Champion Hurdle 2014

DO

this is a post from last year when i had a stab at comparing the County with the Triumph

the ground at close of play on Thursday i got about 0.45 slow pf.

the Gold Cup on Friday was 23 seconds slower than par..the going at that point was 0.85 pf slow

so from about1pm to 3.30 the ground has slowed by .40pf..mainly between 1.30 and 3.30.

it didn't seem too bad up to the triumph and was bad near the end of the race

so..we could assess the ground at Triumph time as 0.50 slow

if the ground then was slowing at the rate of .18 per hour

The County going allowance would be 0.50+0.10 = 0.60 slow

obviously lots of guesswork but it is based on some logic

the Triumph going corrected time is 242.6
the County going corrected time is 245.9

so Our Conor [11.00] has run 3.3 seconds faster than Ted Veale [10.06]..Ted will have run to about a 140 OHR there..so 140 + 23lb for the time difference + 8lb for the weight given..comes to the grand total of 171 for Our Conor. He won in a canter as well.

of course..i could be miles out

if its right...this is the new Golden Cygnet

If the above is correct...we will see something special on Tuesday afternoon..if its incorrect HF will win again
 
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177 rating predicted for Our Conor after he demolishes the best Champion hurdle field in recent years.
 
One thing to balance out the Our Conor enthusiasm, though...

I keep saying he won in a canter, etc but I do believe you cannot win like that and show that kind of speed and still be in a canter.

It looked very easy but was probably more a case of the horse running generously - probably as fast as it could - without encouragement from the saddle.

I'm not in the least bit worried about how the race unfolds on Tuesday. Our Conor will hack along regardless. The others can make their move as and when they want. Our Conor will be travelling like Rooster Booster and will put the race to bed in a matter of strides.
 
Desert Orchid said:
One thing to balance out the Our Conor enthusiasm, though...

I keep saying he won in a canter, etc but I do believe you cannot win like that and show that kind of speed and still be in a canter.

It looked very easy but was probably more a case of the horse running generously - probably as fast as it could - without encouragement from the saddle.

I'm not in the least bit worried about how the race unfolds on Tuesday. Our Conor will hack along regardless. The others can make their move as and when they want. Our Conor will be travelling like Rooster Booster and will put the race to bed in a matter of strides.
Click to expand...

I agree absolutely.
 
Desert Orchid said:
One thing to balance out the Our Conor enthusiasm, though...

I keep saying he won in a canter, etc but I do believe you cannot win like that and show that kind of speed and still be in a canter.

It looked very easy but was probably more a case of the horse running generously - probably as fast as it could - without encouragement from the saddle.
Click to expand...

Chased leader and always travelling well, upsides 2 out, soon led on bit, effortlessly drew clear between last 2, pushed out when well in command run-in, impressive 15L

Collateral Far west 148 + (15 x .2)+15=166
Sametegal 150 +(17 x.2) + 17 = 170.4
170.4 + 166/2 = 168
 
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Maxbet said:
Chased leader and always travelling well, upsides 2 out, soon led on bit, effortlessly drew clear between last 2, pushed out when well in command run-in, impressive 15L

Collateral Far west 148 + (15 x .2)+15=166
Sametegal 150 +(17 x.2) + 17 = 170.4
170.4 + 166/2 = 168
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... as a 4yo, which is about the level he's been running to this year against the Fly.

Gassin Golf is another who finally found his 10-12lbs improvement on Saturday.

Just wait till Our Conor shows his.
 
Desert Orchid said:
... as a 4yo, which is about the level he's been running to this year against the Fly.

Gassin Golf is another who finally found his 10-12lbs improvement on Saturday.

Just wait till Our Conor shows his.
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Precocious type who already had it last year and hasn't progressed...needs to be upped in distance to find extra.

He has shown exactly what he had last year and needs to find 3Lb + 2 lengths on The Fly

Won't place
 
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Maxbet said:
Precocious type who already had it last year and hasn't progressed...needs to be upped in distance to find extra.

He has shown exactly what he had last year and needs to find 3Lb + 2 lengths on The fly
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WFA !!!! 5yo's improve LENGTHS at this time of year!! Ask Alan King he knows and I'm quoting him.
 
5yo's have a very poor record against older horses and any that have excelled before that age can surely be deemed precocious. So far Our Conor has not given any evidence that he has improved from last year and anyone who is backing him is doing so in the hope that Cheltenham brings about the 7/8 Lbs of improvement he will need to win.

How many of the 4yo's that ran in that Triumph have improved
 
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Erm ...Diakali won a Graded race in France errm Far west was travelling ominously well when falling in the ..I forget some competitive handicap. There's 2
 
They do [have a poor record], and normally I'd be very wary of a 5yo.

Our Conor is different.

His juvenile form is miles ahead a normal 4yo. Just precocious? Possibly, but I don't think Dessie Hughes is the kind of trainer who would have sent him for the Irish Champion Hurdle "when it was clearly evident he wasn't 100% fit" [Ken Pitterson] if he was a precocious type. If that were the case he'd have had him 110% that day in expectation of no further improvement and little prospect of winning at Cheltenham. It would have been his best chance of a championship race.
 
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Diakali went too fast, would have improved his position if he hadn't done all the donkey work, he was pushing on at the wrong places on that course

But they haven't improved, they are still rated the same as what they achieved in the Triumph.

Careful here because if you say they have and yet their ratings are thus...then we need to lower his mark further...
 
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Desert Orchid said:
One thing to balance out the Our Conor enthusiasm, though...

I keep saying he won in a canter, etc but I do believe you cannot win like that and show that kind of speed and still be in a canter.

It looked very easy but was probably more a case of the horse running generously - probably as fast as it could - without encouragement from the saddle.

I'm not in the least bit worried about how the race unfolds on Tuesday. Our Conor will hack along regardless. The others can make their move as and when they want. Our Conor will be travelling like Rooster Booster and will put the race to bed in a matter of strides.
Click to expand...

He's travelled like that in his last 3 NH races, DO.
In the first, he had the race won 2f from home and had no challengers to fight off, the 2nd; he came off the bridle coming to the last and his effort petered out, and the 3rd (off a steadier pace) he jumped the last before being asked a question and still didn't last home.
For mine, he's a very good horse with oodles of speed, but has yet to prove he has the stamina, and I firmly believe he'll travel well again Tuesday, but will still be found wanting where it matters.
 
not seeing how he won't have stamina though..he has won a championship race easily over 0.5 furlongs further than the CH..and that was as a 4yo

the drift in the betting before the Irish CH told you if the horse was 100% or not...and he still gave HF probably one of the hardest races he has ever had
 
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reet hard said:
He's travelled like that in his last 3 NH races, DO.
In the first, he had the race won 2f from home and had no challengers to fight off, the 2nd; he came off the bridle coming to the last and his effort petered out, and the 3rd (off a steadier pace) he jumped the last before being asked a question and still didn't last home.
For mine, he's a very good horse with oodles of speed, but has yet to prove he has the stamina, and I firmly believe he'll travel well again Tuesday, but will still be found wanting where it matters.
Click to expand...

Perfect assumption...place lay
 
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