Champion Stakes

Crazy price. Beat trees getting weight on his return to the track. A gun will be put to his head during the race on Saturday. I look forward to seeing if he's any good but I would not bet on it.
 
SlimChance said:
Crazy price. Beat trees getting weight on his return to the track. A gun will be put to his head during the race on Saturday. I look forward to seeing if he's any good but I would not bet on it.
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Try looking at the form book - he beat Jet Away who won a conditions race nto, beating a 105 rated horse 9 lengths, and a 100 horse a further length back.
 
Head says Snow Fairy. Heart says Midday.

(Wallet says "what the hell are you doing listening to either of those useless appendages? Have you learnt nothing?")
 
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reet hard said:
SYT won 3 gp1's in as many weeks last year, then proceeded to place in the Melbourne Cup just 3 days after the last of them.
For a 10f horse, he ran a blinder in the Arc, and I just don't see why he should be at all fazed by running in it.
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To be fair, the training regime in Australia is completely different and they are trained with these tough short-tetm campaigns in mind.
 
davidjohnson said:
Something new Timeform have done for the QEII and Champion Stakes. Any views?
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It looks good and is elegant in design and is an improvement on the race predictor on the RP website, but with no disrespect to TF (because I can see why they would want to come up with this sort of thing) I’m against this sort of dumbing down/over simplification, at which the BBC is standard bearer (i.e. hopeless).
 
Why do you see it as dumbing down? I think it's the other way to be honest. Trying to get people considering how the run of the race will affect the result rather than simply saying I think x will win because he's better than y.
 
davidjohnson said:
Why do you see it as dumbing down? I think it's the other way to be honest. Trying to get people considering how the run of the race will affect the result rather than simply saying I think x will win because he's better than y.
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Oversimplification in pretty graphics for those who can't be bothered to read a race preview. Maybe it has its place but it's not for me. As I say this is the best of similar attempts I have seen, but no more than that.
 
As well as CDA I've topped up on So You Think. The Montjeu/HR/Fame and Glory angle, which I think has kept his price honest, is a red herring. He's more of a Giants Causeway type than those trio and has taken a lot of races in the past. Anything over 9/4 is very fair.
 
She's proved she's as good as the favourite and if she blossoms like she did last Autumn, she could easily comfortably beat the favourite.

I'd love a match bet factoring in the current market prices.
 
I can't agree with that. The tactics on the favourite were all wrong at Longchamp and for me given his overall profile I expect more improvement from him from the Irish Champion than from the filly. Snow Fairy is a good price don't get me wrong because as you say the market is all wrong - but that's because Twice Over, Nathaniel and Dubai Prince are chronically under priced not SYT.
 
I'm expecting Snow Fairy to go close. But I've decided to have a Place only bet on Midday and leave it at that.
 
I have the impression some people are overanalysing this race.

So You Think has been very consistent both this season and last, and it seems a safe enough assumption that he will one again produce a rating in the high 120s.

Cirrus Des Aigles has won plenty of races, but a roll call of his victims doesn't impress in tomorrow's company and he hasn't won at the top level.

Snow Fairy was beaten narrowly enough by So You Think at Leopardstown and got revenge in the Arc, but she is better at 12f and SYT is a 10f horse. Back at tomorrow's trip I think So You Think will be able to hold her.

Twice Over and Midday seem to be a couple of pounds short of the required level.

I can't take Dubai Prince's chance of winning too seriously in a race of this class. He might be top class but he lacks the experience I think is needed for tomorrow's test.

I'm going with So You Think, who seems to be a straightforward and reliable horse. The one I'm wary of is Nathaniel, because I don't know enough about him, but the signs are he is going to find 10f tougher than 12f.

I'm looking forward to the race.
 
davidjohnson said:
Something new Timeform have done for the QEII and Champion Stakes. Any views?
Click to expand...

I like it. I have doubts over just how predictive anything like that could ever be, but it does help to give an overall impression of how the race might unfold without having to wade through in-play symbols. Noticed that it includes Timeform's standard times too - they're not normally published, are they?
 
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