To be frank Tanlic you may have convinced yourself about Our Conor but to me you sound as though your heart is ruling your head. For the record I think Hurricane Fly, My Tent Or Yours, The New One and even Jezki would have looked equally as happy in that Triumph hurdle. You start by suggesting it was an impossible task given to Our Conor at Leopardstown on Sunday and to track the Fly was not the way to beat him, then you sound out a semblance of doubt “If it is possible” but to be ridden a few lengths ahead of The Fly could very well see a turnaround at Cheltenham. I thought they tried that in the previous encounter at Leopardstown and he got beaten even more emphatically, in receipt of 3Lb.
You then mention that Our Conor was always travelling well maybe even better than The Fly was to three out, but you also vent a concern that they finished in a heap yet your race reading failed to realise that the race was run at a crawl, Captain Cee Bee’s proximity should have told you that. My reading was that Ruby remained motionless until he pulled off the rail on the bend approaching two out, on straightening out of the bend the sprint for home began with Our Conor only ever getting in front courtesy of a better jump at the last then The Fly surged ahead to the line.
Watch last year’s Triumph and you will see that Our Conor never needed to come off the bridle, this year he is having to race at top speed from two and three furlongs from home and to me he is a year too young to sustain it. I’m sorry but he isn’t going to get a repeat of is Triumph stroll, he is going to get a gruelling test of his metal and I really hope it doesn’t leave a mark on him because I see him being a real star of the future, and don’t forget he will be 2Lb worse off at Cheltenham.
As for your amazement at the prices of MTOY and The New One being shorter in price than Our Conors goes, well that is because your opinion and not that of the general one dictates those prices, and if you think the value is there then act upon it.
As for your reasoning behind that amazement well even that too could be argued, with weight differences, ground conditions and distances covered being variable, but just remember MTOY finished the same distances in front of Jezki in the Supreme as Our Conor has this season and he would be expected to make significant improvement too. I suspect like Our Conor too these other contestants won’t have been fully tuned up until March either.
As for your last two paragraphs well what can I say except that without Annie Power and the rest of the field; there is six permutations and that would mean you need to toss six coins, and after all that you flippantly suggest he will win 17 lengths on the bridle.
Definitely the heart or the pocket ruling the head.
:lol:
That's an awful lot for me to handle before I die but I'll try my best.
On the subject of the pocket I dutched Our Conor and Hurricane Fly last year so if one is ruling my head then so is the other
On your point re tactics already being used I would take what we saw in their first encounter with a pinch of salt. It has little or no bearing on what will happen at Cheltenham.
Our Conor is a 5 year old and this season is not about running up wins. Like Katchit before him it is all about one day for Our Conor. You don't have to be a genius to work out that if have a young horse 100% at the start of the season you'll have a bag of bones come Cheltenham............Dessie Hughes if he's half the trainer I think he his will have left loads to work on.
I'd bet my last pound that if any instructions were given at Leopardstown it was win if you can but don't punish the horse.
The reason I think he can reverse placing if ridden the way I think he will be is what Rock on Ruby did to the Fly. If ROR had been held up I doubt if he'd have won that day. Tactics play a massive part in how a race unfolds and you simply don't try and outsprint a class horse like Hurricane Fly.....You turn the tap on from 2 or 3 out and force him to use up the petrol he usually keeps in reserve. Unless you know a better way of trying to beat him?
As far as bookmakers prices go, they act upon who shines first year after year. You can beat nothing and they will slash your odds by 2/3 as long as it's in a Champion Hurdle Trial. As long as you don't run again or if you run a respectable race they very seldom increase the odd son offer....Pluss punters dive in head first every time something wins one of these trials so you end up with a false market.
Yes MTOY has form with Jezki but on that run both would need to improve massively. Our Conor has shown he's not far behind the Fly, Jezki isn't that far behind them but has MTOY improved more than him??? I certainly don't think so.......he's very goodbut he'll never be good enough to win a Champion Hurdle unless it's in Wales. I think he has his limits and trials are what he is all about..Beaten by CV in the Supreme...........I think WM wont be too worried about him.
It's a dangerous game comparing for like you are doing.......especially a season apart. It's like planting 2 different trees and expecting them to reach the same height in a years time.
Nicky Henderson has been at the game along time and he might say he thinks a horse is a Champion Hurdle horse but if he has any doubts he'll have them100% for the trials and grab what he can....If they improve then fine if they don't a bird in the hand..........he's no See You Then this MTOY and AP isn't exactly confident he can win a CH either............He'll take in the Kingwell next money will be in the bank then cross fingers the race falls apart at Cheltenham and he never comes off the bridle......CF was all out from the 2nd last and he managed to get himoff the bridle after the last.. Imagine what some of these speedsters will do to him. Great Lay in running IMO.
I'm happy with my bets but my head tells me on the day the younger horse is the one who'll show them the way home..............
