7lbs to 161 for the win and next time got to within eight lengths of Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle.

Hint Of Mint then ran to his new mark behind Faugheen in the Coral Hurdle before losing his form and then missing the following season. He moved to Fry earlier this season by which time his OR had dropped to 130 and a couple of poor runs saw it lowered again to 123. Fry seems to have got him interested again and a photo-finish defeat has now been followed up by two wins. He'll probably go up another few pounds for yesterday (I reckon by 7lbs).

Meantime, Bertimont has also come down to 130 so was potentially well-handicapped yesterday too even if he was trying to avoid a penalty.

As I say, it is a very generous reading of the form but at least it offers a bit of hope regarding Saturday.

If he runs... :confused:
 
Last edited:
just a short mention but the winner of the Elite Hurdle was also hampered by the fall of Irving, not only Hint of Mint. I know its not in the race commentary but I remember the race as I was following the profitable PB through that summer till the winter.

Reg. yesterday race, I don't think you have to be too generous to take a positive view of it. winner is a low 140 and 2nd a mid 150 at their best and they proved it when going h2h for the last furlongs leaving behind by 10-15l mid 120 rated animals also conceding weight.
 
Horses such as Bertimont, Keep In Line, Mick Jazz and Ch'tibello not declared, or havn't made the cut?, judging by Paddy Power prices on oddschecker.
 
Last edited:
Betfair_zps3bwxmzdv.jpg
 
RP headline today was that he wasn't a certain runner.

I can't help but think it would have been race over had he run so they must have big plans to pass up such a rich prize - or they think it'd be too soon for him at this stage of his career, probably a bit of both.

Unlikely he'll head for the Champion now Buveur Dair is back on the scene and they know that the BHA will hammer him if they enter him for the County so I'm really not sure where he goes next.
 
gus said:
William H Bonney ran a good trial for this yesterday and looks excellent each-way value at 20/1.

A strong traveller, he could be named the winner from some way out. With hindsight, it may be that he hit the front a bit soon because he didn't seem to be doing much once he did but he always had things under control.

King indicated afterwards that he's likely to go for the Betfair. A 5lb penalty takes him up to 10-8. He'll probably go up by about that anyway so he won't actually look either well-in or badly-in but he's lightly-raced and on the up and he looks just the right type to me.
Click to expand...
8's now, Gus. You certainly have value at 20/1. Good luck.

I wonder if DO has considered his name sake, Eddiemaurice, right down there at the bottom of the weights!
 
Marble said:
Horses such as Bertimont, Keep In Line, Mick Jazz and Ch'tibello not declared, or havn't made the cut?, judging by Paddy Power prices on oddschecker.
Click to expand...

Krugermac was bottom of the pile already so anything above him not declared is just that - not declared.
 
Renneti 151
Hargam 146
Clyne 143
Boite 142
Zubayr 141
Consul de Thaix 140
De Name Escapes Me 139
Wait For Me 138
William H Bonney 137
Ballyhill 136
Kayf Blanco 136
Movewiththetimes 136
Ballyandy 135
Beltor 135
Kapstadt 135
Gassin Golf 133
Song Light 133
Eddiemaurice 126
Veinard 126
Krugermac 119
 
My shortlist (as of today)....... is Clyne, William H Bonney, Songlight, & Eddiemaurice.

A hold up horse, Eddiemaurice should be suited by a strong gallop, especially if he's fast enough to pick his rivals off towards the finish. He had Le Rocher back in fourth when he won his Ascot race, who's franked the form since, so that performance looks fine.
Eddiemaurice might be each way value, me thinks.

I wonder what the thread creator Grasshopper now thinks is the winner? Any strong ideas, GH?
 
Last edited:
Anyone else having trouble accessing the Saturday cards at the RP site?

I seem to be able to access them through to Sunday (!) but Saturday isn't in there :mad:
 
Back
Top