Champion Hurdle 2015

EC1 said:
if we say that HF is near on as good as ever..then IF Ruby doesn't ride him in the CH..it will mean that Faugheen isn't just a little bit bit better than HF ..it will mean he has a lot in hand....because if it was borderline then Ruby would opt for HF..he would hardly not ride HF if it were a toss up between them in his mind. If Ruby rides the fav then it must point to him being a 175 horse minimum to get him off of HF.
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Based on the article, I'd suggest Ruby would need to be of the opinion Faugheen is a 170 minimum rather than 175.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Based on the article, I'd suggest Ruby would need to be of the opinion Faugheen is a 170 minimum rather than 175.
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no not 170..you missed my point..if he thinks there is little in it there is no way he would desert HF ..the only way he deserts HF is if Faugheen is a lot better

if its close between them and he went for Faugheen..and HF won...how many years would he rue the decision to get off a triple CH winner..he wouldn't risk it

when you think about it..HF performing so well has given us all a great "tell" here as to just how good Faugheen may well be.
 
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I like your logic EC1.

Only 'slight' flaw is the risk that Ruby may decide to remain loyal to the owner who is going to provide the biggest haul of winners in coming years and that one is a no-brainer.
 
but doesn't Ruby basically ride what he thinks has the best chance?

on the ML a few weeks ago he was asked when he would decide..he decide..which horse he would ride in the CH...he said on the day before..depending on how each horse had worked that week

i just do not see him ..in a coin toss. not riding HF..maybe i am underestimating your point..i don't know
 
Yes of course he does but if you were in his position and genuinely couldn't decide which to ride you'd have to ask yourself which would hurt most;

Passing the ride over on a 3 time champion hurdler (and don't forget that Faugheen could be a lot better than HF but still lose out to The New One, Jezki et al - or even hit the deck)
or
Losing all of the Ricci rides in future regardless of the outcome of the race.

As I said, I agree with your logic and the latter is admittedly unlikely even if he does reject Faugheen as Ricci has so far seemingly gone along with everything Mullins & Walsh decide but let's not forget he is still a businessman, a notoriously ruthless one at that and it at least adds a counter-argument against your logic.
 
wilsonl said:
(and don't forget that Faugheen could be a lot better than HF but still lose out to The New One, Jezki et al - or even hit the deck)
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if he picks Faugheen then you will need a 175 horse to beat him imo judged by Ruby actually picking him..neither Jezki or TNO offer that imo

his decision is key now for me

how many more years will he keep riding?..is he that bothered about future relationships enough to pass on a 3 time Ch horse..im not convinced he would give it up for future enhancement tbh
 
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Not sure that handicap marks will inform Walsh's decision.

For one, they may not be accurate, and for two, they make no provision for further progression from Faugheen, who - regardless of the mark - hasn't exacly been stretched to achieve it. The Ricci factor also comes into play, but is probably not hugely influential, as whilst he probably is ruthless, I suspect it's also tempered by cold, hard, logic; he just doesn't strike me as the type to cut-off his nose to spite his face, should Walsh side with The Fly.

FWIW, I want Townend to get the Hurricane Fly ride regardless., because he's more than earned it over the last 7 years.....though I suppose Walsh is an acceptable subbie, should it fall that way*.

* It won't. Ruby is a stick-on to ride Faugheen - he doesn't do sentimental.
 
i don't think handicap marks are anything to do with his decison..not saying that as far as he is concerned....Ruby said whichever one tells him that week is the best at that time he will ride..nothing to do with marks or owt

the handicap mark issue is our measure as to what he will refuse to ride..ie..he turns down a 168 horse on a 3 timer...only for something a lot better..if its a toss up he will pick HF..therefore if he goes Faugheen..we now know its very significant now

a few weeks ago it was an auto he would pick Faugheen...not so straightforward now

i must be explaining this really badly or something
 
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EC1 said:
no not 170..you missed my point..if he thinks there is little in it there is no way he would desert HF ..the only way he deserts HF is if Faugheen is a lot better

if its close between them and he went for Faugheen..and HF won...how many years would he rue the decision to get off a triple CH winner..he wouldn't risk it

when you think about it..HF performing so well has given us all a great "tell" here as to just how good Faugheen may well be.
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I didn't really miss your point. It occurred to me as I was typing it but thought I'd make it anyway.
 
EC1 said:
i don't think handicap marks are anything to do with his decison..not saying that as far as he is concerned....Ruby said whichever one tells him that week is the best at that time he will ride..nothing to do with marks or owt

the handicap mark issue is our measure as to what he will refuse to ride..ie..he turns down a 168 horse on a 3 timer...only for something a lot better..if its a toss up he will pick HF..therefore if he goes Faugheen..we now know its very significant now

a few weeks ago it was an auto he would pick Faugheen...not so straightforward now

i must be explaining this really badly or something
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I was going to argue something similar.

I'm not sure Ruby would be saying to himself, "What are the ORs of these two?" That's for us to think about as we really only have racecourse form on which to go, and ORs are one of the more accurate ways of evaluating form.

