Champion Hurdle 2014

Easier to ride a nice even pace from the front with only your internal clock to guide you. When you've some in front apparently going well and quicker than you, the internal clock sometimes takes second place to the illusion even for someone as good as Ruby.
 
Last edited:
archie said:
Easier to ride a nice even pace from the front with only your internal clock to guide you. When you've some in front apparently going well and quicker than you, the internal clock sometimes takes second place to the illusion even for someone as good as Ruby.
Click to expand...

good point

One of the best examples of a race where going too fast costs the best horse the race is when Sublimity sauntered past knackered HE and BI to win his CH. Carberry sat in last place...the correct position pacewise in that particular race..and beat horses he wouldn't have done if HE and BI had raced more evenly instead of taking each other on..that was a genius ride..but i think he rides that style no matter what anyway;)
 
Is one thing to think to let them go if the pace is quick, and another to actually do it. Absolutely no chance he will let them go if the same thing happens again this year. The field is so deep he just won't do.
 
EC1 said:
you never believed they went too fast..you have even ignored the man who rode him..Ruby Walsh...quoted below

"He was too free the first year. I sat too far back on him the second year - he wasn't 100 per cent - and last year I shouldn't have followed the ones in front," Walsh said. "They were going too fast and I followed them. I shouldn't have.

"Racing is about pace, about judgment. I knew they were going too fast. I should have backed my own judgment and stayed where I was but instead I was thinking of all the criticism I got the year before and I kept following them. That was the mistake I made and the horse got me out of it. It won't happen again.

"If I hadn't followed the pace last year I'd have arrived turning in hard on the bridle and he'd have blown everybody away. But he still managed to win.

i did tell you this last year not long after the race..but i think you described it as nonsense

Do you think Walsh is such a poor judge that he doesn't know when he has gone too fast or too slow in a race?...I think he is a great judge of pace...and his comments above back up all the sectional data findings.

If he had not gone after them at the top of the hill he would have won by 10 lengths+..instead he went with them and all of them walked the last 3f.
Click to expand...

reet hard said:
Saw that myself EC, but it's taken him 11 and-a-half months to reach that conclusion, yet said (in the immediate aftermath of the race) the Fly idled after hitting the front, which hardly suggests the horse was out on his feet.
Click to expand...

I posted this before about a month ago, but i think it's quite relevant to this conversation and the quotes above.

This is what Ruby was thinking after the race last year:

"Alice Plunkett interviewing Ruby Walsh 30 seconds after last years CH :

AP: Ruby... Another champion hurdle?

RW: Yeah, brilliant, em, I can't say I was ever overly confident, I was confident as hell for the last 3 weeks, but from the word go I was never....... He didn't travel like he can, he make a mistake or two, but in fairness to him, what he has as well as all the class he has, He has an unbelievable big heart for a small horse, he's as tough as nails, and because I wasn't going and I wasn't happy, I'm in front about 2 furlongs too soon. But eh, he pinged the last, which he always does and he ground it out to the line. He's a cracking horse and I'm glad that he got it back and showed everyone that he is a true Champion Hurdler, coz he is, he's a wonderful little horse."
 
On The Bridle said:
SlimChance said:
Un Du Sceaux is now 8/11 to run in the Champion Hurdle.

.[/QUOTE

He's on the boat. Or at least booked on it am I informed
Click to expand...
could easily be because he's the backup incase something happens to HF at the eleventh hour. or they want to give him experience of travelling for the future.

i'll believe it went i see it. still don't make him anything like an odds on shot to line up.
Click to expand...
 
Kauto Abu said:
Who's offering 8/11?
Click to expand...

Think outside the box:

Betfair lay price / Best Bookmaker NRNB price = Betfair implied chance of UDS running.

Currently 19/15 = 1.26

1/4 to run according to Betfair.

Now Ruby is quoted as saying he is a certainty not to run but the market has to be noted.
 
SlimChance said:
Think outside the box:

Betfair lay price / Best Bookmaker NRNB price = Betfair implied chance of UDS running.

Currently 19/15 = 1.26

1/4 to run according to Betfair.

Now Ruby is quoted as saying he is a certainty not to run but the market has to be noted.
Click to expand...
it's pennies though. the liquidity suggests its a few people getting excited over a rumour he's on the boat. 1/4 my @ss.
 
isnt 3/5 either

looking at whatever is on the lay on betfair and doing your calculations is a simplistic way of pricing it. if there was proper money to lay him at the prices then fair enough but there isn't. it's buttons.

i hope you're right and he goes but everything coming from the mullins camp suggests otherwise.
 
JamesRB said:
isnt 3/5 either

looking at whatever is on the lay on betfair and doing your calculations is a simplistic way of pricing it. if there was proper money to lay him at the prices then fair enough but there isn't. it's buttons.

i hope you're right and he goes but everything coming from the mullins camp suggests otherwise.
Click to expand...

The Betfair market is pure regardless of the amounts being matched. It's blindingly obvious something has changed and there is a serious chance he now runs. If you want to lay me odds against he runs tonight please do.
 
Last edited:
SlimChance said:
The Betfair market is pure regardless of the amounts being matched.
Click to expand...
disagree. liquidity validates the confidence of such prices. tempted to gamble with you regarding this but hoping he runs for my own bet on him in the race so will give that a miss. guess we'll see over the weekend what happens. simply suspect there's been a bit of movement as he's travelled over, which for me doesn't at all mean he'll participate in the race.
 
Various foreign trained flat horses stay in yards in Newmarket, such as Geoff Wragg's old place, when they come over. Where do the Mullins army and other Irish horses camp for Cheltenham?
 
Tout Seul said:
Dubious editing there from Grey.
""Here comes the story of the Hurricane... the champion of the world..."

The missing words from the song are "he could have been" which of course would then be appropriate.
Click to expand...

"The one the authorities came to blame, for something that he never done. Put in a prison cell but one time he could have been....."

Those are the full lyrics (or one variation of them anyway, Dylan loves a lyric!). Was listening to that in the motor today. One of the great protest songs.
 
Simon said:
Various foreign trained flat horses stay in yards in Newmarket, such as Geoff Wragg's old place, when they come over. Where do the Mullins army and other Irish horses camp for Cheltenham?
Click to expand...

Mullins's horses stay in the racecourse stables. 141 boxes at the racecourse are set aside for Irish trained horses. (Wednesday's Racing Post)
 
stiltsky said:
What sort of sp price would you predict should it run slim?
Click to expand...

It's still far too hot a race. I think it would be 13 on Betfair if he was a confirmed runner so 10/1 general with the books. He's still an experienced horse in the hottest race if the festival.

Currently 68% to run.
 
Back
Top