Brexit

[Grasshopper]

Does Scotland believe that it would be an economically viable entity without Barnett funding from the UK and without any compensatory support from the EU in the long interregnum between Independence and membership of the EU?

You are asking the wrong question, Ice.

The question you should be asking, is whether Scots think the UK outside the EU is a viable entity.

My belief is that the majority of Scots will answer No to that question. There are other factors outside the strict economic argument that will play lnto the decision too - not least the fact that Scotland's voice has once again been drowned-out by the English one. That in itself hasn't been a major issue to-date, as it has often been for the greater good, but that clearly does not apply in the current dynamic.

I strongly believe that the UK is finished, because - right or wrong - the majority of Scots would now rather sink (if that is our ultimate fate) under our own steam, than tied to an English anchor.

It's my honest belief that only a reversal of the EU vote can save the UK now, and that seems highly unlikely.

On a partially-related topic, I see Corbyn has resorted to tried-and-tested Stalinist tactic of dismissing one of the few useful individuals in his Cabinet.

The Labour Party is finished, the Tory party will splinter, the Union will end, and the Irish peace process has been compromised. There's been better weeks.

 

[Grasshopper]

Not a chance, mate. You know how convoluted these bureaucratic machinations are. (Hell, it will take the UK 2 years minimum just to leave it).

1st AUGUST 1961 -- Britain Applies To Join The EEC

1st January 1973 -- Britain Joins The EEC

I suspect you are right, though there has been no precedent to this, so not entirely impossible.

I'm rather hoping that the EU waves us right in, in a gigantic "Fu*ck you" to the English.

 

[icebreaker]

But I don't see why it can't or wouldn't be fast-tracked.

Just changing to a new currency alone takes enormous preparation time in both planning and practical application.

 

[Grasshopper]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-humiliated-Brussels-says-No-s-not-works.html

Ah.....it's a Mail story with no-one directly quoted. Maybe I'll remain optimistic for a wee while longer! :lol:

 

[Grasshopper]

Just changing to a new currency alone takes enormous preparation time in both planning and practical application.

Not true, Ice. All Scottish financial institutions have Euro-equivalent systems. Clearly, it would take time and effort, but it is far from an insurmountable challenge......the skeleton is already there.

 

[icebreaker]

Not true, Ice. All Scottish financial institutions have Euro-equivalent systems.

It is a long, laborious step from that to a situation where the euro is the official currency.
(Irish banking, for instance, has a sterling-equivalent system; it means nothing. I -- an Irish resident -have a (small amount) Sterling denominated bank account with AIB).

 

[Marb]

Thoughts on the Labour turmoil?
I guess Jeremy Corbyn may have served some sort of purpose even if he goes now..... solidifying the grass roots and bringing them new members.

However, the problem for Labour (New or Old) in general is this... the time to actually build your national share of the electorate, is something you don't just start doing when backed into a major corner in opposition.
The time to win people over is when you are governing, through showing people you are governing well or at least trying to.

How else do you think David Cameron won 331 seats last year on the back of austerity? Because despite all the economic pressure, people believed he was governing well enough to give him more of their support.

 

[icebreaker]

Of course, there already exists an alternative currency solution for Scotland that would at the very least sidestep all the associated hassle of changing to euro; a currency that is tradable and usuable ......................................... SCOTCOIN !!!! :lol:

Before any sniggering at the back of class, Scotcoin is up 19% in value on the month -- more than can be said for Sterling or euro
Downside is that even with so, it is still worth only 0.0016 USD.

https://coinmarketcap.com/assets/scotcoin/

 

[Grasshopper]

It is a long, laborious step from that to a situation where the euro is the official currency.
(Irish banking, for instance, has a sterling-equivalent system; it means nothing. I -- an Irish resident -have a (small amount) Sterling denominated bank account with AIB).

Come on, Ice.....how hard can it be if the Irish managed it?

 

[Warbler]

The question you should be asking, is whether Scots think the UK outside the EU is a viable entity.

It's ironic isn't it given how not so long ago Salmond was pointing to countries like Norway and Iceland as his role models

My belief is that the majority of Scots will answer No to that question. There are other factors outside the strict economic argument that will play lnto the decision too - not least the fact that Scotland's voice has once again been drowned-out by the English one.

