Maxbet
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Question: does Champagne Fever act at Cheltenham...If answer is yes...no more questions..
next witness please..
Champion Hurdle 2014
- Thread starter granger
- Start date
Question: does Champagne Fever act at Cheltenham...If answer is yes...no more questions..
next witness please..
archie
Senior Jockey
Answer - yes but Champagne Fever isn't a champion hurdler either and Mrs H has already said that she doesn't think that Jezki is best suited by Cheltenham so I'm not wholly enamoured by the Supreme form. You may have misread my post, Max, in that I was specifically not saying that he didn't act on the track. I just think that his best form so far is on flat tracks. I was quite surprised that TNO got as close as he did at Kempton.
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I don't know about that. I would say WP is having a very persuausive word in connections' ear not to run him. I think this is the wrong decision and hope he shows up at the eleventh hour.
I sense a heavy dose of sarcasm Clive but I'll humour you; I simply don't think the race is going to be run to suit him and while it was different ground and trip I can't forget how he was reeled in by At Fishers Cross over a year ago, and at one point it looked like being a similar story with Zarkandar.
As I've said before, this race is a real conundrum so we all need the smallest of things to rule out sufficient opposition to get it down to a manageable number. My exclusions are due to the aforementioned gut based feeling re TNO, Jezki I feel is slightly below champion class and Our Conor is a hard one but I'm hoping he was made to look better than he his, having got the run of the race in the Triumph.
Melodic Rendezvous looked short of pace when Zarkandar went for home in the Kingwell and despite getting on top, that wouldn't be anywhere near good enough for this.
I'm not saying MTOY or Hurricane Fly aren't without doubts but short of leaving the race alone (probably the sensible - but boring - thing to do), these are where my hard earned have been targetted. MTOY could become something of a cliff horse for me though, ever since I took 16s for last years Supreme.
same probability as HF meeting with a setback between now & sunday morning
Pretty good summary. Heres mine FWIW
MTOY. Settled better than ever last time and i think that could be significant. Could improve again from that run. Lovely horse that i sense we havent seen the best of yet. I dont believe that the course is a problem for him
TNO. Game and hard which can really work in this race. As can stamina. Xmas hurdle is best race we have seen this season and he is well set to battle up the hill. The hurdling "problem" is overplayed. For a supposed "stayer" hes certainly been looking the part over 2m. If the race is a dogfight at the end of a punishing gallop, which i think is likely, he is the one i would want on my side
OC. I wonder how many beaten throughout the season have actually reversed form when finally "fit" on the big day? Maybe Hardy Eustace springs to mind but I would rather take as i see rather than guess at something which may not even be there. Next year I think
HF. Simply put he holds OC. Mullins says its "unbelievable " hes improving at ten. I agree with him. It is. There has to be a strong feeling this is best field hes faced by far. Lots of class of course but at this stage of career I sense the wall could be hit anytime, thus the place lay (not taht i bother with such bets) is appealing for some
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S
SlimChance
Guest
Un Du Sceaux is now 8/11 to run in the Champion Hurdle.
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
My final contribution to the thread pre-race.
It's been a blast - thanks to all for playing.
I will be back on Tuesday evening......unless I'm in celebratory tatters, in which case it might be Wednesday morning.
It's been a blast - thanks to all for playing.
I will be back on Tuesday evening......unless I'm in celebratory tatters, in which case it might be Wednesday morning.
I was being overly so wilson.i agree that its a conundrum .
We will see in the next 2 days if the owner is an stupid.
Maxbet
Journeyman
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None of last years winners Champagne aside, beat him up the hill, that's from the last or from the second last and if you watch carefully he actually does close the stronger right at the finish.
The hardest to read is the Champion because make no mistake about it....Hurricane Fly's performance was top draw off what was exceptionally fast middle fractions set by Rock On Ruby, of which I have been harping on about for weeks and was quite pleased when the Timeform quest on ATR yesterday reiterated what I have been saying.
if you watch properly, you'll actually see MTOY's stride shorten in the last half-furlong, and it's not surprising Timeform support your daft pace theory as they were the authors of it.
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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Our Conor already here and was exercising nicely this morning, apparently they are keen to "Get him settled in" 
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I don't get the idea that Our Conor had the race fall in his lap in the Triumph.
Watch it again. The pace was good and he was able to lay up there in a hack canter. Just about everything that raced in the front half finished in the front half so they were all being asked to quicken at the right time yet OC did so without coming off the bit before putting no less than 15 lengths between himself and the rest in the space of about 1.5 furlongs.
That's not getting the race on a plate. That's pure class.
Watch it again. The pace was good and he was able to lay up there in a hack canter. Just about everything that raced in the front half finished in the front half so they were all being asked to quicken at the right time yet OC did so without coming off the bit before putting no less than 15 lengths between himself and the rest in the space of about 1.5 furlongs.
