Brexit

Brexit, Stay or Leave.

  • Stay

    Votes: 28 59.6%

  • Leave

    Votes: 19 40.4%
  • Total voters
    47
birdsnest said:
Something's moving. Think UK and DE are talking to arrange something beneficial to both sides. Germany really doesn't want to lose its good UK relationship. The war is long over. DE is unwilling to be so dominant on the continent and UK probably won't like it either., alas. Germany really could be UK friend now.

Was mentioned on here that Scotland could remain in single market and maintain presence in GB on separation. Problem for UK is remaining in a single market maintains free movement which seems the overwhelming issue.

Euro countries are unlikely to leave the EU with a free vote.
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Correct. Merkels comments today.
 
clivex said:
they cannot say how they are going to negotiate the exit because in the first instance they clearly won't be doing so. I have no doubt that boris has ideas as to how he might handle things if he gets the leadership but it's a big if.

if it's Teresa may then the leave team are powerless.
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What happened to all your certainty?

Johnson and Gove are MIA on the very day that the six EU Foreign Ministers are telling us to get our fingers out our holes, and crack-on with the process of getting ourselves to fu*ck. Where is their customary bombast for the cameras? Even frog-face is absent, and he never misses an opportunity to foul our airwaves. Could it be that they are all cowering in a corner somewhere, aghast at what they have done, knowing that their bluff has now been called. Fair chance, I'd say.

It takes Merkel's intervention to calm things down. You couldn't make it up.
 
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What are you talking about? The campaign is over . They don't need to be in front of the cameras saying this will happen or that. They don't even know if they will have any say at all so they would look ridiculous
 
icebreaker said:
I really sense a kind of semi-organised movement/operation/campaign being gathered to force a second referendum.
There does seem to be a methodical effort at work to condition the public into accepting another vote on the issue. I see it across all the media -- interviewing distressed Remainers and "desolate" europeans resident in the UK, and I see it in the hints being dropped by some members of parliament. Maybe I'm imagining ...............
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If there is a second referendum I will be on the first plane out of this country as it will end in violence on the streets.

You only have to look at the results on a map to know that the majority of this country want out. Yes the vote was close but it was a clear indication of the two tiered economy in England - London and to a lesser extent the smaller cities and the rest. The economy isn't working for most and that is the heart of the problem here.

As for the economic damage. Well as far as I can see every central bank in the world has been actively trying to devalue their currency and the British people just did it for the BOE. That alone will be a major boost to all exporters and should lessen the load of these likely tariffs which won't be seen for the foreseeable future. Yes there will be pain in the near term in the stock markets but most of that is now owned by the wealthy who have benefited from the biggest theft in history from the middle class over the last 8 years via QE.
As for interest rates they are likely to fall further in this country not rise. This isn't the case in Europe and hence why they were so desperate for this vote not to go this way. There again will be questions on the failing states and this will again lead to pressure on their sovereign debt.

Ultimately time will tell whether this was a good thing or a bad thing.
 
I would also add that just as with my mate I met today, many really have little confidence in the eu but voted remain (just) because they are emotionally risk adverse

admits ts it himself.
 
clivex said:
What are you talking about? The campaign is over . They don't need to be in front of the cameras saying this will happen or that. They don't even know if they will have any say at all so they would look ridiculous
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What a load of bollocks.
 
SP Only said:
If there is a second referendum I will be on the first plane out of this country as it will end in violence on the streets.

You only have to look at the results on a map to know that the majority of this country want out. Yes the vote was close but it was a clear indication of the two tiered economy in England - London and to a lesser extent the smaller cities and the rest. The economy isn't working for most and that is the heart of the problem here.

As for the economic damage. Well as far as I can see every central bank in the world has been actively trying to devalue their currency and the British people just did it for the BOE. That alone will be a major boost to all exporters and should lessen the load of these likely tariffs which won't be seen for the foreseeable future. Yes there will be pain in the near term in the stock markets but most of that is now owned by the wealthy who have benefited from the biggest theft in history from the middle class over the last 8 years via QE.
As for interest rates they are likely to fall further in this country not rise. This isn't the case in Europe and hence why they were so desperate for this vote not to go this way. There again will be questions on the failing states and this will again lead to pressure on their sovereign debt.

Ultimately time will tell whether this was a good thing or a bad thing.
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Excellent post !

:thumbsup:
 
clivex said:
Why don't you just wait and see. . What's the problem ?
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Because I never bought the theory that the EU was ever bad for us, and because I think it is ready to effect meaningful change anyway.

Because the UK that I believed in - the fair, tolerant, trustworthy and inclusive, country that (generally) set a good example to all - no longer exists.

You can keep the new country you have created, with my best-wishes that it works for you. But as long as Nick-Nack can secure ongoing EU membership, I would rather take my chances in an independent Scotland. That wont be without it's aggravation either, but at least I'd be living in a country that wasn't afraid of it's own shadow.
 
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Grasshopper said:
But as long as Nick-Nack can secure ongoing EU membership, I would rather take my chances in an independent Scotland.
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I understand that an application from Scotland to join the EU would be as unwelcomed by many states as is the application from Turkey. I understand that Spain for one is dead set against such an application and would veto it.
An independent Scotland cut out from the EU, but also cut adrift from the rest of Britain without any Barnett formula billions in subsidy and a low oil price.
Best of luck with that project, and I really do hope things work out for you all if you go Independent. But I fear for your standard of living.
 
so a country has to belong to the we to prove its tolerance? Bloody facist Norway and Iceland eh
 
As unwelcome as Turkey, you say?

You're an intelligent guy, Ice. Read your own words and ask yourself if you really believe that.

