Champion Hurdle 2013

As has been mentioned on this thread before, everyone knows the best way of getting Hurricane Fly beaten is by setting a strong pace.....they can't be crawling like they so often do over in Ireland.
 
SlimChance said:
I wish EC1 would leave the forum... as soon as he gives his opinion on this :whistle:
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:lol:

these are the times of the Gold Trophys i've got

year/start to 3rd hurdle/overall time/%

2013. 89.0/250.70/ 35.5%
2012. 82.7/232.00/ 35.6%
2011. 82.3/232.96/ 35.3%
2010. 83.0/229.57/ 36.2%

As a bit of a reference..but this is an exceptional performance.

Make A Stand in 1997

1997. 79.6/238.4/ 33.3%

looking at the times I don't think any of them are pedestrian...clearly 2010 was the slowest....even though the commentaries from 2013 & 2012 seem to suggest a really slow pace..which in reality they aren't

I doubt any of them can be considered jog and sprint sorts of races..I doubt many horses could run like Make A Stand who set, what you have to say, would be hard fractions for any horse to match
 
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Just as a comparison..these are the % for the time between the 1st hurdle and 4th hurdles..slightly further than the start to the 3rd..hence overall higher %'s

2013 = 37.5%
2012 = 37.7%
2011 = 41.2%
2010 = 40.9%

1997 = 38.7%

they are probably more telling as you avoid the start muddle..Make A stand now doesn't look as fast as before..but strangely the latest 2 runnings don't look as slow as the commentator says.

I think that when the race starts..if they aren't going hell for leather to the first bend in front of the stand..it tricks the mind into assuming a slow pace..Make A Stand ran very fast at the start and onto the far side..the commentator made his mind up it was a fast pace..purely on that bit of the race imo.

I don't know the distance between the points i've measured but if measured i'll bet that about 37/38% works out at even pace if calculating the time per furlong for the whole race and compared it with the split time per furlong
 
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Tanlic said:
Dodging bullets form in that race surely isn't worth a bucket of manure. Coutryside Flame couldn't put one foot in front of the other in what was absolutely desperate ground, Cinders and Ashes has been totally out of form and not a shadow of the horse he was when winning the Supreme leaving Raya Star to plod on onto 2nd and that is all he did. Considering

It took Dodging Bullets ages to pass two struggling horses that day and he'd be more like 20lbs behind MTOY

Can't see the Kingwell telling us much as not many will turn up and again it looks like crappy ground will be the name of the game
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Countrywide Flame (Triumph winner) beat Cinders and Ashes(Supreme winner) 12L in the Fighting Fifth on desperate ground - unsurprisingly imo as he was fit from the flat having finished 2nd in the Cesarewitch. Cinders and Ashes was entitled to come on for that run and finish a lot closer to Countrywide Flame in the Christmas Hurdle. Both have good form on desperate ground so I can't use that as an excuse.

Darlan was being talked of as a serious Champion Hurdle contender and even you were coming round to thinking he had a serious chance until his fatal fall. Had Darlan not fallen then it looked likely he would have won a few lengths from Rock On Ruby with Countrywide Flame about the same distance behind as he was in the Christmas Hurdle. I don't buy into this theory both CF and CAA were way below what they are capable of. I think that they were a little below there form with a possible improvement to come.

Both Raya Star and Darlan are and were on an upward curve improving with almost each race they ran. I had reservations about Darlan myself but the more I looked at it I changed my mind and considered him the real deal and think an O/R 166+ was fair and I had Raya Star 160+ - Dodging Bullets 158+ - Countrywide Flame 156+ & Cinders and Ashes 152+ - I would now have Countrywide Flame 160+ after the 32Red Hurdle.

If I'm right and they run there races then Raya Star should get to within 4 or 5L of Zarkander in the Kingwell with his 4lb pull at the weights. Then this would boost the form of Dodging Bullets. Dodging bullets beat River Maigue convincingly giving that horse 7lb - you have an ear in the Henderson Stable - How good is River Maigue considered in the pecking order of his Novice Hurdlers?
 
