Champion Hurdle 2014

I do have concerns that this is maybe just a year too soon but I wonder how many 5yos of OC's ability have tried. He was possibly the best ever winner of the Triumph, therefore possibly better than Persian War.
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Monksfield was a 5yo when beaten two lengths at level weights by Night Nurse and then dead-heating with the same horse in the 2m5f Templegate Hurdle at Aintree when getting 6lbs and ridden by one D T Hughes. He of course went on to win the next two Champion Hurdles. In the first of them, as a 6yo, he beat 8yo Sea Pigeon and 7yo Night Nurse 2L and 6L and then beat Night Nurse in the Templegate by 2L when conceding 5lbs, which goes to show how much improvement is possible between 5 and 6. It also goes to show how underrated Monksfield was.

That's the calibre of horse Our Conor will have to be if he's to win this year's race. He looked fit at Leopardstown but his coat was dull, so I'd expect some improvement, but I don't think it will be enough to improve past the Fly this year.

[By the way Monksfield ran 10 times over hurdles and three times on the flat before Cheltenham the season of his first Champion Hurdle attempt, and twice more over hurdles and once on the flat after the Festival. Seventeen runs in all. They did things differently then.]
 
Double Handful said:
Well there is no doubt he is some horse. As Euro suggests, there is definitely a class angle. In in his 3 Champion Hurdle Runs the 2 best horses he faced in were ROR and Peddlers.

So really only one top class challenger each time.

He's going to face 3 or 4 top class challengers this year.
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Menorah and Zarkander at the time considered class horses. Supposedly won very hot renewals of supreme and triumph
 
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Add to that there were plenty on here saying HF would be beaten at Xmas.

Excuses after - Jezki needs further, OC got tired, OC is a spring horse, OC will improve 10lbs at Cheltenham.

Whatever he beats, excuses follow
 
BigTea said:
Menorah and Zarkander at the time considered class horses. Supposedly won very hot renewals of supreme and triumph
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It is a fair point Big T. I'll admit it's much easier looking back in Hindsight saying the horses he beat were not of a certain class. And I'm sure during those years there were posters like myself on here opposing HF with some of the horses you've named.

Ironically, I backed HF last 3 years in CH and nothing else. But I was never confident in running last year. And the interview with Ruby I posted above confirms to me HF just isn't fully comfortable round Cheltenham.
 
Double Handful said:
Well there is no doubt he is some horse. As Euro suggests, there is definitely a class angle. In in his 3 Champion Hurdle Runs the 2 best horses he faced in were ROR and Peddlers.

So really only one top class challenger each time.

He's going to face 3 or 4 top class challengers this year.
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What of the fabled Binocular?

There are a few on here who said this horse was Pegasus at the time.....until Hurricane Fly started serving him his scrawny arse on a plate, every time they faced each other. Binocular is now conveniently dismissed as over-rated, by some of those who now want to talk-down Hurricane Fly's form.

Binocular now bad, Peddlers now bad, Rock on Ruby bad, everything bad, blah, blah fu*cking blah.

I've heard it all before.

To be fair, I have some sympathy with those who have track concerns, but there were definite mitigating factors in both 2012 and 2013, and there is absolutely no reason why he should not give his running.

If he does, it's game-over. Even if he doesn't, he's still got the class and guts to win.
 
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Lets not bring Zarkandar and Menorah in to this. No one in their right mind would have thought they were Champion horses.
As for excuses, lets hope we don't get the same sh*te as when ROR beat the fly a couple of years ago. Bound to get age has caught up with the old boy.

He will give his running, it simply won't be good enough this year.

You ruddy pupils will learn.........eventually.
 
Grasshopper said:
If you can name six threats to HF, without me soiling myself with laughter, you will win a scented candle.

THE FEAR
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Our Conor/ The New One /Annie power/ Jezki / My Tent or yours/ OK there,s 5
Go and pick out a pair of frilly knickers.
 
Grasshopper said:
What of the fabled Binocular?

Binocular now bad, Peddlers now bad, Rock on Ruby bad, everything bad, blah, blah fu*cking blah.

I've heard it all before.
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Fair point. As I've already admitted above, the class angle is very easy to look back on in hindsight. Hold my hands up there.

And for the record, I'm not trying to get into some hate the Champ club or anything like that.... Backed him last 3 years in CH. I highly rate his overall form and class. And I'm not meaning to come across like I'm taking a stance of opposing him and nothing else. Not the case.