That's not getting the race on a plate. That's pure class.
EC1
On a break
I was the original author of the daft pace idea Reet..on last years CH thread
Timeform just copied :lol:
you never believed they went too fast..you have even ignored the man who rode him..Ruby Walsh...quoted below
"He was too free the first year. I sat too far back on him the second year - he wasn't 100 per cent - and last year I shouldn't have followed the ones in front," Walsh said. "They were going too fast and I followed them. I shouldn't have.
"Racing is about pace, about judgment. I knew they were going too fast. I should have backed my own judgment and stayed where I was but instead I was thinking of all the criticism I got the year before and I kept following them. That was the mistake I made and the horse got me out of it. It won't happen again.
"If I hadn't followed the pace last year I'd have arrived turning in hard on the bridle and he'd have blown everybody away. But he still managed to win.
i did tell you this last year not long after the race..but i think you described it as nonsense
Do you think Walsh is such a poor judge that he doesn't know when he has gone too fast or too slow in a race?...I think he is a great judge of pace...and his comments above back up all the sectional data findings.
If he had not gone after them at the top of the hill he would have won by 10 lengths+..instead he went with them and all of them walked the last 3f.
Timeform just copied :lol:
you never believed they went too fast..you have even ignored the man who rode him..Ruby Walsh...quoted below
"He was too free the first year. I sat too far back on him the second year - he wasn't 100 per cent - and last year I shouldn't have followed the ones in front," Walsh said. "They were going too fast and I followed them. I shouldn't have.
"Racing is about pace, about judgment. I knew they were going too fast. I should have backed my own judgment and stayed where I was but instead I was thinking of all the criticism I got the year before and I kept following them. That was the mistake I made and the horse got me out of it. It won't happen again.
"If I hadn't followed the pace last year I'd have arrived turning in hard on the bridle and he'd have blown everybody away. But he still managed to win.
i did tell you this last year not long after the race..but i think you described it as nonsense
Do you think Walsh is such a poor judge that he doesn't know when he has gone too fast or too slow in a race?...I think he is a great judge of pace...and his comments above back up all the sectional data findings.
If he had not gone after them at the top of the hill he would have won by 10 lengths+..instead he went with them and all of them walked the last 3f.
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or maybe he reached the conclusion not long after the race and only made it public last week?
last year's race simply isn't hard to fathom. sectional data only confirmed what the visual impression gave. that RoR went off ridiculously quick and was never really given a breather. the fly simply outstayed them all.
Our Conor already here and was exercising nicely this morning, apparently they are keen to "Get him settled in"
When you consider that Aidan O'Brien likes to fly his over on the morning of the race this is a very different way of doing things even allowing for different budgets.
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EC1
On a break
the time from the second last to the finish was dire though Reet...but as they were all tired you never had anything to compare them with visually that actuallyhad any petrol left
one of the most crushing sections was the downhill section to 2 out from the top of the hill. Given that they ran faster than ideal throughout..not totally mad no...but faster than they should have..the downhill section was where they all used a lot of unnecessary petrol..it is that section imo where they all used up their finishing effort. HF could have just let them get away from him at the top of the hill but i think Ruby had the previous year in his head and thought ROR wouldn't come back. The final sectionals tell you he certainly would have.
I doubt Ruby will make this mistake again. What is odd about it is that he had already ridden CF to near perfection earlier...so you would have thought he would have known they were doing too much...pressure of riding such a high profile horse could have come into play.
I know you aren't a fan of the sectionals but i have found them pretty illuminating in explaining how the CH and SN races have panned out.
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EC1
On a break
that is correct...and its scenario i didn't think HF could pull off..i got him wrong
thats why pace judgement is key under both codes...Ruby is one of the best judges of it imo..just not on that day..all the key horses ran similar speeds that day..all tired badly..but HF less than the others
Welcome back and thats a very good point. Doesnt affects my feelings either way but ruby is brutally honest and self critical but its amazing that he went from one sublime pace ride to that
No seeking an explanation or suggesting anything at all other than its surprising.
He proved he's not short of speed and stamina, I completely agree but it was an even paced race and he wasn't pressed by anything on neither his inner or outer for the whole race. Yes, that was because he travelled much better than anything else in the race but that won't be the case in the Champion Hurdle and it's unlikely the pace will be so even.
Will he have the gears to adjust to different scenarios ?. I'm not sure any of them will, with the exception of the reigning champ.
EC1
On a break
i think that even Ruby feels immense pressure riding HF in the CH..the previous year was in his mind i believe..he didn't want a repeat of it
you would have had to have large balls though to not go after them at the top of the hill and watch them pull clear tbh...HF was out of his comfort zone at that point when he gave him the hurry up..reason he was out of his comfort zone is that any horse would have been...maybe Ruby should have listened to the horse..he knew he was going the right speed and didn't need to go faster
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