Champion Hurdle 2014

thanks ..will see how things go...

i can't wait for next tuesday..the race will come second to the aftermath on this thread..just kiddin ..but it should be an interesting read post CH
 
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cheers Col

tbh i wouldn't have had much to offer..not been keeping with the game for a good few weeks now..work related issues..but am eager for next week

weather forecast looks real good
 
Thousand stars left in as well. If that 12 were to line up this would be the best champion hurdle field I've ever seen.
 
Desert Orchid said:
According to the Weekender, HF was backed from 9/4 into 13/8 on the day last year.
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That's correct BUT he was artificially high in the morning due to the obvious ultra competitive early morning market. He was trading around 3.05 on Betfair in the morning but firms held an almighty arb.

Speaking of which the market has really come alive today with the decs. There is bombs up on the lay side and to my surprise HF now shades favouritism.

VC bet on the fav

11/8 HF & TNO
9/2 OC
6/1 MTOY
25/1 bar
 
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An interesting 24 hours!!!

Ok I'm finally going to nail my colours to the mast. The going is likely to be good to soft at worst and Captain Cee Bee has been supplemented to make the pace, both of which I believe are much against Hurricane Fly. With softer ground and no likely pacemaker (I never believed Jezki was going to be sacrificed as a pacemaker), I believe HF would have won but not now and I can't back him. In fact I actually believe the Fishwives that have been shouting 'plaice' lay will be rubbing their hands at the latest developments! :D

So who benefits? Surely the trainers of the other four main contenders will be delighted at this news. Of the four I'd be most concerned about Our Connor seeing it out, and I suspect he'll be first off the bridle. I don't see him placing and probably finishes fourth or fifth. I'm firmly in the 'next year' camp.

That leaves me with MTOY, TNO, and Jezki to fight it out. A year on and I think most likely MTOY and Jezki finish in exactly the same way as last year. MTOY getting first run and Jezki needing another half a furlong to get to him. I do think Jezki is a cracking e/w bet though and should Geraghty ride him closer to the pace he has a squeak and can reverse form with MTOY. So that leaves me with The New One who I'm absolutely confident will reverse Kempton form with MTOY up the hill. I'm not sure he'll beat him a long way but I do think he'll out-battle MTOY.

So for me it's likely I will back The New One to win with a bit of each way cover on Jezki, but it won't be until the morning of the race because.............

.............I think JP has pulled a master stroke of timing. While Willie has been talking to the press, JP outmanoeuvred him almost immediately after Willie revealed his 'final' plans.

But Willie still has cards to play. I suspect until JP supplemented CCB he was quietly confident of a Fly win because he would have felt that nothing would take them on at the pace that MTOY and TNO definitely need. And if that were the case the Fly was likely to be able easily lay up and sprint away from at them business end. Willie knows the strengths and weaknesses of his own horse and he knows the Fly cannot afford to be off the bridle anywhere before the home turn, and now that's a very real possibility. In fact if anything it's highly likely Ruby will be scrubbing him along when the pace lifts. So, whatever he thinks of Hurricane Fly, he still wants to win the race, and if Willie recognises this and he does run something else it's almost an admission that he thinks it's unlikely the Fly will win.

So that takes us to what he potentially does with Un des Sceaux or Annie Power, (Thousand Stars just isn't a player). If, as has been suggested, he intended leaving UDS out of his plans because he thought he could either beat the Fly or his running style would be to the detriment of the Fly, he surely has to rethink now. His decision is whether he genuinely thinks the horse is good enough or not. He also becomes an ew alternative to Jezki because Willie won't send him as an allsoran. And if he doesn't think UDS is up to it he could yet still switch AP back from the Stayers (also possibly to JP's benefit!). Given Ruby's comments that no gelding can give her 7lb's and there is no doubt over the stiff 2 mile trip quite frankly if you were Ricci, after this latest development, you'd want to give Willie a very big nudge back towards the Champion Hurdle. Particularly as a tilt at the Champion was the single reason for keeping her over hurdles. If that should happen she's my bet. I believe she wins the Champion Hurdle off a quick or generous pace, and whilst I still think it unlikely she'll run in the race, it must be back under consideration.

Convoluted I know, but I'm finally confident I know how I'm going to play the race pending final declarations, but not as confident as I am in the fact I'll be forever more branded 'Chief Fishwife'!!! :D
 
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McManus has horses with Mullins, surely they are on good terms and it wouldnt be unreasonable to ask a simple question like is Un De Cided going to run because I'm thinking of stumping up £20,000 to supplement CCB to put some pace to the race.

Got to love these people who think HF will get out paced, didn't you watch last years race... ROR took them along at a crazy pace, The Fly looked to get out paced when a four length gap opened up just as Grandouet fell, thats because Ruby was content to wait until they were climbing before making a move to close, he quickly came back on the bridle after they crested the rise, he then cruised the rest of the race and put it to bed up the hill.
 
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reet hard said:
Max
The Neptune was run over a half a mile further and on very different ground to the Supreme, so it's pointless making comparisons over the last 2m of each race. Furthermore, the Champion Hurdle (AIR) was never more than fractionally over 2 secs in front of the Supreme, and the notion of a pace collapse is complete bollox (not your bollox admittedly, but entirely spurious nevertheless).
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The Supreme field led the Champion by slightly over two seconds for almost three flights when Noel Fehily decides to pour it on big time. Over the next three flights the pace of the Champion field gains and surpasses the Supreme by over three seconds. You make it sound like its just a case of one halting and bumf they caught up. You really have to appreciate what a monumental effort it takes to gain 2 lengths push on a further 3 and then sustain it whilst all the time the Supreme field were fairly tanking along themselves. It was the Champion field that were bolloxed through going far too quick, Ruby alludes to this in his reasoning of The Fly's running and that he made a mistake in following them.
 
Maxbet said:
The Supreme field led the Champion by slightly over two seconds for almost three flights when Noel Fehily decides to pour it on big time. Over the next three flights the pace of the Champion field gains and surpasses the Supreme by over three seconds. You make it sound like its just a case of one halting and bumf they caught up. You really have to appreciate what a monumental effort it takes to gain 2 lengths push on a further 3 and then sustain it whilst all the time the Supreme field were fairly tanking along themselves. It was the Champion field that were bolloxed through going far too quick, Ruby alludes to this in his reasoning of The Fly's running and that he made a mistake in following them.
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Whilst the facts are true there's one problem with the logic Max. What did Hurricane Fly beat last year? Rock on Ruby and Grandouet wouldn't get close to three or four of these. The Fly was able to come off the bridle and still win because of what he was up against. This year, on almost certain genuine good to soft, if he comes off the bridle there are at least two horses I believe can beat him, possibly a third, and it could get even worse if one or two of his own stablemates turn up.
 
Maruco said:
Rock on Ruby and Grandouet wouldn't get close to three or four of these.
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Rock On Ruby is a past winner - beating the Fly. If the Fly wasn't right that year you could equally argue ROR wasn't right, or didn't get a good pace ride, last year.

Grandouet, imo, at his was as talented as any recent champion hurdler but Cheltenham wasn't his course.

I'd be asking would TNO or MTOY be good enough to get close to Grandouet or ROR.
 
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