Maxbet
Journeyman
- Joined
- Dec 31, 2013
- Messages
- 2,059
Really wish they would fix this site.......I enjoyed posting here but having to use a tor browser to get on is a pain in the ass.
Back in November as posted I was all for Hurricane Fly winning again. Now I am equally convinced Our Conor will beat him at Cheltenham.
I should add : If they ride him the right way.
In the Triumph Our Conor despite some novice jumping always looked happy.
The other day he was given an impossible task IMO
He tracked Hurricane Fly all the way round then tried to do him for speed......If it is possible that's not the way to beat the Fly.
Our Conor was always traveling well maybe even better than Hurricane Fly was 3 out.
A repeat of that at Cheltenham but ridden a few lengths ahead of Hurricane Fly could very well see a turn around.
If the ground is faster than it was the other day, which is very likely, and Our Conor can be real handy and kick from the front just after 2 out I doubt if anyone will catch him.
He certainly proved the other day that giving Hurricane Fly a race isn't beyond him
The worry is they finished in a heap but then again Captain Cee Bee is no mug in any ones book.He's one of the best travelers in the game so when it turned into a sprint they're hardly going to be putting miles between him and themselves.
I have the greatest respect for Hurricane Fly but this young horse may well be the best we have seen in a very long time. The trainers a canny lad and he'll strip a lot fitter come March than we have seen him turn up so far.
I am totally amazed MTOY and The New One are shorter in price.
The New One is good but a future Champion Hurdle winner? His defeat of Zarkander who failed next time to give any sort of race to Annie Power and two separate occasion is nothing to write home about. Beating Rockon Ruby who was having his pre chasing prep is even less inspiring.
He may well have beaten MTOY at Kempton but for a mistake but what has MTOY done to warrant better support than Our Conor? His 3 length defeat of Cockney Sparrow wouldn't have me rushing to back him.
The form these 2 have shown so far falls miles short of that shown by Hurricane Fly. They looked good kicking lumps out of each other but the Fly is not cockney sparrow or a below his best Zarkandar.
I honestly think its a 2sided coin. Either you are on the side of Hurricane Fly and Our Conor or your on the side of MTOY and The New One and the bookies have it wrong.
Nothing has changed as faras I can make out and the Champion Hurdle is a straight match between Our Conor and Hurricane Fly in my book.......and I'm covinced Our Conor will win in style as he did in the Triumph
To be frank Tanlic you may have convinced yourself about Our Conor but to me you sound as though your heart is ruling your head. For the record I think Hurricane Fly, My Tent Or Yours, The New One and even Jezki would have looked equally as happy in that Triumph hurdle. You start by suggesting it was an impossible task given to Our Conor at Leopardstown on Sunday and to track the Fly was not the way to beat him, then you sound out a semblance of doubt “If it is possible” but to be ridden a few lengths ahead of The Fly could very well see a turnaround at Cheltenham. I thought they tried that in the previous encounter at Leopardstown and he got beaten even more emphatically, in receipt of 3Lb.
You then mention that Our Conor was always travelling well maybe even better than The Fly was to three out, but you also vent a concern that they finished in a heap yet your race reading failed to realise that the race was run at a crawl, Captain Cee Bee’s proximity should have told you that. My reading was that Ruby remained motionless until he pulled off the rail on the bend approaching two out, on straightening out of the bend the sprint for home began with Our Conor only ever getting in front courtesy of a better jump at the last then The Fly surged ahead to the line.
Watch last year’s Triumph and you will see that Our Conor never needed to come off the bridle, this year he is having to race at top speed from two and three furlongs from home and to me he is a year too young to sustain it. I’m sorry but he isn’t going to get a repeat of is Triumph stroll, he is going to get a gruelling test of his metal and I really hope it doesn’t leave a mark on him because I see him being a real star of the future, and don’t forget he will be 2Lb worse off at Cheltenham.
As for your amazement at the prices of MTOY and The New One being shorter in price than Our Conors goes, well that is because your opinion and not that of the general one dictates those prices, and if you think the value is there then act upon it.
As for your reasoning behind that amazement well even that too could be argued, with weight differences, ground conditions and distances covered being variable, but just remember MTOY finished the same distances in front of Jezki in the Supreme as Our Conor has this season and he would be expected to make significant improvement too. I suspect like Our Conor too these other contestants won’t have been fully tuned up until March either.
As for your last two paragraphs well what can I say except that without Annie Power and the rest of the field; there is six permutations and that would mean you need to toss six coins, and after all that you flippantly suggest he will win 17 lengths on the bridle.
Definitely the heart or the pocket ruling the head.
:lol:
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