Champion Hurdle 2014

Ardross said:
Go watch it again AP had nowhere near gone for everything.
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Are you conveniently forgetting that TNO had to do the donkey work from the turn in? MTOY got the run of the race, TNO missed the last and MTOY still made hard work of it. Whatever happens on race day, one thing i'm absolutely certain of is that TNO finishes in front of MTOY.
 
Ardross said:
Go watch it again AP had nowhere near gone for everything.
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Hi Ardross.

I watched the race again and watched the finish a few times.

I'll concede that my original quote saying TNO had him 'well held' was an exaggeration, But i still think the mistake TNO made at the last was significant.

On the flip side, to say 'AP had nowhere near gone for everything' isn't accurate either. McCoy was hard at work well before the final fence. That's as much as we've seen MTOY pushed to date. He was still on the Bridle coming to the last in the Supreme.

Also factored into my reason for fancying TNO is that I really think he loves and suits Cheltenham. All the talk at Christmas was if MTOY was to beat TNO that Kempton flat speed track would be his best oppurtunity.

Until Jezki's poor run in the Irish CH, AP was undecided between the two.
Some were of the opinion that Jezki may have been the one.
But it was never publicly confirmed by AP or JP.
If MTOY was always the one, I think AP & JP would have been confident enough to have said so earlier.

Like last year I just don't think MTOY will find up that hill. He is the most vulnerable of the top 5 in market for me.
 
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hezz said:
Are you conveniently forgetting that TNO had to do the donkey work from the turn in? MTOY got the run of the race, TNO missed the last and MTOY still made hard work of it. Whatever happens on race day, one thing i'm absolutely certain of is that TNO finishes in front of MTOY.
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Come on, we'll take the lot of em :ninja:
 
hezz said:
Are you conveniently forgetting that TNO had to do the donkey work from the turn in? MTOY got the run of the race, TNO missed the last and MTOY still made hard work of it. Whatever happens on race day, one thing i'm absolutely certain of is that TNO finishes in front of MTOY.
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Donkey work my arse - TNO's most impressive performances have been from kicking off a bend .
 
Double Handful said:
Hi Ardross.

I watched the race again and watched the finish a few times.

I'll concede that my original quote saying TNO had him 'well held' was an exaggeration, But i still think the mistake TNO made at the last was significant.

On the flip side, to say 'AP had nowhere near gone for everything' isn't accurate either. McCoy was hard at work well before the final fence. That's as much as we've seen MTOY pushed to date. He was still on the Bridle coming to the last in the Supreme.

Also factored into my reason for fancying TNO is that I really think he loves and suits Cheltenham. All the talk at Christmas was if MTOY was to beat TNO that Kempton flat speed track would be his best oppurtunity.

Until Jezki's poor run in the Irish CH, AP was undecided between the two.
Some were of the opinion that Jezki may have been the one.
But it was never publicly confirmed by AP or JP.
If MTOY was always the one, I think AP & JP would have been confident enough to have said so earlier.

Like last year I just don't think MTOY will find up that hill. He is the most vulnerable of the top 5 in market for me.
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I don't believe for a moment that AP was undecided he was being diplomatic.
 
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TNO "had to do the donkey work" because they knew he hadn't a chance unless they made it as much a stamina test as possible (they still failed btw). The notion that he idles in front is laughable considering he's won races by 6l, 10l, 4l, 16l, and 26l, and is predicated purely on his running out of steam against At Fishers Cross, owing to his jockey asking the horse to do too much too soon. If anyone had his own way in the Xmas Hurdle, it was TNO, not MTOY.
Much is made of his defeat of Rock On Ruby, but that horse was brought out deliberately early because he was thought to need at least a couple of runs to get fit, was without the blinkers that were felt so necessary at Cheltenham and Punchestown, and his trainer was so singularly unimpressed by his run that he was seriously mooted as a World Hurdle candidate in the immediate aftermath. His defeat of Zarkandar (another who needs further at the top level) hardly looks so rosy now either..
Though TNO's obviously a very good horse, it's my firm opinion - no matter how he's ridden - that he'll struggle for speed at some stage of the Champion Hurdle, and there's quite a few capable of taking advantage.
 
In Dublin's fair city,
Where the girls are so pretty,
I first set my eyes on sweet Molly Malone,
As she wheeled her wheel-barrow,
Through streets broad and narrow,
Crying, "Cockles and mussels, alive, alive, oh!"
"Alive, alive, oh,
Alive, alive, oh,"
Crying "Cockles and mussels, alive, alive, oh".
She was a fishmonger,
But sure 'twas no wonder,
For so were her father and mother before,
And they each wheeled their barrows,
Through streets broad and narrow,
Crying, "Cockles and mussels, alive, alive, oh!"
(chorus)
She died of a fever,
And none could relieve her,
And that was the end of sweet Molly Malone.
But her ghost wheels her barrow,
Through streets broad and narrow,
Crying, "Cockles and mussels, alive, alive, oh!"
 
I love it. Grasshopper goes fishing and his net is now absolutely full. Everyone has nailed their colours to the mast, and the last remnants of rationality have gone. The thoughts of genuine analysis clearly pushed somewhere to the back of the collective mind.

