An interesting 24 hours!!!
Ok I'm finally going to nail my colours to the mast. The going is likely to be good to soft at worst and Captain Cee Bee has been supplemented to make the pace, both of which I believe are much against Hurricane Fly. With softer ground and no likely pacemaker (I never believed Jezki was going to be sacrificed as a pacemaker), I believe HF would have won but not now and I can't back him. In fact I actually believe the Fishwives that have been shouting 'plaice' lay will be rubbing their hands at the latest developments!
So who benefits? Surely the trainers of the other four main contenders will be delighted at this news. Of the four I'd be most concerned about Our Connor seeing it out, and I suspect he'll be first off the bridle. I don't see him placing and probably finishes fourth or fifth. I'm firmly in the 'next year' camp.
That leaves me with MTOY, TNO, and Jezki to fight it out. A year on and I think most likely MTOY and Jezki finish in exactly the same way as last year. MTOY getting first run and Jezki needing another half a furlong to get to him. I do think Jezki is a cracking e/w bet though and should Geraghty ride him closer to the pace he has a squeak and can reverse form with MTOY. So that leaves me with The New One who I'm absolutely confident will reverse Kempton form with MTOY up the hill. I'm not sure he'll beat him a long way but I do think he'll out-battle MTOY.
So for me it's likely I will back The New One to win with a bit of each way cover on Jezki, but it won't be until the morning of the race because.............
.............I think JP has pulled a master stroke of timing. While Willie has been talking to the press, JP outmanoeuvred him almost immediately after Willie revealed his 'final' plans.
But Willie still has cards to play. I suspect until JP supplemented CCB he was quietly confident of a Fly win because he would have felt that nothing would take them on at the pace that MTOY and TNO definitely need. And if that were the case the Fly was likely to be able easily lay up and sprint away from at them business end. Willie knows the strengths and weaknesses of his own horse and he knows the Fly cannot afford to be off the bridle anywhere before the home turn, and now that's a very real possibility. In fact if anything it's highly likely Ruby will be scrubbing him along when the pace lifts. So, whatever he thinks of Hurricane Fly, he still wants to win the race, and if Willie recognises this and he does run something else it's almost an admission that he thinks it's unlikely the Fly will win.
So that takes us to what he potentially does with Un des Sceaux or Annie Power, (Thousand Stars just isn't a player). If, as has been suggested, he intended leaving UDS out of his plans because he thought he could either beat the Fly or his running style would be to the detriment of the Fly, he surely has to rethink now. His decision is whether he genuinely thinks the horse is good enough or not. He also becomes an ew alternative to Jezki because Willie won't send him as an allsoran. And if he doesn't think UDS is up to it he could yet still switch AP back from the Stayers (also possibly to JP's benefit!). Given Ruby's comments that no gelding can give her 7lb's and there is no doubt over the stiff 2 mile trip quite frankly if you were Ricci, after this latest development, you'd want to give Willie a very big nudge back towards the Champion Hurdle. Particularly as a tilt at the Champion was the single reason for keeping her over hurdles. If that should happen she's my bet. I believe she wins the Champion Hurdle off a quick or generous pace, and whilst I still think it unlikely she'll run in the race, it must be back under consideration.
Convoluted I know, but I'm finally confident I know how I'm going to play the race pending final declarations, but not as confident as I am in the fact I'll be forever more branded 'Chief Fishwife'!!!
Mullins has history at big meetings, he did it at Royal Ascot with a horse whose name I forget.