I just really fancy TNO this year and when I was analyzing it the main negative I had with HF against TNO was the Cheltenham track.

If the race was at Leoparstown I'd back HF all day.
 
TNO's form at Cheltenham

Has beaten -Village Vic 3 lengths, beaten by Fishers Cross, Rule the World 4l (world hurdle horse), Zarkandar by 6l. Annie has beaten him by 8 subsequently, albeit over further.

The neptune form can be viewed as questionable given that he outpaced stayers.

TNO will win Aintree hurdle if sound and Mullins doesnt target it heavily
 
Frankel said:
Lets not bring Zarkandar and Menorah in to this. No one in their right mind would have thought they were Champion horses.
As for excuses, lets hope we don't get the same sh*te as when ROR beat the fly a couple of years ago. Bound to get age has caught up with the old boy.

He will give his running, it simply won't be good enough this year.

You ruddy pupils will learn.........eventually.
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This is ridiculous, what has TNO done to justify being thought as a CH horse and these weren't. I expect these type of comments will be levelled about TNO when he's in an Oscar Whiskey type limbo in the future
 
BigTea said:
This is ridiculous, what has TNO done to justify being thought as a CH horse and these weren't. I expect these type of comments will be levelled about TNO when he's in an Oscar Whiskey type limbo in the future
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Kind of contradicting yourself there Big T . You say it's ridiculous that TNO is even thought of as a CH horse if Zarkandar wasn't. Yet TNO already beat Zarkandar.

I'm open to debate weather TNO should be joint FAV. There are a lot of good cases made by posters on here for why he should not be fav.

But to say he shouldn't even be considered is a bit ridiculous.
 
Tanlic said:
That's an awful lot for me to handle before I die but I'll try my best.

On the subject of the pocket I dutched Our Conor and Hurricane Fly last year so if one is ruling my head then so is the other :)

On your point re tactics already being used I would take what we saw in their first encounter with a pinch of salt. It has little or no bearing on what will happen at Cheltenham.

Our Conor is a 5 year old and this season is not about running up wins. Like Katchit before him it is all about one day for Our Conor. You don't have to be a genius to work out that if have a young horse 100% at the start of the season you'll have a bag of bones come Cheltenham............Dessie Hughes if he's half the trainer I think he his will have left loads to work on.

I'd bet my last pound that if any instructions were given at Leopardstown it was win if you can but don't punish the horse.

The reason I think he can reverse placing if ridden the way I think he will be is what Rock on Ruby did to the Fly. If ROR had been held up I doubt if he'd have won that day. Tactics play a massive part in how a race unfolds and you simply don't try and outsprint a class horse like Hurricane Fly.....You turn the tap on from 2 or 3 out and force him to use up the petrol he usually keeps in reserve. Unless you know a better way of trying to beat him?

As far as bookmakers prices go, they act upon who shines first year after year. You can beat nothing and they will slash your odds by 2/3 as long as it's in a Champion Hurdle Trial. As long as you don't run again or if you run a respectable race they very seldom increase the odd son offer....Pluss punters dive in head first every time something wins one of these trials so you end up with a false market.

Yes MTOY has form with Jezki but on that run both would need to improve massively. Our Conor has shown he's not far behind the Fly, Jezki isn't that far behind them but has MTOY improved more than him??? I certainly don't think so.......he's very goodbut he'll never be good enough to win a Champion Hurdle unless it's in Wales. I think he has his limits and trials are what he is all about..Beaten by CV in the Supreme...........I think WM wont be too worried about him.

It's a dangerous game comparing for like you are doing.......especially a season apart. It's like planting 2 different trees and expecting them to reach the same height in a years time.

Nicky Henderson has been at the game along time and he might say he thinks a horse is a Champion Hurdle horse but if he has any doubts he'll have them100% for the trials and grab what he can....If they improve then fine if they don't a bird in the hand..........he's no See You Then this MTOY and AP isn't exactly confident he can win a CH either............He'll take in the Kingwell next money will be in the bank then cross fingers the race falls apart at Cheltenham and he never comes off the bridle......CF was all out from the 2nd last and he managed to get himoff the bridle after the last.. Imagine what some of these speedsters will do to him. Great Lay in running IMO.

I'm happy with my bets but my head tells me on the day the younger horse is the one who'll show them the way home..............
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Here’s an awful lot for you to handle before you die....of embarrassment that is, as Our Conor drops out tamely up the hill, but try your best....

