Champion Hurdle 2014

Grasshopper said:
I had MTOY down as pretty-much held going to the last at Kempton, Ardross. And he didn't put much daylight between himself and TNO between just after the last and the line, despite TNO being less than fluent (he slightly ran-down last and definitely lost momentum relative to MTOY, wbo quickly went by).

I still have a doubt about MTOY's constitution, and the Champion Hurdle isn't a race that's going to be won on the bridle - not MTOY's bridle, at any rate. :D
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I agree with you 100% on this Grasshopper... Big part of the reason why I think TNO will win. Glad to see you coming around!
 
Really wish they would fix this site.......I enjoyed posting here but having to use a tor browser to get on is a pain in the ass.

Back in November as posted I was all for Hurricane Fly winning again. Now I am equally convinced Our Conor will beat him at Cheltenham.

I should add : If they ride him the right way.

In the Triumph Our Conor despite some novice jumping always looked happy.

The other day he was given an impossible task IMO

He tracked Hurricane Fly all the way round then tried to do him for speed......If it is possible that's not the way to beat the Fly.

Our Conor was always traveling well maybe even better than Hurricane Fly was 3 out.
A repeat of that at Cheltenham but ridden a few lengths ahead of Hurricane Fly could very well see a turn around.

If the ground is faster than it was the other day, which is very likely, and Our Conor can be real handy and kick from the front just after 2 out I doubt if anyone will catch him.

He certainly proved the other day that giving Hurricane Fly a race isn't beyond him

The worry is they finished in a heap but then again Captain Cee Bee is no mug in any ones book.He's one of the best travelers in the game so when it turned into a sprint they're hardly going to be putting miles between him and themselves.

I have the greatest respect for Hurricane Fly but this young horse may well be the best we have seen in a very long time. The trainers a canny lad and he'll strip a lot fitter come March than we have seen him turn up so far.

I am totally amazed MTOY and The New One are shorter in price.

The New One is good but a future Champion Hurdle winner? His defeat of Zarkander who failed next time to give any sort of race to Annie Power and two separate occasion is nothing to write home about. Beating Rockon Ruby who was having his pre chasing prep is even less inspiring.

He may well have beaten MTOY at Kempton but for a mistake but what has MTOY done to warrant better support than Our Conor? His 3 length defeat of Cockney Sparrow wouldn't have me rushing to back him.

The form these 2 have shown so far falls miles short of that shown by Hurricane Fly. They looked good kicking lumps out of each other but the Fly is not cockney sparrow or a below his best Zarkandar.

I honestly think its a 2sided coin. Either you are on the side of Hurricane Fly and Our Conor or your on the side of MTOY and The New One and the bookies have it wrong.

Nothing has changed as faras I can make out and the Champion Hurdle is a straight match between Our Conor and Hurricane Fly in my book.......and I'm covinced Our Conor will win in style as he did in the Triumph
 
Ardross said:
I know that TNO is renowned for being at his best at Cheltenham but I struggle to see why he should beat MTOY . The mistake at the last looked worse than it was and did not affect his momentum and MTOY was going away from him at the end .

TNO's jumping also looks a tad dodgy generally .
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Also TNO was much fitter, NTD has had him fit all year and especially for the xmas hurdle and with two races compared to MTOYs one I think it was a poor showing. TNO does not have the pace to win a champion hurdle.

I don't think MTOY will win either however.
 
Tanlic said:
Nothing has changed as faras I can make out and the Champion Hurdle is a straight match between Our Conor and Hurricane Fly in my book.......and I'm covinced Our Conor will win in style as he did in the Triumph
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I think, the new course at cheltenham played to Our Conors strengths last year better than the sharper Old course will. Our Conors weight allowance in the Irish Champion hurdle will be gone also but he is probably best placed than the rest to take the minor honours behind the Fly.
 
baracouda said:
Good post Tanlic. Expect the usual inane response from tag team G+G.
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The difference between Tanlic's posting and some of the other hearsay on here is that his argument is well thought out. Whilst I disagree with him on the victor, I do think he has the first two correct.

Our Conor as long as staying healthy will win a champion hurdle, just not this year buddy
 
baracouda said:
Good post Tanlic. Expect the usual inane response from tag team G+G.
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It is a good post from Tanlic. I've also commented that the only chance Our Conor would have is to pile on the pressure earlier. Now that would win many a CH as most wont be able to go with him. But most are not HF. I expect Our Conor to kick for home early. Fly to just stalk him and as soon as they hit that hill will glide past. Only one horse will be motoring at the end. :D
 
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Good Post Tanlic...