Ruby will have a better idea about their respective merits from what both are doing at home and will use that, along with ORs and Timeform, I imagine, to weigh up his options.
 
EC1 said:
i don't think handicap marks are anything to do with his decison..not saying that as far as he is concerned....Ruby said whichever one tells him that week is the best at that time he will ride..nothing to do with marks or owt

the handicap mark issue is our measure as to what he will refuse to ride..ie..he turns down a 168 horse on a 3 timer...only for something a lot better..if its a toss up he will pick HF..therefore if he goes Faugheen..we now know its very significant now

a few weeks ago it was an auto he would pick Faugheen...not so straightforward now

i must be explaining this really badly or something
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Dunno, EC - has anything really changed in the last few weeks, other than HF won (more or less as expected to) in the ICH?

I personally think the deferral of his decision is all about avoiding jumping one way, only for his selection to pick-up an injury, and him thereafter having to jump the other way. I think he made his mind up a long time ago in favour of Faugheen - he just doesn't want to confirm it, until it's too late for anything to go wrong (and he probably doesn't want weeks of flak from HF supporters either!).

Ruby is hard-headed, and knows HF's limitations at Cheltenham. Whether these are down to track, ground, age, poor tactics on his part, or a combination of all four, the horse routinely puts up better performances elsewhere - his highest seasonal rating almost always coming at the Punchestown Festival (my view). I can't see any circumstances where he chooses Hurricane Fly over Faugheen, if the latter is fit-and-well. :cool:
 
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I think that's about right, Gh.

But the more people debate the issue the more doubt is created (not in Ruby's mind) and the more likely the market is to react.

I think Faugheen is shaping up as a good thing and that Ruby will definitely ride. It's all a question of deciding whether or when to back it or wait for the market without (not forgetting that I have SOAV ante-post but I've all but written off his win chances since the Christmas Hurdle).
 
I think things have a bit tbh Grass...HF showed real verve last time..and even before that run on ML Ruby made it clear it would be an at the time decision...obviously as you say..you don't commit owt that early

its not an auto imo that it might have seemed before xmas

i don't think the Cheltenham thing is a great issue..as that article confirms
 
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To be honest, the place he's shown least verve is Cheltenham - even when winning the Champion Hurdle. That's why I don't buy what the Anglo-Irish handicappers have to say on the subject. The article falls down because it ignores HFs 2013 win at Punchestown, which was undeniably better form - given he beat ROR 6L further without ever being asked a question.

It genuinely looked like game-over behind Jezki at Punchestown last season. The CH defeat I can sort of understand, but that run at Punchestown was as lifeless as I'd seen him in all his hurdles starts - with no apparent excuses at all. I'm still sort of amazed that he's come out and won his three prep races this season, and can't describe how glad I was to make the trip over to the ICH.

I don't believe in fairy-tales though. :whistle:
 
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I m having a laugh reading all the reason why Ruby will pick Faugheen or Hurricane Fly....loyalty to the horse, keeping in with the owner, their ratings etc.

Ruby will wait until both horses have had their final gallop and the one that impresses him most at that point is the one he will ride as long as the horse eats up the next day.

Ruby is a winner and yes he'll give up a winning ride to ride another if he has good reason like he may want to ride him in the future in something like Gold Cup National or whatever


But give up a ride like Faugheen or The Fly and ride the horse who hasn't worked well? No way
 
its exactly what we are saying?

not one person has said he will pick a horse because of ratings..spend more time reading and less time writing Tanlic.:D

come on now ..keep up lad:)
 
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We were indeed. The difference of opinion was about what he might do if he has trouble picking one over the other.
 
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Home work doesn't always translate though. After Sunday he said Alvisio Ville would murder Nichols Canyon on their homework.... Didn't happen on the track.
 
He won't be making his decision the day before, just confirming it. As long as Faugheen works well at home that will be his choice. For reasons explained by Grassy earlier he just won't make that decision public yet.
 
and guess what Bear he'll ride Hurricane Fly if Faugheen fails to impress:) Don't need Grassy or anyone else to tell us that.

As for you Mr Fuckwit my favourite poster:lol:



"If Ruby rides the fav then it must point to him being a 175 horse minimum to get him off of HF."

Must have been a clerical error on your part EC

I think what you meant to say is if Faugheen is a 175 rated horse Ruby will ride him

or maybe you meant if Faugheen is chosen by Ruby he's a 175 rate horse

or was it Ruby doesn't know what he's talking about but I know he'll chose him because Faugheen is a 175 horse

Fucked if I know why you even mentioned a rating if you didn't think it would influence the mans decision

Yer a funny fells and even you don't know what you are talking about........dam keyboard must have a mind of it's own......wish I had one like that :lol:

I'm just waiting for the headline "Ruby considers riding Arctic Fire" LOL Gotta love the media.latest saying everytime he sits on a horse "The Retiring Tony McCoy"
which is even less interesting after hearing it 50 times than "Ruby has a hard decision to make"
 
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