Me though, I prefer cold hard fact, and the result depends on the pace of the race and the underfoot conditions. And depending on which we get I can see up to 4 different results.

Twiston-Davies has said he no longer sees the need to run a pacemaker as he believes it will be run at Championship pace. But I don't see where his confidence comes from. What makes the pace? Un des Sceaux? Willie may not even run him. And if he does is that going to play the The Fly's strengths? I think not. So lets say he doesn't, or he gives Townend or Casey some unfathomable instructions. Where does the pace come from? Which horse is going to give them a really good toe? Are any of the major players really going to be keen to try and do a Hardy Eustace and win it from the the front. Well maybe. And maybe Suny's right and Un des Sceaux wins it if he indeed lines up. Or something else for that matter. But what? If nothing steps up though Grassy and his disciples will almost certainly be right, and they'll still be crowing in a decade!!!

If something takes them on at a genuine Championship pace on good to soft I see the Fly off the bridle as they enter the home turn possibly left with too much to do. If it's soft to heavy less so but I still see him as vulnerable. And I suspect the ground changes that result. And if they go too quick, and two of them take them on like AP and Ruby did on Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace we could just have a Sublimity year and we get a big surprse from something that's sensibly been kept out of the firing line.

So lets have a short 'Fishwife' pause (and that includes no comments about the 4 different results being how far Hurricane Fly wins!), and lets have a bit of debate about how we think the race will be run, and where the major players will want to be? And lets stop at their position coming round the final bend approaching the last rather than at the finishing line otherwise we'll never get two posts together without the word fishwife being used!!! :)
 
Maruco said:
I love it. Grasshopper goes fishing and his net is now absolutely full. Everyone has nailed their colours to the mast, and the last remnants of rationality have gone. The thoughts of genuine analysis clearly pushed somewhere to the back of the collective mind.

Me though, I prefer cold hard fact, and the result depends on the pace of the race and the underfoot conditions. And depending on which we get I can see up to 4 different results.

Twiston-Davies has said he no longer sees the need to run a pacemaker as he believes it will be run at Championship pace. But I don't see where his confidence comes from. What makes the pace? Un des Sceaux? Willie may not even run him. And if he does is that going to play the The Fly's strengths? I think not. So lets say he doesn't, or he gives Townend or Casey some unfathomable instructions. Where does the pace come from? Which horse is going to give them a really good toe? Are any of the major players really going to be keen to try and do a Hardy Eustace and win it from the the front. Well maybe. And maybe Suny's right and Un des Sceaux wins it if he indeed lines up. Or something else for that matter. But what? If nothing steps up though Grassy and his disciples will almost certainly be right, and they'll still be crowing in a decade!!!

If something takes them on at a genuine Championship pace on good to soft I see the Fly off the bridle as they enter the home turn possibly left with too much to do. If it's soft to heavy less so but I still see him as vulnerable. And I suspect the ground changes that result. And if they go too quick, and two of them take them on like AP and Ruby did on Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace we could just have a Sublimity year and we get a big surprse from something that's sensibly been kept out of the firing line.

So lets have a short 'Fishwife' pause (and that includes no comments about the 4 different results being how far Hurricane Fly wins!), and lets have a bit of debate about how we think the race will be run, and where the major players will want to be? And lets stop at their position coming round the final bend approaching the last rather than at the finishing line otherwise we'll never get two posts together without the word fishwife being used!!! :)
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We don't take no orders from no Oz-based, Flat-loving fishwife. :D

I've already made my position clear. HF will beat this lot regardless of the pace of the race. Of the principals, Jezki and TNO are the two who need to pour it on to have any chance, as neither has the tactical change-of-gear needed if it develops into a sprint. Our Conor doesn't quite fall into the same bracket, but he isn't far off it, and - perversely - MTOY wants a really strong clip......but in lesser company than he'll face here.

The rest of the field are makeweights, and won't be able to carry the principals deep enough into the race, to make any real impact on the pace, imo. Tactically, I'd expect Jezki or TNO to start winding it up halfway down the back, in the futile hope that they can get HF 'at it'.....this approach based on reading too much into his run in last year's race.
 
ajax trees down said:
Have u backed anything in the CH maruco?
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No not yet, for the reasoning in my post. I'm still to be convinced Hurricane Fly is a cast iron certainty as I see how he gets beat, but I also see how he wins. The going definitely comes into play also so my powder is likely to stay dry until the day and possibly as late as after The Supreme.
 
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Maxbet said:
Jezki will set the pace, with Barry Geraghty aboard.
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I also think that's the most likely Paul. It'll be interesting to see if he gets a soft lead though and if he does he becomes a player. He was the one I was alluding to that could 'do a Hardy'.
 
granger said:
Do you think he would have won last years supreme?

I don't think he would have been top 3
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Absolutely 100% he would have been in the top 3 in last years Supreme IMO.

In the previous Festival Bumper CF won and finished 6 lengths in front of TNO, who in turn finished 6 lengths in front of Jezki...

Would TNO have got past CF in the Supreme ?? I guess we'll never know but I think he would have had every chance.
 
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