Very Good analysis of the Irish form.

But I have to say I think you and a few others are being a bit dismissive of the MTOY & TNO form.

Remember you can tie in MTOY novice form with Jezki in the Supreme (Most comparable conditions). And you can then in turn tie in Jezki form with OC and HF. I know Jezki was poor the last day, but there's no way your statement "The form these 2 have shown so far falls miles short of that shown by Hurricane Fly" is accurate. HF only beat Jezki by 2 lengths at Christmas and MTOY beat Jezki same distance in the Supreme last year....

I think the Bookies have it spot on to be honest. It's no coincidence that TNO is 3/1 and MTOY is 6/1 . Most would agree that TNO had MYTO well held until he made a mess of the last at Kempton. I think the track at CHeltenham further plays to the strengths of TNO over MTOY.

Most in Ireland know that Our Conor will eventually beat Hurricane Fly. But will that be as soon as March?? He has to do it yet and until he does the betting is accurate.

I've also been reading a few saying this morning that TNO won't handle the pace or the race will be too quick for him.......

I just can't be having that... TNO has a serious Engine.

People also dismissing TNO hammering ROR in October.... Saying TNO was fit and ROR was not..... It was both horse first run of the season!!!!
Can't understand why some on here are using this as a negative against TNO.

To me this was more a reflection of how much TNO had grown and improved over the Summer and come on from a 5 to a 6 year Old...

Anyway..... that's my views.
 
Double Handful said:
Good Post Tanlic...
People also dismissing TNO hammering ROR in October.... Saying TNO was fit and ROR was not..... It was both horse first run of the season!!!!
Can't understand why some on here are using this as a negative against TNO.
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Personally I think NTD had him very fit for that race, the horse is his pride and joy and he didn't want him beat. I could easily be wrong.

The main reason I'd dismiss that race is that ROR is a completely different horse come the CH than he is outside it. His form outside the CH at times has been poor, even last year he ran a good race in the CH and then HF beat him on the bridle by 8L at Punchestown.
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They decided against it because they now believe there will be a decent Gallop.
Are you suggesting this as a negative that they have now changed their mind on a pacemaker?

Sam TD was on the RP Q&A session on Twitter the other evening.

Asked what conditions will suit TNO the best...

"Ideally we'd want it good to soft with a good gallop to make it a proper stamina test."
 
The New One's jumping is the issue though, it's far from what you would call slick hurdling and that will tell in a Championship race
 
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tiggers1972 said:
The New One's jumping is the issue though, it's far from what you would call slick hurdling and that will tell in a Championship race
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I hear ya Tiggers and I can't deny it. That is definitely one negative against TNO.

A lot has been made of his hurdling, But when you break it down it's really only been the last flight at Kempton & Cheltenham this season. Outside of that he was not that bad. There wasn't a real lack of fluency. He wasn't losing ground at each hurdle.

And he did ping the last and stormed up the Hill at the festival last year.
So I'm hoping Festival History repeats itself in this case!

But there's no doubt I'll be holding my breath as TNO approaches the last!
 
edgt said:
One thing for sure with TNO.
THe longer he is held up the better he is.
He idled and fiddled the last from being too long in front the last two times.
Hopefully Sam has more patience at festival.
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Spot on edgt. Timed it perfectly in the Neptune last year. Fully understand CH will be run at much quicker speed than that. But in terms of position, coming round the home turn and letting him go approaching the last!

That'll do nicely.
 
Since Cheltenham started their policy of watering the course, the going has never been worse than good-soft for the CH. What happens if it rains leading up to and during the Tuesday? I know the course drains brilliantly but it won't take much rain to turn the going to soft/heavy. We have been very lucky the past 10-15 years to avoid that going for the CH, but what happens if it does happen? Surely the two to benefit are The Fly and OC?
 
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Whilst it's obviously fabulous to see him back, my old mucker Tanlic is a reknowned purveyor of verbal mince, and any argument put forward by him which proposes opposition to The Fly, can be consigned to the scrap-heap.

When it's all boiled-down, it's just further fishwife chatter. The only saving grace for him is that his locale means he is used to tsunamis, and he's much more likely to get on the Arc in time, and avoid being flushed away with the rest of the working-girls down at the harbour.
 
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