Betfair Hurdle

Top man, cheers Danny.

I'm a small bettor, and 95 percent of my betting is for a sporting interest for a sport that's a hobby.

I do occasionally bet bigger amounts but only if I've had a good win on the dogs. :)

I don't use my Betfair account that often these days, but might log in and deposit to have a few kopeks on Balko after final declarations, if he gets the heavy ground. Back-to-lay off stake plus a bit profit is my plan. But we'll see.

I'm off to read the ATR article. :)
 
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Lets say ground did come up heavy...what horses at top of market would or wouldn't act/perform in those conditions do we think?

Balko's a Frenchie with a clear preference for it, so at least Donald McCain is making sense lol.
 
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I've taken a little sickness insurance on Divin Bere at 40/1.

He's now Nicholls's only runner (from four entries) with Sam T-D already seemingly jocked up so with COD skipping the race I’d hate to think the yard won it and I wasn’t on!

A bad run on his seasonal debut at Ascot requires forgiving but he previously ran Défi Du Seuil (OR now 157) to 1½ lengths at level weights at Aintree. He’s maybe flattered by that and he’s changed stables a few times but whether that’s down to the horse or the owner’s whims, I don’t know.

Nicholls has too good a record in this race to make DB such a big price. I don’t imagine he’ll be anywhere near that price on the day.
 
Irish Roe only gets a couple of quiet mentions in the Weekender, which surprises me, although their headline tipster, Paul Kealy, says he's only opposing her 'reluctantly' on the grounds that she had a hard race last time and might not have had sufficient recovery time. It's a worry I share but was a risk worth taking at 20/1 and 16/1 at the time, with a view to laying off.

As sunybay says, 4/1 should be closer to her true price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've taken a little sickness insurance on Divin Bere at 40/1.

He's now Nicholls's only runner (from four entries) with Sam T-D already seemingly jocked up so with COD skipping the race I’d hate to think the yard won it and I wasn’t on!

A bad run on his seasonal debut at Ascot requires forgiving but he previously ran Défi Du Seuil (OR now 157) to 1½ lengths at level weights at Aintree. He’s maybe flattered by that and he’s changed stables a few times but whether that’s down to the horse or the owner’s whims, I don’t know.

Nicholls has too good a record in this race to make DB such a big price. I don’t imagine he’ll be anywhere near that price on the day.
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I'd be seriously worried about the rating of Defi Du Seuil DO.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've taken a little sickness insurance on Divin Bere at 40/1.

He's now Nicholls's only runner (from four entries) with Sam T-D already seemingly jocked up so with COD skipping the race I’d hate to think the yard won it and I wasn’t on!

A bad run on his seasonal debut at Ascot requires forgiving but he previously ran Défi Du Seuil (OR now 157) to 1½ lengths at level weights at Aintree. He’s maybe flattered by that and he’s changed stables a few times but whether that’s down to the horse or the owner’s whims, I don’t know.

Nicholls has too good a record in this race to make DB such a big price. I don’t imagine he’ll be anywhere near that price on the day.
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I should also maybe add that the owner-trainer-jockey combo won the £100k 3m handicap hurdle at Sandown last weekend.



tiggers1972 said:
I'd be seriously worried about the rating of Defi Du Seuil DO.
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I don’t think there was too much to argue about its accuracy last season, trigger. The third and fifth in the Triumph were first and second at Punchestown. The fifth and sixth at Aintree, beaten 25 and 30 lengths, were second and first respectively in handicaps last weekend off not dissimilar marks. DDS just hasn’t sparked this season but neither has the trainer.
 
Kalashnikov for me. He went slightly wrong at Sandown in the Tolworth, but he lost a shoe as a result of an overreach - could be a few pounds well in. Anyway, I've followed the horse since early November, seeing him trounce a big field by ten lengths at Wetherby. Trainer Amy Murphy seems to be in rude form at the moment, too.
 
Fair shout that Len wasn't aware of the losing a shoe incident so cheers for that.

It must have been a day for savers Des but I've plumped for Lough Derg Spirit generally a 14/1 shot but I've used a price boost with laddies to get 16's which I think will look more than fair on the day.

Lightly raced and some bits and pieces of his form could make him look well handicapped. Held a comfortable victory over Coup de pinceau last term who won up at Mussleburgh at the weekend and is now rated 135 only 3lbs lower than LDS is now. Won the supreme novice trial up at Musselburgh himself last season with a decent victory over Peter the Mayo man receiving 3lb and PMM was rated 142. The figure I've got for this race points to him being well handicapped as does the third horse home on that occasion not being disgraced in Gr1 company at Aintree.