Do you expect the ultimately much bigger circus of Europe to listen though? Lets be honest, the EU has to balance many more conflicting interests than the UK, and its not as if they aren't without some incredibly pressing priorities of their own. Sturgeon has already volunteered to help out with the refugee crisis hasn't she, so I expect that Scotland will get some brownie points for picking up the slack that the likes of Hungary are refusing to take, but the EU is also still having to deal with Greece as well as no end of other issues.

I feel sorry for them in so much as Cameron's dropped this totally unnecessary burden on them predominantly because he thought it was a good way of managing his own political problems, but ultimately he's committed a howlingly bad piece of political judgement that consigns him to be amongst the very worst prime ministers this country has ever had

 

[icebreaker]

Come on, Ice.....how hard can it be if the Irish managed it?

Racist Hibernophobe !

Prior to its intro back in 2002, the euro was preceded by three years of a public information campaign in Ireland at quite considerable cost.
Of course, the implementation of the euro in 2002 as official currency followed the establishment of the euro itself way back further with the Maastricht Treaty of 1992. So you could say that it took ten years to bring the euro project to fruition.

 

[icebreaker]

I also think, Grass, that yourself and Grey are both overlooking the necessary criteria which must be met before a country is allowed to join the euro. Criteria like meeting targets of government debt, government deficit, exchange-rate stability, long-term interest rates. All of this takes time -- a lot of it.

 

[reet hard]

You are asking the wrong question, Ice.

The question you should be asking, is whether Scots think the UK outside the EU is a viable entity.

My belief is that the majority of Scots will answer No to that question. There are other factors outside the strict economic argument that will play lnto the decision too - not least the fact that Scotland's voice has once again been drowned-out by the English one. That in itself hasn't been a major issue to-date, as it has often been for the greater good, but that clearly does not apply in the current dynamic.

I strongly believe that the UK is finished, because - right or wrong - the majority of Scots would now rather sink (if that is our ultimate fate) under our own steam, than tied to an English anchor.

It's my honest belief that only a reversal of the EU vote can save the UK now, and that seems highly unlikely.

On a partially-related topic, I see Corbyn has resorted to tried-and-tested Stalinist tactic of dismissing one of the few useful individuals in his Cabinet.

The Labour Party is finished, the Tory party will splinter, the Union will end, and the Irish peace process has been compromised. There's been better weeks.

There's also the question whether Scots will think themselves a viable proposition outside the UK, and - despite your pessimistic ranting, and that your elected leader seems hell-bent on dissolution at any cost - that's yet to be tested at the ballot box.

 

[icebreaker]

so I expect that Scotland will get some brownie points

Respectfully, I think that the big elephant in the room is that Spain with its Catalan and Basque issues, Belgium with its Wallooon-atics, will severly hamper -- if not completely refuse -- any Scottish post-Independence bid for EU membership. The application is stymied before it is even made. This along with the undoubted delay in euro adoption makes voting Independence a dangerously perilous play to make. Scotland could well end up as a member of ................ absolutely SFA.

 

[Grasshopper]

I know all this, Ice.....and was, of course, only pulling your leg. I do think you are over-playing the complexity to an extent, though.

If there is a desire on the part of the EU to allow Scotland ready membership (whatever their motivation for doing so), it will presumably come with some degree of 'We will look the other way whilst you sort your sh*it out'. If not, then the standard conditions will apply. It's a choice between difficult and very difficult.

As it is, I don't hold out much hope that the former will apply, but that doesn't mean we should not at least investigate the possibility.

Edit: The Basque/Catalan considerations self-evidently only apply to a pre-Independence arrangement. Once Scotland is fully Independent, these concerns are no longer valid.

 

[Grasshopper]

There's also the question whether Scots will think themselves a viable proposition outside the UK, and - despite your pessimistic ranting, and that your elected leader seems hell-bent on dissolution at any cost - that's yet to be tested at the ballot box.

Please show me where I have "ranted", Reet.

I'm under no illusions. As I have repeatedly-stated, the choices are all varying degrees of badness.

