Champion Hurdle 2014

TNO has plenty of speed. he hit the last in the bula and then took lengths out of zarkandar in a matter of seconds.

zarkandar isn't HF, OC or MTOY though. and he probably can't afford similar mistakes on tuesday.
 
Nothing wrong with TNO's 2m form. You only need to look at the Cbristmas Hurdle to appreciate that.

But he is a grinder at 2m......somewhat in the ROR mould.....and will only act as a tow for something else in the race. Our Conor is another I expect to come off the bridle before others, as he strikes me as a horse that will quite comfortably get longer trips. He's also a stout, robust type, and whilst I'm sure he'll travel well, he doesn't (imo) have the required change of gear.

There's also a great deal to like about Jezki. I suspect he is probably quicker than either of TNO and OC, but he goes from bowling-along to off-the-bridle, a little too quickly for my tastes.

Which leaves MTOY and Hurricane Fly.

MTOY is a horse I have a lot of time for, having tipped him early for both the Betfair and the Supreme. He is undoubtedly hugely talented, and whilst I've over-played his flaws here for the hoot, I genuinely do have concerns about whether he will put it all in. If I'm wrong on that score, I can see him going very close.

As for Hurricane Fly, I can see no evidence that he has lost any of his ability, and I think there are mitigating factors for the 2012 defeat (not 100% fit) and his allegedly questionable win in 2013 (Walsh made too much use of him mid-race).

I still think this horse is criminally under-rated, and I sincerely hope that Walsh's prediction of a demolition comes to pass. It might help convince the sceptics.

I would wish supporters of the opposition 'good luck' - but I wouldn't mean it, and you'd know that. I want HF to annihilate them, and I'm happy to admit it.

Beware the wave. :cool:
 
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My comments re TNO not having the speed for 2 miles seem to have been taken out of context.

It wasn't put forward as an argument against his chances.

It was fact. If you check you'll see the Neptune reins start shaking at just about the same time as that speedball Taquin De Seuil's do. Okay he does pick up well but...

He was then seemingly outstayed by Zarkandar at Aintree and appears to be the next, banished to the intermediate ground, Oscar Whiskey to me.

Ignore the Aintree defeat of his Kempton conquerer (agree he'd have won without the mistake), what genuine 2 miler has he ever beaten.


Grass reads it pretty much like me apart from his underestimating Our Conor and overestimating the G1.5 Jezki.

But financially I'd prefer a MTOY, HF 1-2 rather than the reverse but that would still suffice.

I am perennial fence sitter but The New One won't be placed.
 
wilsonl said:
My comments re TNO not having the speed for 2 miles seem to have been taken out of context.

It wasn't put forward as an argument against his chances.

It was fact. If you check you'll see the Neptune reins start shaking at just about the same time as that speedball Taquin De Seuil's do. Okay he does pick up well but...

He was then seemingly outstayed by Zarkandar at Aintree and appears to be the next, banished to the intermediate ground, Oscar Whiskey to me.

Ignore the Aintree defeat of his Kempton conquerer (agree he'd have won without the mistake), what genuine 2 miler has he ever beaten.


Grass reads it pretty much like me apart from his underestimating Our Conor and overestimating the G1.5 Jezki.

But financially I'd prefer a MTOY, HF 1-2 rather than the reverse but that would still suffice.

I am perennial fence sitter but The New One won't be placed.
Click to expand...

You have just Abused TNO and place layed him, yet have Tent ( quote 'agree he'd have won without the mistake') as the winner. Go take a sip of scotch and have a rethink :cool:

:D
 
wilsonl said:
It wasn't put forward as an argument against his chances.

It was fact. If you check you'll see the Neptune reins start shaking at just about the same time as that speedball Taquin De Seuil's do. Okay he does pick up well but...
I am perennial fence sitter but The New One won't be placed.
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"He does pick up well but ..." But.... But ... !?! Are you kidding me?!

You can say what you want about the early pace in the Neptune, at the business end of the race TNO showed what he's all about.

At the festival last year in their respective races, From the back of the second last hurdle to the line:

Hurricane Fly - 43.20
The New One - 38.45

Whatever about varying opinions on the winner I think you'd be cracked to place lay TNO. He finishes all his races so strongly!
 
Double Handful said:
"He does pick up well but ..." But.... But ... !?! Are you kidding me?!

You can say what you want about the early pace in the Neptune, at the business end of the race TNO showed what he's all about.

At the festival last year in their respective races, From the back of the second last hurdle to the line:

Hurricane Fly - 43.20
The New One - 38.45

Whatever about varying opinions on the winner I think you'd be cracked to place lay TNO. He finishes all his races so strongly!
Click to expand...

I hope you are right son, lot of time for NTD but...


Sprinting away from Rule The World isn't going to win this race.
 
Hurricane Fly came of a pace six seconds faster throughout, the middle race fractions were crazy they were paddling up the run in. TNO came of stroll round Prestbury and only raced a sprint finish. He will be paddling after this Champion hurdle the winner will be the gutsiest most economical energy conserver and the neatest hurdler.

