Champion Hurdle 2013

rorydelargy said:
Bill Esdaile is the man who reported Frankel's retirement last April. Gobshoite.
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Have to say up to yesterday had never heard of him so just googled him.
He appears to have tweeted the Monksland and Grands Crus scenarios correctly as they happened. This is the follow up tweet he issued yesterday, obviously everyone can make their own minds up if they believe it

Bill Esdaile
Grandouet has been working very disappointingly recently and NJH has most likely 'run out of time' to get him ready for next Tuesday

James Knight
You have a horse that has been sighted ONCE since December 2011 and they have 'run out of time' to get him ready for the Festival ?

Bill Esdaile
since the setback - needs another 3 weeks apparently
 
Hezz! You be careful I have some very close friends who live in Cronulla one phone call and you're dust :lol:

Here's afew Negatives for you to think about.

a. He hasn't had a real test since he was beat in last years Champion Hurdle.

b. To win this years race he would have to be a better horse than he was in 2011

c. Ruby is hardly beaming with confidence. According to him his best chances of the week lies with Far West and Quevega.

D. You are asking Hurricane Fly to do something at 9 years of age horses like Bula, Persian War, Comedy Of Errors, Lanzarote, Gay Brief, Beech Road, Danoli and Hurricane Fly himself failed to do as an 8 year old and I'm the one who should be on the stage?

Common sense tells you unless he really is one of the greatest of all time he is very much up against it
 
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This is what I wrote a few days ago:

Champion Hurdle 3.20 (11-10)

Hurricane Fly 172 + (173+)
Grandouet 170 + (170+p)
Oscar Whisky 169 t
Zarkandar 169 +p
Rock On Ruby 165 + (174)
Binocular 163 ++ (172+)
Countrywide Flame 162 +

Has there ever been a cagier lead-up to this race?

Hurricane Fly has been strutting his stylish stuff this season but he’s been getting his races run to suit. He didn’t get it his own way when it mattered last year and I expect this year’s renewal to be no different. I’m swayed by the argument that he doesn’t truly stay a very fast run 2m.

I’m also convinced that Binocular is the Henderson stable’s second hope behind Grandouet. The word before his slightly disappointing Triumph performance was that he was a long way better than the previous year’s winner Soldatino and everything looked to be going to plan last year until injury intervened. He’s entitled to be stronger and maybe even better this season. Oscar Whisky looks like going for a different race but if they put him in to force a strong pace I’d be even more confident about Grandouet.

Zarkandar impressed first time up in the Elite but that was a handicap. It nevertheless suggested further improvement from last season and he probably wasn’t at peak fitness. His more recent win doesn’t amount to as much but it was an iffy race run at an iffy pace.

I’m more wary of Rock On Ruby than anything else. He won when it mattered last season, off a strong pace and the form is very solid. He looks like he has been trained for one day this season and if Grandouet fails to make the race my allegiances will switch to him. I think he’s a banker for first or second place.
 
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The worry with Rock On Ruby is that Darlan was travelling all over him when he came down, and you'd have to believe ROR was very unfit, or that Darlan was a superstar.
Neither makes sense, imo..
 
Tanlic, every one of your posts on Hurricane Fly are a perfect demonstration of 'The Fear'.

You have it coming to you. ;)
 
Honestly Reet if you were Harry Fry would you give two hoots about winning a £10,251 prize if it meant you had to be 100% fit when you were aiming for a £1/4 million prize a month down the line?

Different strokes for different folks. His attitude which he has made no secret of is there is one race and one race only he is aiming him for.

Think back to last season when he trained the horse under PN's name' He finished 2nd to Binocular on Boxing Day and wasn't seen again until CH day.

There is only one reason he even ran the horse at Donnie. Unlike last year he was held up by some really bad weather and he felt he had no option but give him a run to get him to where he wanted him.

It doesn't take a genius to work that Rock On Ruby was far from 100% when he ran at Donnie
 
Grasshopper said:
Tanlic, every one of your posts on Hurricane Fly are a perfect demonstration of 'The Fear'.

You have it coming to you. ;)
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I am afraid of Rock on Ruby but Hurricane Fly? Wouldn't have him on my mind for this the old crock of a thing:lol:

Tell you what Grassy..........Find me one experienced pundit who tips him up for the race and I'll find you 5 that say he wont win.

Had a thought Grassy so I came back in to edit this.

Now that Grandouet can be backed at around 9/1 wouldn't that make him a fantastic back to lay for the race even if he doesn't win?

He is by far the best traveler in the race and when they jump the second last I would imagine he'll look like the winner no matter the outcome to an awaful lot of punters.

He could hit as low as 2.5-3 in running and if he did you could green up and near treble your stake money.