Once again you flippantly brush aside fact in exchange for fantasy...the plane boss...the plane, no Tatoo, sorry Tanlic....it’s the Fly....the Fly. Your hearts definitely ruling your head if you think you can take the previous two running’s with a pinch of salt and you think they have no bearing on what will happen at Cheltenham, a dangerous and facetious approach to deciphering what may or may not occur, a purely ignorant and conceited way of thinking if you ask me. Obviously penned to get a response....

If Dessie Hughes is half the trainer I think, then Our Conor’s last two runs will have been spent trying to work out how “if possible” (your words) to beat the Mighty Fly, how to beat the Fly on 3Lb and 2Lb worse terms come Cheltenham. On a course that is made for speed and stamina, one that the Fly has won on at the highest level twice, one that Our Conor has neither run on or in my opinion will act on, as well as he did on the stiffer Old Course that he ran on in the Triumph hurdle last year.

Our Conor is only a 5 year old and until this year had not had cause to be rousted to top speed, especially against the very best of the older generation and you don't have to be a genius to work out that if you have any horse 100% at the start of the season and you want to pick up races on the way to the champion, then they are only going to be primed enough to accomplish that that the trainers and the horses ability combined genius, merits. Arise....Hurricane Fly... Arise.... Willie mullins.

You say you’d bet your last pound that if any instructions were given at Leopardstown, it would be; win if you can but don't punish the horse, I’d bet those instructions were given to all the runners, hence the much easier pace set by CCB. Make no mistake about it, there is no way Our Conor will have been sent out unfit, especially after injury. And I remind you that connections were very bullish that their horse would perform well enough to justify the confidence they exuded prerace, but alas he fell short and what’s more he actually showed his own weakness, that of being a short runner in a driving finish, oh I forgot.... twice. In that respect he actually looks like a bag of weak 5 year old bones.

You then boldly suggest that you think he can reverse places if ridden the way you think he will be....by doing what Rock on Ruby did to the Fly in 2012. Well it seems you are doing a lot of thinking but with little or no reasoning. Ruby Walsh admits he rode a stinker in 2012, 2013 sore a 10 length reversal of that result under a more mindful ride, a ride ridden ever so similar by Rock On Ruby to 2012, but one that fell some way short due in the main to a more tactically aware Walsh, allowing a more straight forward Fly to show he had plenty of petrol in reserve and an engine capable of using it when needed. Did you forget last year.....

You also say as far as bookmakers prices go that they act upon who shines first, year after year, that the shiners can beat anything and they will slash the odds by 2/3 points so long as it's in a Champion Hurdle Trial. And as long as you don't run again or if you only run a respectable race that they very seldom increase the odds on offer....Well I must remind you that Our Conor was 3/1 fav at the start of the season, he’s now 6’s after only running respectably if somewhat disappointedly but admittedly against one of them shining stars, but I do concede you were partly right... it had to be more than once.

You then knock me and say It's a dangerous game to compare like for like as I am doing.......especially a season apart, that It's like planting two different trees and expecting them to reach the same height in a year’s time. You then go on to do precisely that, expressing your somewhat blinkered thinking, this time about MTOY crossed with Jezki and how they tie in with the Fly, you claim that MTOY will have to improve massively. He’ll have to improve you say, without a tangible measure, just a Tanlic one, but the other....Jezki under two different but arguably unlucky rides, you admit is not that far behind. Make your mind up because you don’t seem to apply that same logic to Our Conor, because one tree has been planted in Ireland the other in England, one has been put in the shadow by a smaller horse the other has grown in the sunshine. And for the record, a lot of people think Champagne fever should be trying his hand here but obviously Willie thinks it futile. Must be a Fly in the ointment....

Nicky Henderson has been at this game along time and I think he can safely assume he has a horse good enough to win a Champion Hurdle because let’s face it, he has trained more of them than his compatriots and if he knows he can have them 100% for the trials because there are several months to go before the big one and that the valuable hurdling lessons learned practically schooling them will benefit the horse before he freshens it up, then who’s to argue. So I ask you... would you take it that if McCoy chose MTOY over Jezki and given he has ridden them both, that as a guage, there would be slightly more credence to it than your pure guess work Tanlic, if so I would suggest you wait a while...

