Champion Hurdle 2014

Maxbet said:
Against 4yo's
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not seeing that point Max...he's 12 months older now..a fully developed animal

the fact the improvement the 12 months has brought has not been seen fully yet is key...some people are assuming horses do not improve between 4 + 5...when in fact they develop a lot over hurdles in that period

imo..his full A game will be on display Tuesday..then we will see if he is good enough..or stays a distance he has already stayed and more against the best of his peers as a 4yo
 
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All of the more 'cleverer' posters on here are lumping on Our Conor. Please take note. It's blindin' and bloomin obvious.
 
Desert Orchid said:
They do [have a poor record], and normally I'd be very wary of a 5yo.

Our Conor is different.

His juvenile form is miles ahead a normal 4yo. Just precocious? Possibly, but I don't think Dessie Hughes is the kind of trainer who would have sent him for the Irish Champion Hurdle "when it was clearly evident he wasn't 100% fit" [Ken Pitterson] if he was a precocious type. If that were the case he'd have had him 110% that day in expectation of no further improvement and little prospect of winning at Cheltenham. It would have been his best chance of a championship race.
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I agree absolutely.
 
EC1 said:
not seeing that point Max...he's 12 months older now..a fully developed animal

the fact the improvement the 12 months has brought has not been seen yet is key...some people are assuming horses do not improve between 4 + 5...when in fact they develop a lot over hurdles in that period

imo..his full A game will be on display Tuesday..then we will see if he is good enough..or stays a distance he has already stayed and more against the best of his peers as a 4yo
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What I am trying to say is, how do we not know he wasn't fully developed last year in terms of what he will achieve...a lot of 2 yr olds don't train on...different sires show very different levels of precociousness some improve at 2 some at 5....A lot of sires are chosen for the quick return these days so they choose precocious progeny breeding sires, Jeremy is one of them.
 
baracouda said:
All of the more 'cleverer' posters on here are lumping on Our Conor. Please take note. It's blindin' and bloomin obvious.
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He's drifting like a barge on the general markets...define more cleverer...is that the opposite to worser.:D:lol:
 
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Maxbet said:
What I am trying to say is, how do we not know he wasn't fully developed last year in terms of what he will achieve...a lot of 2 yr olds don't train on...different sires show very different levels of precociousness some improve at 2 some at 5....A lot of sires are chosen for the quick return these days so they choose precocious progeny breeding sires, Jeremy is one of them.
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we don't know for sure..but the rating he ran in the Triumph was not far away from CH winning form at that point..this year has shown he's a little behind HF..when not fully revved up...suggesting that when he is 100% he will be hitting 170's

its not exactly like 2yo to 3yo imo....hurdling technique improves in 100% of horses as they get more experience...that alone will improve a horse even if physically they were fully developed at 4.
 
There's a massive difference between 2yo flat and 4yojumps horses they have the basic frame filled to 80%.As a 4yo he has proven himself a horse apart ..at least 4 GRADES. ahead of an average Triumph winner . He's armed and primed, in fact he reminds me of me right now ..right here..right now.
 
Maxbet said:
He's drifting like a barge on the general markets...define more cleverer...is that the opposite to worser.:D:lol:
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he's hardly drifting. just gone back into slight 3rd fave on betfair over mtoy after the latter had assumed it earlier.

really think these markets will stay pretty solid really. if anyone i could see irish money piling on the fly on the day but wouldnt' guarantee it.
 
Maxbet said:
He's drifting like a barge on the general markets...define more cleverer...is that the opposite to worser.:D:lol:
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how much is drifting like a barge?..he's generally 4/1 at the moment...

he should be 8/1 if the Irish CH form was his best surely?...maybe it wasn't his best:)
 
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EC1 said:
we don't know for sure..but the rating he ran in the Triumph was not far away from CH winning form at that point..this year has shown he's a little behind HF..when not fully revved up...suggesting that when he is 100% he will be hitting 170's

its not exactly like 2yo to 3yo imo....hurdling technique improves in 100% of horses as they get more experience...that alone will improve a horse even if physically they were fully developed at 4.
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I totally agree with that...He hurdles almost as good as The Fly...he clears them comfortably which I think allowed him on the new course to lay up and cruise through the race...on the old course a short stubby step over like The Fly, Binocular and even Zarkandar keeps them in the race.
 
reet hard said:
He's travelled like that in his last 3 NH races, DO.
In the first, he had the race won 2f from home and had no challengers to fight off, the 2nd; he came off the bridle coming to the last and his effort petered out, and the 3rd (off a steadier pace) he jumped the last before being asked a question and still didn't last home.
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In the first, if he had simply no challengers to fight off he'd simply have stayed in front of them. If all he did was keep going then everything else in both the Triumph and County were in reverse gear. Quite simply, he found speed I don't recall any other horse - Rooster Booster included - finding over that last 1.5f.

It's his two runs this season that appear to see him petering out but I reckon it's fair to say all the professional paddock watchers noted that he wasn't fit.

He'll turn up on Tuesday hard fit and ready to put on a display that will have you agog.
 
That's fighting talk DO . You are going to look a very stupid man if we're not right about Our Conor.
 
baracouda said:
That's fighting talk DO . You are going to look a very stupid man if we're not right about Our Conor.
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why would he look stupid?..or why would Grassy look stupid for having a similar belief in HF..game is about opinions...some people have strong ones..but everyone gets it wrong

its the strong opinions that make this thread worth reading every year...stupid don't come in to it
 
Good to know that your contributing again , from what I've read you are a wise and much respected judge.
 
just to put some meat on the age argument re 5yo & 10 yo

in the last 15 years 46 5yo's have run in the CH...the average price was 44/1...one horse won..which shows that when actual chance of winning is taken into account..its a non stat

in the same period only 5 10yo's ran...none won...but only 5 have tried..hardly a large sample
 
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