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Ardross said:
Somewhat surprising that Binocular is not super subbing for Grandouet as he did last year .

Either he is stunning them all at Seven Barrows with his homework and they don't want his price crashing or he is behind or not sparkling- I fear the latter.
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Binocular come under the same umbrella as Grandouet . If he run him on that ground against Zarkandar he's almost certain to have a hard race which could means he leaves his race at Wincanton. Those fly's on the wall don't lie and there was always the chance Grandouet wouldn't run minor injury or not.

Nicky could send a lazy mule out 100% fit without a run so it's no big deal.
 
swedish chef said:
Countrywide Flame (Triumph winner) beat Cinders and Ashes(Supreme winner) 12L in the Fighting Fifth on desperate ground - unsurprisingly imo as he was fit from the flat having finished 2nd in the Cesarewitch. Cinders and Ashes was entitled to come on for that run and finish a lot closer to Countrywide Flame in the Christmas Hurdle. Both have good form on desperate ground so I can't use that as an excuse. Well you should because John Quinn said it was the worst ground the horse had ever run on and he hated it and he's not a man for making things up or making exuses

Darlan was being talked of as a serious Champion Hurdle contender and even you were coming round to thinking he had a serious chance until his fatal fall. Had Darlan not fallen then it looked likely he would have won a few lengths from Rock On Ruby with Countrywide Flame about the same distance behind as he was in the Christmas Hurdle. I don't buy into this theory both CF and CAA were way below what they are capable of. I think that they were a little below there form with a possible improvement to come. John stated before the race he wasn't at his best and said whatever he did he would improve on as he was a spring horse. If he is correct then it would fall into place that Rock on Ruby may also have been below his best

Both Raya Star and Darlan are and were on an upward curve improving with almost each race they ran. I had reservations about Darlan myself but the more I looked at it I changed my mind and considered him the real deal and think an O/R 166+ was fair and I had Raya Star 160+ - Dodging Bullets 158+ - Countrywide Flame 156+ & Cinders and Ashes 152+ - I would now have Countrywide Flame 160+ after the 32Red Hurdle.

If I'm right and they run there races then Raya Star should get to within 4 or 5L of Zarkander in the Kingwell with his 4lb pull at the weights. Then this would boost the form of Dodging Bullets. Dodging bullets beat River Maigue convincingly giving that horse 7lb - you have an ear in the Henderson Stable - How good is River Maigue considered in the pecking order of his Novice Hurdlers?
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First of when Dodging Bullets beat him he'd be 10 canters short of a gallop. Take him out of the equation for that reason and you have Dodging Bullets beating Court Minstrel by 3 length with the talented but limited Duke Of Navan back in 4th. Not bad form but a long way short of what it takes to win a Supreme Hurdle.

Considering Nicky had 3 of his best prospects on the sick list who have yet to jump a hurdle it's hard to say where anything figures in the full pecking list bar MTO

River Maigue works brilliantly at home stands out like a sore thumb on the gallops and you'd back him to win the champion Hurdle if home performances won races. Unfortunately it doesn't and it also makes him difficult to rate and his biggest problem is he won't settle.

He's certainly a very good horse and a fast gallop may help him but he is obviously better with plenty cut so the odds are he's going to need to have everything go his way at Cheltenham to win and that's unlikely. What is likley is he will beat himself unless Barry can get him to switch off.

That of course will be totally irrelevant if Nicky gets his own way and MTOY runs. Unfortunately AP and JP will make the decision and if they decide two chances are better than one it will go the wrong way for Nicky........
 