Dear Tanlic, you have seen The Fly demonstrate speed as well as stamina in his last two runs, yet you simply brush aside the fact that he has brushed aside everything before him. You demonstrate unreasoned arguments that we are expected to believe about the twice conquered Our Conor, arguments that anyone can see are purely your wishful THINKING, and lastly you expect us to join you in imagining MTOY is a great lay in Running after showing us how wild your imagination can be. Nahhh, Sorry “oh....look boss..... the Fly.....the Fly”
:p
 
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Double Handful said:
Kind of contradicting yourself there Big T . You say it's ridiculous that TNO is even thought of as a CH horse if Zarkandar wasn't. Yet TNO already beat Zarkandar.

I'm open to debate weather TNO should be joint FAV. There are a lot of good cases made by posters on here for why he should not be fav.

But to say he shouldn't even be considered is a bit ridiculous.
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Probably didn't come across properly. I was trying to point out its ridiculous that the horses mentioned were never CH horses at ONE stage when at a time they achieved at least as much of the current crop.

Right now TNO, MTOYs etc are CH horses but if they are running in staying distance races in the future, with hindsight it will be very easy for me to dismiss them like Menorah and Zarkander have just been dismissed
 
BigTea said:
Probably didn't come across properly. I was trying to point out its ridiculous that the horses mentioned were never CH horses at ONE stage when at a time they achieved at least as much of the current crop.

Right now TNO, MTOYs etc are CH horses but if they are running in staying distance races in the future, with hindsight it will be very easy for me to dismiss them like Menorah and Zarkander have just been dismissed
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Probably being a bit harsh on Menorah, it was just the fact I didn't fancy his chances at all. Zarkandar lacks/lacked any kind of boot, tho obviously a decent horse.
The similar arguments made against TNO regards the field he beat in the Neptune could have been relevant, until the race at Kempton where he proved he's hardly slow. Unless you think MTOY is a slow boat. I somehow can't see MTOY running over staying trips as you mentioned.
 
granger said:
TNO's form at Cheltenham

Has beaten -Village Vic 3 lengths, beaten by Fishers Cross, Rule the World 4l (world hurdle horse), Zarkandar by 6l. Annie has beaten him by 8 subsequently, albeit over further.

The neptune form can be viewed as questionable given that he outpaced stayers.

TNO will win Aintree hurdle if sound and Mullins doesnt target it heavily
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Surely in recent years the Neputune has thrown up more Champion Hurdle winners & contenders than the Supreme. Hardy Eustace won 2 CH after the Neptune and ROR was 1st and 2nd in 2 CH after Neptune. Wasn't there also some talk that Simonsig was going to have a tilt at CH before he eventually went chasing.

Only Supreme winner in past 15 years I can remember winning CH after a Supreme was Brave Inca. And that was 2 years later. Recent Supreme winners and indeed placed horses seem to throw out more chasers recently.

Champagne Fever, Al Ferof, SS, CC, Menorah etc...

I think you are being a bit dismissive of Neptune form granger.. I think recent history shows it can be a huge pointer to the CH.
 
The mighty Istabraq was also a Neptune (or whatever it was called then) winner wasn't he?


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The Neptune is a great trial. Has been for a long long time. And it's hardly surprising given a Champion Hurdle is often just as much a test of stamina as it is of speed.

In addition The Fly supporters running the argument TNO can't win because he only beat this 3 lengths and that 2 lengths are absolutely hilarious.

I'm starting to wonder which camp is really suffering from THE FEAR!
 
Four Triumph winners won Champion Hurdles

Katchit
Kribensis
Persian War
Clair Soleil

Three Supreme winners won Champion Hurdles

Brave Inca
Hors La Loi III
Bula

Two Neptune winners won Champion Hurdles

Hardy Eustace
Istabraq
Only Katchit of the Triumph winners won on the new course


Triumph placed that placed in Champion Hurdle

Boxer
Oh So Risky
See You Then
Countrywide Flame
Zarkandar
Zaynar
Celestial Halo
Oh So Risky

Supreme placed that placed in Champion Hurdle

Menorah
Flyingbolt
Binocular
Chorus

Neptune placed that placed in Champion Hurdle

Peddlers Cross
Dawn Run
Rock On Ruby
Danoli
 
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Maruco said:
The Neptune is a great trial. Has been for a long long time. And it's hardly surprising given a Champion Hurdle is often just as much a test of stamina as it is of speed.

In addition The Fly supporters running the argument TNO can't win because he only beat this 3 lengths and that 2 lengths are absolutely hilarious.

I'm starting to wonder which camp is really suffering from THE FEAR!
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:nono:

For the last time, fishwives are not permitted to use the term THE FEAR, because they are clueless as to its context.
 
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