Champions Day

Euronymous said:
I think Sariska and especially Mawatheeq give the race a betting angle if anything.

I'm stuggling to see why Mawatheeq isn't something like 12/1. Beating Camponologist receiving weight is form on a par with Dr Freemantle who is twice the price. The latter and Pipedreamer would appeal as place bets to small stakes.
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I can kind of see where you're coming from on a price angle, not sure how he's a shorter to NoS who's a Group One winner. That said, I think Mawatheeq is a player in this event, his improvement is going to keep on coming and he was awfully impressive last time out in a very respectable time. He represents no value whatsoever though at 6/1 given his profile.
 
Fame and Glory's has the best form of anything in the race. Even if the ICS was over-rated by a few pounds and I'm not convinced that it was, he still has a few pound in hand on Sariska and several pounds on anything else.

He is no more ground dependent than Sariska is, and he has only had two races in the last three and a half months so he should still be fresh enough.

I certainly wouldn't want to be laying him.
 
chroniclandlord said:
Fame and Glory's has the best form of anything in the race. Even if the ICS was over-rated by a few pounds and I'm not convinced that it was, he still has a few pound in hand on Sariska and several pounds on anything else.

He is no more ground dependent than Sariska is, and he has only had two races in the last three and a half months so he should still be fresh enough.

I certainly wouldn't want to be laying him.
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There's no question that Fame has the best form. The worry is that he will run to that form. His performance was quite flat in the Arc and he would have to suddenly improve again from a jaded performance. At this stage of the season he may not have enough of an edge to do that. He deserves to be marked up as favourite, but is not a bet at the prices. He may win (...I would love him to), but he must be worth taking on.
 
chroniclandlord said:
I certainly wouldn't want to be laying him.
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At the prices, I'd be considering place laying him. This comes less than 2 weeks after an incredibly flat effort in the Arc. I'm not sure the ground will have much cut in and he certainly doesn't look like he needs dropping back in trip. I wouldn't rule him bombing out completely.

I've yet to find an angle in the race but I'm coming round to Never On Sunday. Also, she may be 100/1 but Barshiba will not go down without a fight and I can possibly see her sneaking a place.
 
The race-adjusted/unadjusted (i.e. raw) RPRs have Fame on 147 and Sariska on 142 (this gives Sariska an 8lb advantage over Never On A Sunday). Sariska may well put in her best performance in this or run up to her best while Fame looks sure to run at least 5lb off. This could give Sariska the edge she needs.
 
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That's my reading of the race too, and I've backed accordingly. I can't really see any other threat to F&G even though I believe he won't run to his best
 
SteveM said:
The race-adjusted RPRs have Fame on 147 and Sariska on 142 (this gives Sariska an 8lb advantage over Never On A Sunday). Sariska may well put in her best performance in this or run up to her best while Fame looks sure to run at least 5lb off. This could give Sariska the edge she needs.
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Be aware, RPRs don't take wfa into account at this stage. Maybe in the Racing Post on Saturday they will, but not in the early versions online. Not that this affects F&G and Sariska in relative terms as they're both 3yos but it will distort their ratings relative to the older horses so take 5lbs off the figures quoted.

And RPRs went way OTT with their rating for Sariska at the Curragh anyway.

If there's only 5lbs between these two, I'm a monkey's uncle.

If the real F&G turns up it's game over but I was very disappointed with his Arc run and maybe two races against STS have left their mark, in which case the Tregoning beast is the improver and the most likely winner.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Be aware, RPRs don't take wfa into account at this stage. Maybe in the Racing Post on Saturday they will, but not in the early versions online. Not that this affects F&G and Sariska in relative terms as they're both 3yos but it will distort their ratings relative to the older horses so take 5lbs off the figures quoted.

And RPRs went way OTT with their rating for Sariska at the Curragh anyway.

If there's only 5lbs between these two, I'm a monkey's uncle.

If the real F&G turns up it's game over but I was very disappointed with his Arc run and maybe two races against STS have left their mark, in which case the Tregoning beast is the improver and the most likely winner.
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Yes I realise that her best reference RPR is 123. The 142 is with all of her allowance added in. Some might argue that Fame's absolute RPR (of 131) is more inflated the Sariska's of course. Nevertheless Fame is of course top-rated. It's whether he can run to that that is the worry.
 
