Champion Hurdle 2013

Ardross said:
You would be very disheartened by what he said about Grandouet .
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I'm disheartened Nicky gave him his job back;)


He wasn't even there when the horses worked last Tuesday. George baker and his assistant were in the jeep with Nicky watching them work. Morlock was away picking up the bacon and eggs fro Nicky's breakfast. :lol:

Cracking pic of Simonsig GB took


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Fill your boots with the 2s. Grandouet is the only other horse with the potential to be top class (and he's probably short of it, plus very bad vibes). Zarkander is a 165 bracket horse, same with Rock on Ruby. If you think Hurricane Fly is a 170-175 horse, then 2/1 is a great bet. Small field and ground will suit him, he looks back to his best this season and there may not be a very strong pace.
 
Too many bookies out to get him Hamm.....he's this year's Bismark in preference to MTOY.

Not that him being horse they want to get will affect his chance. He'll probably go off between 5/2 and 3/1 fav now the ground is soft and there's doubt about Rock On Ruby who would have been challenging him for fav had the Ground been good. Bookies think the stats say he can't win
 
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After all of the defections and some of the prices being offered this week I think I will seriously have to question my ante post stance next year.
 
Same here btb. For me, the going is the second biggest factor after form when picking a horse and frankly we still don't know where we are. I'd rather take a slightly shorter price nearer the time with the certainty of conditions suiting

Do you think that the bookies are really going on stats tanlic? I suspect there's more to it than that. To me the "regaining the crown" stat and the horses age are pretty fringe factors

I still haven't a clue in this race but zarkander is perhaps ticking most boxes for what won't be a big bet
 
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Tanlic said:
Every jockey in the race has said that but that doesn't mean he'll go off like a maniac.
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setting a solid pace isn't anything to do with going off like a maniac..setting a pace like last years which was just a bit faster than even pace is enough to kill the speed horses off..any slower and HF will pounce on you hard late on.

which is why i didn't understand his statement about not going as fast as last year..thats how fast they need to go if they don't want outspeeding late on

its not rocket science this really.
 
If Zarkander wins It will look obvious in hindsight.He doesn't need to improve much to get past Hurricane at his best.
 
EC1 said:
setting a solid pace isn't anything to do with going off like a maniac..setting a pace like last years which was just a bit faster than even pace is enough to kill the speed horses off..any slower and HF will pounce on you hard late on.

which is why i didn't understand his statement about not going as fast as last year..thats how fast they need to go if they don't want outspeeding late on

its not rocket science this really.
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Yeah but Denis doesn't want to finish 2nd like Overturn he wants to win.

The Champion Hurdle is always run a decent pace. The best way to beat your Hurricane Fly's and Binoculars is by suddenly injecting pace, not going an even pace. Overturn did exactly that last year and Hurricane Fly and Binocular suddenly had 4 lengths to find just to get into a challenging position. Rock on Ruby was wise to the move went with him and the minute he injected that bit more pace those behind who has already quickened couldn't quicken again

It's all about getting your opponents to use their speed up before they want to. You go any quicker than Overturn went last year you wont be able to inject additional pace and you just become a sitting duck.
 
Tanlic said:
Yeah but Denis doesn't want to finish 2nd like Overturn he wants to win.

The Champion Hurdle is always run a decent pace. The best way to beat your Hurricane Fly's and Binoculars is by suddenly injecting pace, not going an even pace. Overturn did exactly that last year and Hurricane Fly and Binocular suddenly had 4 lengths to find just to get into a challenging position. Rock on Ruby was wise to the move went with him and the minute he injected that bit more pace those behind who has already quickened couldn't quicken again

It's all about getting your opponents to use their speed up before they want to. You go any quicker than Overturn went last year you wont be able to inject additional pace and you just become a sitting duck.
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CH isn't always run at a decent pace..check the year HF won

I'm talking about the early pace that Overturn set

the best way to beat HF is a solid early pace ..and then be able to keep going late with the extra stamina
 
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You gotta love times especially sectionals. You ever ask why we don't use them in the UK? It's called grass

You look at the clock and you automatically say Overturn never set a strong enough pace.

The problem with that is there's no real way of telling how holding the ground on the Champion Hurdle course was. You can argue in both the last two years it was good to soft but there's a massive difference between good to soft and good to soft ground. It can be easy to go through and if it's been drying out it can be very tacky.

Last year they watered the year HF won they never it had gone from soft to good to soft which would make it tackier than it is when you water.

So what appeared not to be a strong pace may well have been in the conditions and I think just watching the race that was the case no matter what the clock says.

