Champion Hurdle 2014

Seanyboy01 said:
THE NEW ONE will take matters into his own hands and a naive ride will see him go to the front too soon once again. MTOY will fall at the fifth when the pace increases. THE HURRICANE will be cruising home towards the last with an easy lead gained coming round the bend, only with Paul Townend on board, delighting the masses of 6/4 favourite backers. Then along comes Ruby Walsh on UN DE SCEAUX, out of nowhere, full of running to do an AL Ferof supreme hurdle-style attack, only turbo-powering up the hill to win the Champion Hurdle in the quickest time in the history of the race, going away.
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And then you woke up.

Ruby has suggested the absolute opposite namely that talented as he is Un de Sceaux runs with the choke out and will be making the running or close to it and why the hell should MTOY fall - he appears a very good jumper indeed.
 
I just hope that come March 11th all of a sudden all these exciting second season hurdlers are suddenly not going to be described as plodders and not that good horses all of a sudden.
 
Never been a Fly knocker and I for one will give him credit if he lowers the colours of MTOY TNO our Connor and Jezki,if he doesn't place I'll equally have made mind up.could be a bridge too far.
 
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Ardross said:
And then you woke up.

Ruby has suggested the absolute opposite namely that talented as he is Un de Sceaux runs with the choke out and will be making the running or close to it and why the hell should MTOY fall - he appears a very good jumper indeed.
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Again, pinch of salt.
 
Enjoying the banter. Excitement building. The race cant come quick enough!

A place lay of The Fly at the minute makes a bit of sense to me actually. If only for the low liability and the possibility of him picking up an injury pre-race.

Those place laying him if he does line up on the day are out of their brains though. He'll be bang there!
 
Does anyone who believes age is about to catch up with the Fly have any actual evidence they would like to share, as opposed to assumptions based on what has happened to other horses?
 
Only the evidence we’ve already mentioned, his form, which admittedly has him on a mark not too far off his best, but doesn't look good enough. With The New One and MTOY already at the same level, with the best will the world you can’t really see him quickening up the hill off a fast pace as well as two or three of these. He's got a lot on his plate this year.
 
Official ratings have MTOY and The New One about 7lbs behind, while Hurricane Fly is rated just behind Istabraq. Fact.

I actually think Hurricane Fly is better than Istabraq was, he's not one to win by big margins but he's got one hell of a kick and he showed last time out that he still has it. Opinion.
 
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Timeform have them bang up there with him, but based on a positive view of the Kempton form (as opposed to the multiple times HF has run to within a few pounds of his rating).
 
Thanks Gareth.

So Timeform are saying they are bang up there with Istabraq as well. I think they are good horses but this seems premature.
 
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Grey said:
Official ratings have MTOY and The New One about 7lbs behind, while Hurricane Fly is rated just behind Istabraq. Fact.

I actually think Hurricane Fly is better than Istabraq was, he's not one to win by big margins but he's got one hell of a kick and he showed last time out that he still has it. Opinion.
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There’s always a lag with ORs as they tend to remain the same rather than go down. HF remains on his best ever OR of 175, while his last couple of races have clearly not been run to that level.

If you take the last two runs for each of the three, on RPRs TNO and MTOY are actually rated slightly above HF in each respective race, so they are all running to about the same level on current form.
Haven’t seen Timeform’s updated ratings, but I expect them to look very similar on your Timeform card come March.
 
Timeform's best 5 performance ratings for Istabraq were 172+, 172+, 171+, 170+, 169+ but they had a Master Rating for him as high as 180.

Hurricane Fly's best performance ratings are 171+, 170+, 170, 169+, 169+, 169+ and his Master Rating is 173 (it might have been higher previously, someone with the annuals can check).

My Tent Or Yours has a 172 performance rating from Kempton (which is his Master Rating now) and a next best 164 from his Supreme effort.

The New One has a 171 performance rating from Kempton (also his Master Rating) and a 169+ from his seasonal debut which I missed when I wrote my previous post. 159+ is his next best after that.

Obviously as only second season hurdlers they haven't had the same opportunity to consistently rack up ~170 performances etc. etc.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Timeform's best 5 performance ratings for Istabraq were 172+, 172+, 171+, 170+, 169+ but they had a Master Rating for him as high as 180.

Hurricane Fly's best performance ratings are 171+, 170+, 170, 169+, 169+, 169+ and his Master Rating is 173 (it might have been higher previously, someone with the annuals can check).

My Tent Or Yours has a 172 performance rating from Kempton (which is his Master Rating now) and a next best 164 from his Supreme effort.

The New One has a 171 performance rating from Kempton (also his Master Rating) and a 169+ from his seasonal debut which I missed when I wrote my previous post. 159+ is his next best after that.

Obviously as only second season hurdlers they haven't had the same opportunity to consistently rack up ~170 performances etc. etc.
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Thanks Gareth. Not much in it then. The younger legs ought to come out best I reckon.
 
SteveM said:
Only the evidence we’ve already mentioned, his form, which admittedly has him on a mark not too far off his best, but doesn't look good enough. With The New One and MTOY already at the same level, with the best will the world you can’t really see him quickening up the hill off a fast pace as well as two or three of these. He's got a lot on his plate this year.
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Steve, TNO and MTOY are not at the same level as Hurricane Fly.

TNO hasn't even won an open Grade 1 hurdle as yet, so please cease and desist with this inflammatory, illusory, inaccurate and misleading cobblers. :cool:
 
The Fly is way ahead of Istabraq. and anyone claiming MTOY or TNO are at that level is simply needing some time in a dark room and straps attached to their bed. Its astounding how many people dont give Fly the credit he deserves.
 
it is strange how much he seems to divide opinion

he could win by half the track in march and there'd still be naysayers
 
TNO beat a stayer at last year's festival and MTOY didn't win at last years festival. TNO beat Zarkander in the international by less than Annie Power did, while the beaten horses in the Christmas Hurdle were decent handicappers at best.

Their form isn't even close to that of Hurricane Fly.
 
Digger said:
The Fly is way ahead of Istabraq. and anyone claiming MTOY or TNO are at that level is simply needing some time in a dark room and straps attached to their bed. Its astounding how many people dont give Fly the credit he deserves.
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He will get the "credit he deserves" for past achievements. No question. But thats what they are.
 
What a load of crap

Istabraq was rated 176 HF is 175 . To say HF is miles better or ahead of Istabraq is nonsense . He had a terrific turn of foot and travelled like a dream - but for F and M he would have surely won 4 CH as long as he stood up .

I struggle to see Istabraq ever losing a CH to Rock on Ruby .
 
Ardross said:
What a load of crap

Istabraq was rated 176 HF is 175 . To say HF is miles better or ahead of Istabraq is nonsense . He had a terrific turn of foot and travelled like a dream - but for F and M he would have surely won 4 CH as long as he stood up .

I struggle to see Istabraq ever losing a CH to Rock on Ruby .
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Istabraq fell at odds of 1/4 and 2/7 previously
 
Maybe so, Ardross, but anyone who actually believes that the 2012 CH was Hurricane Fly's true form, needs their head examined. HF cantered all over RoR just a month later.
 
Grasshopper said:
Steve, TNO and MTOY are not at the same level as Hurricane Fly.

TNO hasn't even won an open Grade 1 hurdle as yet, so please cease and desist with this inflammatory, illusory, inaccurate and misleading cobblers. :cool:
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Very refreshing to have these round-table peer debates of mutual respect, you myopic fecker... Fly in ya eye.
 
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