I'm having more on if he's in the overnights and letting my other bets run.....If he does hit a low price in running then it won't hit me so hard if he loses.

Good idea or not?
 
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You are a fantasist if you think Grandouet is a Back now to Lay later. Have you not watched the market over the last two days? The horse will be lucky to make the start.

I have no intention of defending Hurricane Fly from harbourside gossip. The horse's record speaks for itself.

If I'm wrong about him, it will be a painful lesson, learned the hard way - twice - and I will put my hands up to it. But if I'm right, the fishwives better look for cover, because I will be coming after every last one of them - you included. ;)

:D
 
hezz said:
Hurricane Fly can't possibly win :lol:

And place laid :lol:

You should be on stage Tanlic
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I think Hurricane is a place lay at the prices

what I dont see is Rock On Ruby shortening in the betting,especially if the ground is soft
 
Grasshopper said:
You are a fantasist if you think Grandouet is a Back now to Lay later. Have you not watched the market over the last two days? The horse will be lucky to make the start.

I have no intention of defending Hurricane Fly from harbourside gossip. The horse's record speaks for itself.

If I'm wrong about him, it will be a painful lesson, learned the hard way - twice - and I will put my hands up to it. But if I'm right, the fishwives better look for cover, because I will be coming after every last one of them - you included. ;)

:D
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Do read my post again I said if he is in the overnight decs.

Anyway he's a certain runner according to my contacts Mutt and Jeff. 2 more honest guys you could ever hope to meet
http://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/forum/images/attach/jpg.gif
 

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if it was good ground i'd fancy RoR to win as it is i think it'll be between the fly and zarkandar.
 
Tanlic said:
Grandouet...was a race short of peak fitness in the International, he was giving weight to Zarkandar and had he not had an interrupted build up to the race he would most definitely have turned the tables on him.
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There's a turn-round in the weights, granted, but how can Grandouet be anything other than short of "peak fitness" on Tuesday?
 
That's the $64 million question Gus. How has he come out of yesterdays gallop? Why do you think Barry said nothing about him in his blog and Nicky said nothing more than he worked on Friday morning and is ok?

The answer is they don't know for sure and wont until they see he comes out of it and canters on Sunday or Monday.

I reckon NH is resigned to the fact the less he says the better. The very same NH wouldn't be drawn to say anything about Sprinter Sacre before he jumped a fence because he felt if he said he thought the horse was one of the best jumpers of a fence he had ever seen and can beat trains people would think he was mad.

We the racing public are as fickle as they come I couldn't be ar$ed talking to us either :D
 
granger said:
Hurricane has the odd flaw or two but Grandouet is certainly one who always seems to always have an excuse needed
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Not like you to be talking nonsense Granger''''are you drunk?

You mean like losing out on having a run because two meeting were abandoned or injuring himself weeks before the race? I'd say he could have done without any of those excuses :rolleyes:
 
The only reason Grandouet missed out on prep runs is because Henderson is singularly incapable of finding the horse a race - despite there being plenty of options for him.
 
to be fair there were plenty of races but not many run if any on decent ground

personally regardless i think how ever fit they do get him at home a lack of a run is a negative you can get away with it in a handicap or an uncompetitive group race but this isnt one of them
 
Your not getting way with that one Grassy....that's nothing more than a cheap shot......you can do better than that.....How about a list of the races he could have run in after the International that Darlan or Binocular never ran in
 
Thanks for making my point for me, Tanlic. Henderson struggles to find races for all his top hurdles because he refuses to run them against each other. It's therefore not on to state there haven't been any suitable races for Grandouet.

This isn't even a new thing - he's farted-about like this for the last several years.
 
the ground looks likely to be soft..that won't help ROR or Grandouet who are not going to be 100% on the day re fitness. I can't see either winning it tbh..add to that ROR isn't going to have the same pace to run at as last year and i just do not see him winning.

The pace is key to me..its one thing making your own running..and another having a horse just in front making it for you..in the latter scenario you may just let your horse stretch a little more..and if you have extra stamina it then comes into play as ROR showed last year. The problem without the horse in front of you is that the jockey just goes that little slower trying to conserve a bit..even though the jock knows he has extra stamina. So even if Zarkandar or ROR do make it they won't go as solid as last year.

Normally i hold a strong view about one horse looking the likely winner..but this year i just can't see anything that stands out..particularly as the obvious ones need a good pace..except one..HF..who imo can win under conditions that should be similar to his previous win...at the second last he will be up against stayers that haven't emptied the speedsters.

If i thought Grandouet was likely to show his best then this race would be tailor made for him..as it is i can see HF speeding past these late on..as two years ago.
 
EC1, will you be taking sectionals of the race on the day? if so, how quickly will you be able to post your analysis up here?
 
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