Tanlic said:
First of when Dodging Bullets beat him he'd be 10 canters short of a gallop. Take him out of the equation for that reason and you have Dodging Bullets beating Court Minstrel by 3 length with the talented but limited Duke Of Navan back in 4th. Not bad form but a long way short of what it takes to win a Supreme Hurdle

We can all find examples of horses that make the form look bad for a horse in an individual race, eg.., My Tent Or Yours beat Population a very comfortable 7L giving him 10lb on his penultimate start yet Population was tailed off and pulled up behind Court Minstrel. On that argument you could say Court Minstrel is better than My Tent Or Yours but we know that's unlikely. Duke Of Navan beat Any Given Day (O/R 155 my rating 150) 2/1/2L yesterday off level weights again boosting the form of Dodging Bullets
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“I would have thought the obvious route was the Supreme,” Henderson told Racing UK. “Novices have won the Champion Hurdle before. I think we will take the recognised path and I would have thought that if he was that good he can win the Champion Hurdle some other day.”
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This quote should give me a warm glow, but - sad to say - you actually can't tell with these connections.

:(
 
He's going to be bombarded with this question until the horse is not supplemented. I'd ignore quotes.
 

Watched that interview and he actual spent most of it ignoring the direct question and instead waffling on about Binocular.

The man is a complete hypocrite - happy on the one hand for Captain Conan to steer clear of Simonsig but equally happy for JP to waste one winning opportunity by running My Tent Or Yours against Jezki.
 
treetangle said:
Watched that interview and he actual spent most of it ignoring the direct question and instead waffling on about Binocular.

The man is a complete hypocrite - happy on the one hand for Captain Conan to steer clear of Simonsig but equally happy for JP to waste one winning opportunity by running My Tent Or Yours against Jezki.
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That's a very good point.
 
Tanlic said:
Dodging bullets form in that race surely isn't worth a bucket of manure. Coutryside Flame couldn't put one foot in front of the other in what was absolutely desperate ground, Cinders and Ashes has been totally out of form and not a shadow of the horse he was when winning the Supreme leaving Raya Star to plod on onto 2nd and that is all he did. Considering

It took Dodging Bullets ages to pass two struggling horses that day and he'd be more like 20lbs behind MTOY

Can't see the Kingwell telling us much as not many will turn up and again it looks like crappy ground will be the name of the game
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Apart from Duke of Navan beating a 150+ Horse of level weights boosting the form of Dodging Bullets.
Today Tominator beat the 130 rated odds on Master Of The Game 3 1/2L yet Tominator couldn't live with Dodging Bullets in his previous race getting 4lbs and a 16L beating - both those performances confirm Dodging Bullets a mid to high o/r of 155 to 159 imo.
 
Euronymous said:
No Festival winners to see.
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That point I wouldn't argue as the Jetzki form looks rock solid and MTOY could be anything or hype I haven't made my mind up on him yet, but I said Dodging Bullets was the e/way value of the race at 14/1 and I see no reason to change my mind, he also has C/D form in the book and a lot of those he beat are backing up that opinion. Tominator, Duke Of Navan, Countrywide Flame and River Maigue. Although I believe River Maigue will struggle to give Far West 11lb tomorrow but hoping he can get close enough to give the form another boost.
 
Master Of the Game was a huge negative in the paddock according to David Cleary and didn't look good at all. He ran in the race as his appearance predicted he would

The question is can Dodging bullets win the Supreme Novices hurdle and the top and bottom of it is he doesn't stand much of a chance of doing so.

Dodging Bullets is a fully exposed 5 year old who ran 8 or 9 times on the flat which gave him a huge advantage over most juniors in the Triumph Hurdle but he failed to capitalize on that and had a second crack at Aintree and again failed to make the frame.

He wasn't beaten by Darlan he was annihilated and PN in desperation has decided a drop in class is required so he is sending him for the Supreme.

Considering River Maigue was unfancied when they met I'd fully expect him to reverse placings with Dodging bullet and he supposedly isn't even NH's 1st string though BG might argue with that if he happened to kick Far West into touch today.