Where I thought it went wrong for the others and went right for Hurricane Fly is the expected injection of pace Donald McCain had planned and was depending on to get HF off the bridle never came.

Go back and watch Jason McGuire jump the 3rd last when he takes over. Immediately he got down in the drive position and tried to get Peddelrs Cross to inject more pace (Quicken) but it never happened. He barely quickened at all. he then waited until he jumped the second last and tried again but again he couldn't get PC to quicken to any great degree and that gave HF all the time in the world to draw level and go ahead to win.

It certainly wasn't for Overturn to set a slowish pace, he went off like he always does being a natural front runner. Going faster isn't something have to ask him to do and Graham Lee wasn't restraining him.

Personally I think it wasn't a great Champion Hurdle at all but not because of the over all time but for the lack of real top class hurdlers in the race.

I'll be very surprised if Hurricane Fly doesn't get involved this year but I just wonder if even at his best if it will be good enough.
 
I have done as I said I would and had a good bet on Grandouet which is separate from my AP bets on. No way will he not be half his current odds in running and I'll be laying off all of that bet and greening up at some point depending on how he is going at the top of the hill. Too bad if I am wrong I'll survive.

Nicky has at least confirmed what I have been saying since last week that he had worked ok on Tuesday and much better on Friday buy saying the last 10 days have been good.

It is rumoured that he was asked why he didn't gag Charlie Morlock and he said he would have but he needs someone to answer the phone and he's also good at ordereing pizzas :lol:
 
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Tanlic said:
You gotta love times especially sectionals. You ever ask why we don't use them in the UK? It's called grass

You look at the clock and you automatically say Overturn never set a strong enough pace.

The problem with that is there's no real way of telling how holding the ground on the Champion Hurdle course was. You can argue in both the last two years it was good to soft but there's a massive difference between good to soft and good to soft ground. It can be easy to go through and if it's been drying out it can be very tacky.

Last year they watered the year HF won they never it had gone from soft to good to soft which would make it tackier than it is when you water.

So what appeared not to be a strong pace may well have been in the conditions and I think just watching the race that was the case no matter what the clock says.

Where I thought it went wrong for the others and went right for Hurricane Fly is the expected injection of pace Donald McCain had planned and was depending on to get HF off the bridle never came.

Go back and watch Jason McGuire jump the 3rd last when he takes over. Immediately he got down in the drive position and tried to get Peddelrs Cross to inject more pace (Quicken) but it never happened. He barely quickened at all. he then waited until he jumped the second last and tried again but again he couldn't get PC to quicken to any great degree and that gave HF all the time in the world to draw level and go ahead to win.

It certainly wasn't for Overturn to set a slowish pace, he went off like he always does being a natural front runner. Going faster isn't something have to ask him to do and Graham Lee wasn't restraining him.

Personally I think it wasn't a great Champion Hurdle at all but not because of the over all time but for the lack of real top class hurdlers in the race.

I'll be very surprised if Hurricane Fly doesn't get involved this year but I just wonder if even at his best if it will be good enough.
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not sure what you mean by "grass" tbh....the going for Cheltenham is pretty easy to calculate every year..holding or not...simply by comparing race times with the par for that particular race..again its not rocket science. When calculating any speed figures no one in their right mind takes any notice of man made names for goings like "Good to Soft"..its done by time.

not seeing your argument about the pace in 2011..it was clearly an easy pace early on

just because Overturn leads in races..it doesn't mean he goes the same speed every time..his effort in 2011 was to weaken off an easy lead..his effort in 2012 was to run his best ever race after going harder earlier..a different animal ..best ever run

purely on overall times in 2011..if the CH was a true run race then how come on the same ground the Supreme Nov was run 1.65 seconds faster?..the answer to that is simple..the early pace damaged the final time in the CH..because it wasn't a solid early pace...even if you want it to be.

the reason PC could not quicken was that HF has more speed and quickened ..a stayer does not quicken off a below even pace early..they get flat footed and just keep going at one pace. A stronger early pace would have played to PC's strengths..whereas it played to HF's
 
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Fist
Graham Lee rode Overturn in 2011 and was there to make the pace for Peddlers Cross - he made such an arse of it that PC had to force the pace himself from a good way out.
Last year Overturn was there in his own right (and with a jockey who knew him), that, and the more searching overall pace he set, made all the difference to his performance.
 
Ok twenty one pages of threads, if you haven't made your minds up by now you never will, so who's everyones' 1-2-3.? I will kick off with

1.Zarkandar

2.Rock On Ruby

3.Cinders and Ashes
 
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