 

[Grasshopper]

For the sake of balance, I should add this.

I acknowledge that Scotland - should it choose independence, and alignment (either immediate or in the future) with the EU over the UK - could indeed find itself joining a club that is potentially on the verge of self-immolation, as our resident nutjob has suggested. I am very aware that this a risk, and that this eventuality should be considered very soberly.

I do, however, fear we may be past the point, where this aspect is given the consideration that it merits.

 

[Warbler]

There's also the question whether Scots will think themselves a viable proposition outside the UK, and - despite your pessimistic ranting, and that your elected leader seems hell-bent on dissolution at any cost - that's yet to be tested at the ballot box.

Well the Scottish economy is very entwined with England's, and they'll certainly end up getting the rough end of any punitive sanctions they're forced into carrying by the EU (having said that, there will always be a few Bravehearts who won't mind). I should say in support of Sturgeon (who I confess to having performed a 180 degree opinion change about) she's currently trying to salvage the situation rather than rip it down. She seems to think that a provision exists whereby she can veto the UK decision (God knows where), but lets assume she's been faithfully reported and that there is some area she can act on. In truth, I'd expect a majority of MP's will privately be thanking her if she's found a technicality that allows the Scots to save the English.

Again, it's ironic, didn't Labour lose the election because the Tories pedalled some idea that the SNP would be Ed Miliband's back seat drivers and that they wouldn't?.

 

[icebreaker]

Okay, front-up which one of you has been engaged in trying to corner the Scotcoin market in the past hour! :lol:
(Up to 26% monthly increase from 19% since post # 933). LOL.

 

[reet hard]

Please show me where I have "ranted", Reet.

How long have you got?

 

[Grasshopper]

That is not an answer. Pony-up or pipe-down please.

 

[Warbler]

One of the more controversial allegations made on this thread is that the English are "stupid". Now I'm firmly of the belief that the GCSE has a lot to answer for, but this southerner is going viral at the moment as she provides a salutary lesson in the perils of democracy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Li7wNTkL-dY

 

[Grey]

I also think, Grass, that yourself and Grey are both overlooking the necessary criteria which must be met before a country is allowed to join the euro. Criteria like meeting targets of government debt, government deficit, exchange-rate stability, long-term interest rates. All of this takes time -- a lot of it.

That's a fair point, there would have to be a transition period before joining the euro. But membership of the EU could go ahead well before that.

Respectfully, I think that the big elephant in the room is that Spain with its Catalan and Basque issues, Belgium with its Wallooon-atics, will severly hamper -- if not completely refuse -- any Scottish post-Independence bid for EU membership. The application is stymied before it is even made. This along with the undoubted delay in euro adoption makes voting Independence a dangerously perilous play to make. Scotland could well end up as a member of ................ absolutely SFA.

I don't get this point at all. There was a reluctance by Spain and Belgium to facilitate Scottish separatism while the UK was still in the EU but we now have a totally different situation. The knock-on effect on Cataloons and Flems doesn't apply in the new scenario.


Regarding that Mail article you linked to, it seems to me what that advisory note is saying is that Scotland could not retain EU membership while still being part of the UK. We all know that.

 

[Grasshopper]

Straw poll.

Has anyone here who voted Leave, had any cause to regret their decision, given the fallout. Equally, is there anyone who voted Remain, who is now inclined to the other option, given the EU seems destined to play hard-ball on negotiations?

I'm expecting two big-fat zero's as the final tally, but figured I'd ask the question anyway.

 

[icebreaker]

I don't get this point at all. There was a reluctance by Spain and Belgium to facilitate Scottish separatism while the UK was still in the EU but we now have a totally different situation. The knock-on effect on Cataloons and Flems doesn't apply in the new scenario.

Spain and to a lesser degree Belgium would fear an independent Scotland becoming a member of EU because such would give further encouragement to the pursuit of independence by their own restive "want-away" provinces. Catalans would look at such a scenario as "lets go for independence really hard now because from there it's only a short hop to full membership of EU and a fully patched equal of the hated Spain". First we go for an independence referendum; the day after we go for membership.
First we take Manhattan; then we take Berlin.