WE all know PN is a great trainer and not just with chasers. The improvement he found in horses like Celestial halo Zarkandar and Al Ferof as hurdlers tells you he could do the same with Dodging Bullets but he's picked the wrong year IMO
 
Desert Orchid said:
Isn't it just weight for age?
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Yes but I have them both on similar ratings so the weight for age should be in Far Wests favour. If it were a h'cap i'd have them both running off the same weight. If River Maigue wins I'll hold up my hand and say I was wrong I wont be blaming supposed poor performances of other horses.
 
swedish chef said:
Yes but I have them both on similar ratings so the weight for age should be in Far Wests favour. If it were a h'cap i'd have them both running off the same weight. If River Maigue wins I'll hold up my hand and say I was wrong I wont be blaming supposed poor performances of other horses.
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Sorry, Chef, but I don't follow your logic. If you have them on the same mark there should be no advantage at today's weights. If it were a handicap you would expect FW to receive the weight allowance as he'd be seriously disadvantaged running off levels.

Whichever wins - all other things being equal - it will be simply that he's better.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sorry, Chef, but I don't follow your logic. If you have them on the same mark there should be no advantage at today's weights. If it were a handicap you would expect FW to receive the weight allowance as he'd be seriously disadvantaged running off levels.

Whichever wins - all other things being equal - it will be simply that he's better.
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it depends on whether Chef has add wfa to the ratings to start with..say you had a 2yo and an older horse running against each other..the 2yo had run a raw figure of 70 and so had the older horse..in a handicap the 2yo would be carrying a lot less due to wfa..but both horses have shown the same real level of form..2yo would be greatly favoured in that instance
 
Tanlic said:
Master Of the Game was a huge negative in the paddock according to David Cleary and didn't look good at all. He ran in the race as his appearance predicted he would

Agreed but on my figures Tominator was going into the race on 132 and Master Of The Game 130 so MOTG ran a few lbs below his form when you would have expected improvement but not enough below par to knock the form. He was sent off odds-on so they must of expected a decent run.

The question is can Dodging bullets win the Supreme Novices hurdle and the top and bottom of it is he doesn't stand much of a chance of doing so.

I think he has a better chance than most give him credit for as I think he is rated to be in the mix has form over C/D and possible improvement.

Dodging Bullets is a fully exposed 5 year old who ran 8 or 9 times on the flat which gave him a huge advantage over most juniors in the Triumph Hurdle but he failed to capitalize on that and had a second crack at Aintree and again failed to make the frame.

Even I accept many horses running at Aintree after Cheltenham are unlikely to show their form.

He wasn't beaten by Darlan he was annihilated and PN in desperation has decided a drop in class is required so he is sending him for the Supreme.

Darlan was entitled to quicken away from the field if you believe he was a serious Champion Hurdle contender. 7 1/4L at level weights does not constitute an annihilation in my book even if he was value for more you would expect a Champion Hurdle winner to be near a 10lbs+ better than a Supreme winner. As far as I was aware the Champion Hurdle was never his target he said at the beginning of the season D.B. would be contesting the top Novice Hurdles he put him in the Christmas Hurdle to see how good he was - good enough to contest a Supreme imo.

Considering River Maigue was unfancied when they met I'd fully expect him to reverse placings with Dodging bullet and he supposedly isn't even NH's 1st string though BG might argue with that if he happened to kick Far West into touch today.

I wouldn't argue that point - if River Maigue kicked Far West into touch today I would consider it an excellent performance - my ratings says he will struggle to beat him so I'm looking forward to the match

WE all know PN is a great trainer and not just with chasers. The improvement he found in horses like Celestial halo Zarkandar and Al Ferof as hurdlers tells you he could do the same with Dodging Bullets but he's picked the wrong year IMO
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Yes it looks a very good Supreme this year and can't wait to hear to the buzz of the crowd as the Festival kicks off with a fascinating race where all our questions will be answered. If D.B. doesn't finish in the first 3 I'll hold up my hands and say I was wrong.
 
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