MTOY, Hurricane Fly, Jezki the rest will be some where in the halls of history...
 
Grasshopper said:
Nothing wrong with TNO's 2m form. You only need to look at the Cbristmas Hurdle to appreciate that.

But he is a grinder at 2m......somewhat in the ROR mould.....and will only act as a tow for something else in the race. Our Conor is another I expect to come off the bridle before others, as he strikes me as a horse that will quite comfortably get longer trips. He's also a stout, robust type, and whilst I'm sure he'll travel well, he doesn't (imo) have the required change of gear.

There's also a great deal to like about Jezki. I suspect he is probably quicker than either of TNO and OC, but he goes from bowling-along to off-the-bridle, a little too quickly for my tastes.

Which leaves MTOY and Hurricane Fly.

MTOY is a horse I have a lot of time for, having tipped him early for both the Betfair and the Supreme. He is undoubtedly hugely talented, and whilst I've over-played his flaws here for the hoot, I genuinely do have concerns about whether he will put it all in. If I'm wrong on that score, I can see him going very close.

As for Hurricane Fly, I can see no evidence that he has lost any of his ability, and I think there are mitigating factors for the 2012 defeat (not 100% fit) and his allegedly questionable win in 2013 (Walsh made too much use of him mid-race).

I still think this horse is criminally under-rated, and I sincerely hope that Walsh's prediction of a demolition comes to pass. It might help convince the sceptics.

I would wish supporters of the opposition 'good luck' - but I wouldn't mean it, and you'd know that. I want HF to annihilate them, and I'm happy to admit it.

Beware the wave. :cool:
Click to expand...

Nice to see a bout of honesty breaking through all the other gunge, Grass.:lol:
Agree with much of what you say, but widely at variance with a few of your points.
TNO is a grinder and, despite the stable bluster, they know that and he was ridden to that purpose in the Xmas Hurdle. Not for the first time, his jockey didn't pull it off and you'd have to question his ability to do so on the bigger stage, either.
Our Conor does have a change of gear, showed it in the Triumph and both his races this season, but none of those races would lead to believe he has the stamina to see out a CH just yet, and he'd be my place lay - if I had one.
Had MTOY down as a stone-cold banker in the Supreme, but (imo) he just didn't last home, a view endorsed by Frank Berry, who said after the race that Aintree would suit him better. Initially disappointed that he didn't pick up better in the Xmas Hurdle (which he won on merit, imo), but AP was quite impressed so obviously saw something we didn't. Once again Nicky alluded to his questionable stamina, when saying it was only Kempton but very hard work on the ground.
The Fly won't have a problem, whatever the pace or ground, but they were relative boats he beat last year, and he'll probably need to up his game against this field.
For mine, MTOY has been brought along for the past 2 years with this one race in mind, ground, field and likely pace look like being in his favour, and I'll be disappointed if he's beaten.
 
Tuesday's RP headline is apparently going to be "Thank God It's Flyday"

I'm thinking Wednesdays will be "Fly's Undone"
 
It's going to be Bob Dylan.

"Here comes the story of the Hurricane... the champion of the world..."
 
Geraghty at a preview night last night said he expected CCB to take off with TNO and then HF following and the rest following in behind. Seems in contrast to the tactics AP suggested for Jezki previously


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BigTea said:
Geraghty at a preview night last night said he expected CCB to take off with TNO and then HF following and the rest following in behind. Seems in contrast to the tactics AP suggested for Jezki previously


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Click to expand...

The New One will sit at the back if there's pace
 
Dubious editing there from Grey.
""Here comes the story of the Hurricane... the champion of the world..."

The missing words from the song are "he could have been" which of course would then be appropriate.
 
But financially I'd prefer a MTOY, HF 1-2 rather than the reverse but that would still suffice.

I am perennial fence sitter but The New One won't be placed.
Click to expand...

I cant work out the above. I have come to the conclusion that MTOY has no chance. He only just beat a "grinder" and a "stayer" over the sharp 2m Kempton track. Ok we will forget the distance back to the third and the fact that the field was destroyed in emphatic fashion, with nothing ordinary finishing 3 lengths away say. The christmas hurdle form is clearly hopeless and despite the fact that he settled and travelled better than ever before, it was a very poor performance by him
 
The North Wales jury is in the 'happy to admit they don't know' camp.

MTOY - trained by a master who would give you his last nine bob note. Doesn't not act at Cheltenham but there is evidence that he is better on a flat track.

TNO - opposite of MTOY in nearly every way. Very much the stayer with a single burst of acceleration.

OC - best Triumph winner for a while but no racecourse evidence that he's bridged the gap to Championship level yet. Maybe next year.

HF - likely not as good at Cheltenham as in Ireland but good enough to overcome that twice already. A purely personal view that a repeat of the level he showed to beat Peddlers Cross would be enough this time round but not certain he can do that.

For once, no reliable comparison of Irish and UK form so I'm going for TNO to be best of British and HF best of Irish and I think that the current odds are about right. My heart is definitely with the Fly but the head may insist on a saver on TNO.
 
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