Champions Day

What I meant is that he would be shorter if there wasn't this hullabaloo about 3yo not doing well recently. He's certainly a more than worthy favourite.

I've had a little on at 7s and can't resist an each way on Fair Along who is well drawn and goes well fresh.
 
The poor record of 3-y-o's is a bit of a statistical blip. We know that they are favoured in all all-aged staying handicaps at this time of year so I wouldn't let their poor record in this individual race put you off.
 
The sheer distance of the race - therefore the big allowance - and the paucity of unproven stayers at three means they're statistically not well represented in this race. But they've proved in the past they can win it if they stay the trip at this age.
 
I've taken 14's about Bahrain Storm - his Galway Hurdle win showed him in good form as did him following up a couple of days later on the flat, added to a decent prep-run off a break last time out at Listowel and the addition of Gary Carroll in the saddle (already winner of two big flat staying handicaps this year - the Ebor and the Irish equivalent of todays race) and I think he has an outstanding chance.

Dirar has an interesting jockey booking for me but unsure if he'd be up to winning a race like this.
 
I think Dick Turpin is a bit big at 14s in the Dewhurst, he got no run whatsoever in the Criterium and he was incredibly impressive prior to that run. I think he might surprise a few people today and could easily run a place, if not better.

No strong views on the Cesarewitch, I suspect Alanbrooke will go well for Dettori and he's put some strong times in this season. At bigger prices, Viper and Ajaan take the eye due to their course form.

I think the best bet of the day is at Catterick in Chips O'Toole in the 2.15 who put in a cracking front running performance at Goodwood over 6f. This pace favouring 5f will suit him down to the ground and I suspect he'll be too quick and too good for the opposition. 15/2 seems crazy.
 
I live near Cheltenham during the week and was tempted to stay down for today however logistics demand I came back home which allows me to go to HQ today. I'm hoping that Alanbrook ew will make it a good betting day. Sod the stats I think that the 3yos will definitely be involved at the end like Euro a a sneaking fancy that Fair Along ew will also be thereabouts. A couple of forecasts with the fav.

A few years ago I backed one at 25's in the Dewhirst on the basis that one poor race doesn't mean a poor horse. The bet won and I will do the same today with Dick Turpin.

A small ew on Asset in the first and probably an other small bet on Sariska and or Never on Sunday.
 
In the Ces I've long-listed the following:

Bahrain Storm (love the name), Fair Along, Yes Mr Pres, Keenes Day, Viper, Bulwark, Sereth, Alanbrooke and Darley Sun. I'm not going to let the draw put me off any so I'll probably concentrate on those highest up my ratings or with the potential to get there.

I'll probably pass on Fair Along (age, and a replication of his good run 2 years ago might not be enough to win), Yes Mr Pres (ground) and Keenes Day (reliability and maybe just a wee bit too much to find compared with others).

I'll probably focus on the two 3yos and save on the others.
 
If Main Aim can come back to his best today the 6.8 currently on offer on Betfair looks very generous indeed. Of course, the fact that he has been well below his best in his two most recent starts is factored into his price. If he's back to his July Cup form he's surely at 4.0/4.25 chance in my book.

Given that Stoute seemed fairly bullish earlier in the week that he's over whatever was at the root of his last two efforts, I've taken the plunge.
 
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I was surprised to see Nehaam and Akmal so far apart in the Jockey Club Cup. Although Akmal probably won with something in hand last time, I think Nehaam is more likely of the pair to improve for stepping up to 2m. His early-season form is pretty strong and thought the pair would be more like 11/4 joint favs than 2/1 and 9/2.
 
I'm surprised they've taken Akmal for this, if he were mine I'd be looking at the BC Marathon but you know, Sheikh knows best!

His time for his win last time out was out of this world, Group class Cup race material.

Agree about Nehaam, probably an obvious reverse forecast to be honest.
 
In recent years the Cesarewitch has been a benefit for NH trainers. I think it's because you generally need a fresh horse for this race and they have the expertise in preparing horses to win over a trip off a light preparation.
 
Chabal out to 7/2 on Betfair. I do wonder what Bolger makes of him, as he doesn't need the money either. It could look an inspired piece of business later this afternoon!
 
Hamm said:
Chabal out to 7/2 on Betfair. I do wonder what Bolger makes of him, as he doesn't need the money either. It could look an inspired piece of business later this afternoon!
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Jesus, all bin Suroor has to do is dream about training them.
 
What a result for Oratorio and Ballydoyle. I thought Steinbeck probably comes out the best horse. I think he would have beaten them had they been closer to him.
 
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I haven't been studying the 2yo form this season but there were some lofty reputations going into this and O'Brien has taken three of the first four placings. As I said elsewhere, I felt Steinbeck was in there to weigh up the opposition for next year but win if he could. He didn't do much wrong.

I've been kicking myself black and blue for the last 20 minutes for not noticing how big a price Beethoven was. I saw Murtagh had opted for Steinbeck and assumed that Moore was a serious booking for Beethoven, who was highly rated on RPRs. I saw Steinbeck was 9/2 and assumed Beethoven wasn't much longer but didn't actually check. Couldn't believe it when I heard after the race what price he'd been this morning. Should have been worth a saver at least.
 
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