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I agree Will about Doctor Fremantle; he's the best each way bet of the race for me.

I'm also considering place laying the front 3, and laying Fame and Glory for the win if he came down to about 6/5 ish.
 
I also think Virtual is a little overpriced at 28s. He seems like a horse who would do better over further a mile, and while he didn't shine in his only previous attempt at 10 furlongs in the Prince of Wales, I think he has every chance of a place, and shouldn't be twice the price of Twice over and Pipedreamer.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
It's late so I may be wrong, but I don't think the RP have adjusted those ratings for WFA.
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Quite right Gareth. With the 5lb WFA factored in the difference between Fame and Sariska of course remains the same (albeit at a lower level – 142 vs 137), although Sariska’s advantage over Never On Sunday is reduced to 3lb (137 vs 134) from 8lb.

The allowances are of course there for a reason. It is nevertheless interesting to look at the various layers of the rating.
 
Will said:
Doctor Fremantle for me. Surely, Sariska is a place lay.
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I can't see Sariska running anything but really well here. She should go very close in my opinion. I know Fallon is bullish about everything he gets on these days but she would have been right in the mix had she run in the Arc and I believe it will take a performance of real quality to beat her. Looking at the opposition and the places they are at, I'm not sure there is a performance of real quality to be had here (unless it is Fame).
 
Exactly - the sad thing is, it's not a top quality race any way you look at it.
Hard to get really excited about. There could be a surprise, but it would not mean much!
There's nothing of the calibre of New Approach this year - it's the weakest field for years in fact
 
New Approach aside, last year's race was a shocker. At least there's some semblence of depth in it this year.
 
Sara said:
Exactly - the sad thing is, it's not a top quality race any way you look at it.
Hard to get really excited about. There could be a surprise, but it would not mean much!
There's nothing of the calibre of New Approach this year - it's the weakest field for years in fact
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It isn't that bad Sara, you have the Oaks winner, the Irish Derby winner, three other Group 1 winners and about half a dozen Group 2 winners. I'd have thought that that would represent a better than average Group 1 field.
 
Stoute's been building Dr Freemantle up to a G1 all year and provided Moore rides him a little more handily I think he has a decent chance in this. He is the value on the prices anyway.

An intriguing contest.
 
Outside of Fame And Glory I agree Doctor Freemantle looks very interesting. Do not like Sariska for this at all.

Interesting to see Steinbeck being pretty strong in the market all week.
 
Galileo said:
Outside of Fame And Glory I agree Doctor Freemantle looks very interesting. Do not like Sariska for this at all.

Interesting to see Steinbeck being pretty strong in the market all week.
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She can't do badly in this. I don't see how she will wriggle out of the front two.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Agree with Hamm, looks like Fame needs about 2 miles, anyone backing him at 11/10 over this trip is a braver man than I.
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I really don't understand this talk about Fame And Glory being an out and out stayer. If you watch the Irish Champion he actually travels noticeably well through the race and visibly quickens when Murtagh asks turning in only to be subsequently brushed aside by Sea The Stars. It's not as if Murtagh was niggling away swinging out of the back; in actuality, the amount of ground he makes up from when they swing out of the back until swinging into the straight is pretty impressive.

Is he better suited by 12f than 10f? Probably, but this talk that he needs further than a mile and a half is nonsense in my view.

No strong opinion about tommorrow's race myself. Back to his Irish Champion form, Fame And Glory is a fair price at 13/8, though I'm not willing to make that assumption two weeks after his Arc run.

Sariska is possibly a shade too big but I don't trust her trainer, Doctor Freemantle has an awful lot to find on the book, Virtual needs cut, Twice Over (who hasn't been mentioned at all in this thread) isn't good enough and I don't know a great deal about the French horses but on his Royal Ascot form Never On Sunday has a bit to find.
 
Any thoughts on the Cesarewitch? Probably the most fascinating handicap of the season and the favourite really tempts me. His price is a reflection on the Askau Tau gamble that went awry last year. Thing is Darkley Sun is 7/1 not 7/2. He has a very similar profile though but is slightly better drawn. Add to this the presence of Nanton, the Curley creature and all the NH horses and it's a handicap to really savour.
 
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