First time up this season ran a decent 2nd in the Elite hurdle where he did the donkey work and in fairness with hindsight I think they'd have set a stronger pace as seemingly well beaten turning for home getting outpaced stayed on well again past Flying Tiger to nab second spot. That actually ties in quite closely with the form of Irish roe. LDS beat him 1.75 lengths receiving 4lb, IR beat him 8L receiving 12lb and LDS has to concede 4lbs to IR here. Its very much same sort of ball park. Flying tiger ran well enough in the Fighting fifth in between these runs to suggest he still will have a bit to play with come Cheltenham in the spring. Close enough to Irving off levels and far enough in front of 2 horses who finished 1-2 in a race next time out to give the form lines through him a solid look.

I also like the run style of being handy when it comes to the Betfair Hurdle quite often horses on the front end stack them up and kick when turning for home. Its a lesson that was expensive in the learning backing hold up types in races that ended up being slowly run. The approach to the race which was completely intentional as I recall Henderson saying after the Elite that he'd put him away now until the Betfair (looking likely he uttered a truthful word :o ) strikes me as he knows the horse has a bit up its sleeve and has protected his mark for the big day. I actually think this is his best chance of the 5 runners he has at this point despite him seemingly favouring Kayf Grace and Jenkins although I still have my suspicions that the latter will not run even though his exchange price is tight and honest Henderson is suggesting he will.

So that's my saver for the race and I'll probably have a decent attempt at the forecast if the prices hold up until 365 allow the bet.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Irish Roe only gets a couple of quiet mentions in the Weekender, which surprises me, although their headline tipster, Paul Kealy, says he's only opposing her 'reluctantly' on the grounds that she had a hard race last time and might not have had sufficient recovery time. It's a worry I share but was a risk worth taking at 20/1 and 16/1 at the time, with a view to laying off.

As sunybay says, 4/1 should be closer to her true price.
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That's not really a concern I share although always respectful of Kealy's views but she took in 3 races in a month prior to Christmas and in my view improved each time. Touch wood but she appears to be one who takes her racing well. She travelled well within herself for most of the race and closed the gap fairly easily but failed to go past although the race was run at a good pace it didn't appear to be a slog or that she had raced hard from a long way out.
 
Lalor standing his ground means I'm at least getting a run for My money.

Outside of that, having quit my job (long story, start a new one next week) I've got some welcome time on my hands to have a look at the field and see any value.

Divin Bere mentioned above is one I have scribbled down, but will proper look into it.

Hopefully I won't be able to get away from Lalor or Kayf Grace that I've already invested in. I'd also be interested in Irish Roe, you just have to wonder how much has been taken out of the horse after a hard race against Maria's Benefit only a couple of weeks ago.
 
Knocknanuss hopefully.
ML Winters won a p2p and Bumper with him before selling him.
WPM was dead keen for him but the horse was unsound at Cheltenham January sales that year.
Dam is from the family of Dato Star so ease in ground will help him.
A big ask on what he has done but he has an engine for sure.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Irish Roe going blue this evening and maybe on the verge of taking over as favourite?
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Unibet still showing 14/1 on oddschecker, which is way bigger than anyone else. Don't have an account myself, so not sure it's actually available if you went to place the bet.

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It's not mate been showing that for days go on there site 9/1 SB the same regular silliness.
 
It's not. I checked.

(You don't need to have an account. Just click on the price and once the page loads give it a wee minute to load the betslip. The up-to-date price will appear there. It's 9/1.
 
Least interested I’ve been in this race for years, so I’ve been happy to follow others in on Robin Roe.

Has to have a chance with that much apparently in-hand, in a distinctly average-looking renewal, ans it might just be one of those races where you try too hard to overlook the obvious one.
 
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Hopefully Lalor gets the nod to run, be great to see her win after what's happened recently.

I'm not sure the ground will be heavy, so expecting Waterlord to be declared as opposed McCains other runner.
 
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I was all prepared to join the Irish Roe fan club in this but the more I look at Jenkins the more I think he can overcome the 11st 9lb and take this.

He traveled so powerfully at Ascot over just short of 2m4f and yet was impressive in managing to pull away again at the end having been at the front the whole way. Watching back replays of his two Newbury wins he looks so strong at the finish and really does seem to appreciate the long straight here.

He should have no problem going the pace dropping back to 2m and on the evidence of last time out and those C&D wins I can see him keeping on as well as anything at the death.

I appreciate I'm relying on the headgear having the desired effect for the third time but at the 11/1 I took this morning I'm prepared to take the chance. I'll probably go in again once the enhanced place terms are out there - at a likely shorter price.
 
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I like Spiritofthegames for this at 25/1. It ticks all the trend boxes and thought it ran really well behind William Henry last time out. Heavy ground probably key though with its stamina so probably done my dough.
 
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