Spain is a potential problem due to the Catalan issue, I concede. My position is clear - without the EU guarantee, I likely could not vote for an independent Scotland, and would be forced to make the best of it, whilst putting all my efforts into a plan to GTF out of Dodge at the earliest opportunity.

The Armageddon scenario for me is that Scotland vote for Indy in the absence of an EU guarantee - a risk that is all too real. Whatever happens, Scotland will be an independent country in three years time - it's just a matter of how much pain it has to endure, once that happens.

But don't be under any illusions - it will happen. It is basically now just as irreversible as the decision on Friday morning. The UK is (or very soon will be) finished as a nation in its current guise.
 
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Clive, me old fruit....fu*ck off until you are prepared to engage in a productive manner like Ice does.

#tolerant
 
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"NewK". Oh I do like that. Has a great "ring" to it. Brilliant ! :)

Grasshopper said:
The Armageddon scenario for me is that Scotland vote for Indy in the absence of an EU guarantee - a risk that is all too real.
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Yes, that's exactly what I was trying to say, but didn't express myself coherently. Such a scenario were it to come about would be bad, very bad, IMO of course.
 
Grasshopper said:
Spain is a potential problem due to the Catalan issue, I concede.
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Not just Spain. Italy and Belgium both have smaller seperatist movements themselves.
In fairness its a condition of new entrants that they have to adopt the Euro so that would remove the issue of sterling which haunted the previous debate.
Also of course Salmond's maths from the Indy ref has been found wanting and with Saudi Arabia pumping away like Boris or Clive (delete as applicable) there seems little prospect of the great petro dollar coming to the rescue. The longer term prognosis for oil is bad too. Rarely a week goes by now without some country somewhere announcing that they've completed some transfer to sustainable.
The one advantage Scotland does have is a big public sector it can begin to cut back on
 
If London loses its Financial Services passport* - or has it compromised in any way - then Edinburgh can potentially take advantage. Also, Scotland has an evolving renewables industry, and if the twats would cease with their wind obsession, and invest in wave/tidal, then that could eventually be a highly lucrative source of revenue (as would fracking, if there wasn't such a holier-than-thou attitude to it).

Otherwise, yes - it will be ugly for a goodly while.

Belgium and Italy are, I think, an irrelvance in this context. Their seperatist entities are tiny in comparison, and much less vocal/influential, than the Basque movement.

Whatever happens, it is all degrees of bad - regardless of which side of Hadrian's Wall you sit. And all of it was avoidable, which is the real tragedy.

* This is possible, rather than probable, before Clive does his fu*cking dinger.
 
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Grasshopper said:
But as long as Nick-Nack can secure ongoing EU membership, I would rather take my chances in an independent Scotland.
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I have to say, Grass, that I think the world has gone mad.
What I gather from your quote above is that the Scots should vote to leave one Union principally in order to join another union ............. and all in the name of independence? Have I got that right?
Quare times we live in, for sure.
 
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We have spent much of the thread discussing "democracy", Ice. Clearly, an EU exit is undemocratic, if viewed through the Scottish lens.

The intent is not to 'join' the EU - the intent is not to leave it in the first place. Whilst the practical mechanics of process, probably do require a Leave/Join approach, it's basically semantics, as far as I'm concerned.

I have long defended the Union that is the United Kingdom, and viewed the desire for Scottish independence as distasteful, because I've always viewed it as petty parochialsm, drive by a narrow-mindset - the anti-English element being childish and hateful in equal measure. Besides, why be part of something small, when you can be part of something grander, right? For me, the Leave vote represents that same kind of insular thinking.

Wanting out of a UK that is no longer aligned to the EU, is consistent with my approach to the Scottish Indyref question.

But it's not about independence. It's about remaining in the EU by whichever mechanism best facilitates that outcome. I simply don't view the EU as the ogre that has been described by yourself, Clive and others throughout this thread - possibly because I've always been happy to define myself as European.....and British....and Scottish. These definitions are/were wholly-interchangable as far as I was comcerned, and represented no conflict for me.

I can no longer say that about being British, because a value-system which moves us out of Europe, is not something I can buy into on any level.
 
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Grasshopper said:
The intent is not to 'join' the EU - the intent is not to leave it in the first place. Whilst the practical mechanics of process, probably do require a Leave/Join approach, it's basically semantics, as far as I'm concerned.
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Fair enough.
Just be careful what you wish for; I still hold that a subordination to a Brussels based authority isn't a panacea for every economic and political challenge that an independent Scotland might face.
 
I concede that, Ice, but neither is being tethered to a hard-right UK government, which has next to no interest in anything that happens north of the Watford Gap.

As I said - it's all degrees of unneccessary bad, as far as I'm concerned.
 
Mr Bogoff's point might be more convincing if he'd made it before the result was known. Even then I wouldn't agree with him, because referendums favour the status quo and it's already much harder to bring about change by this means than by a vote in parliament.

I don't think the legitimacy of the result should be questioned in any case, because it reflects what I believe has always been the main tendency in the British attitude to Europe. It's best to acknowledge it and find a way to move on that we all can live with.

I've been reminded by the way of the discussion we had on this thread, starting around post #8 or so:

http://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?18229-Pussy-Riot&highlight=Europe
 
Well if it reflects what you believe, then I don't see how anyone could possibly question it, you are after all the final word on this aren't you? - what an arrogant attitude. Just read that again

"I don't think the legitimacy of the result should be questioned in any case, because it reflects what I believe"

Just who the **** do you think you are? You're a public servant, paid to serve, you are not the judge and jury in this, and if you seriously base your views around Clive, then god help you
 
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