Champions Day

Hamm said:
I don't believe Mastercraftsman stays 1m2
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I disagree. He sure looked laboured at Leopardswon but show me a horse who wouldn't when up against a monster. I realise as a 3yo he couldn't have run in it but he'd have gone close in the POW or an equally "soft" Group 1.
 
Hamm said:
For the first one, it is widely accepted by just about everyone in racing; he was ridden to get the trip and when this happens, it massively compromises a horse's chances of winning. I can't seriously believe you think he stays 1m4.
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Rip Van Winkle has only run over 12f once, in a Derby run at a slow pace. In that race he ran all the way to the line, gradually closing on the leaders the whole way down the home straight. He showed nothing that would suggest his stamina had run out. If that's what counts for definitively "not staying" these days, I reckon the term has become pretty useless.

I don't believe Mastercraftsman stays 1m2, and tried to convey that was my opinion, not a statement of fact. The only fact is it is impossible to prove whether any horse stays any distance. I believe he is a non-stayer due to how he finishes his races over 1m2, and with the insight provided by Oxx that STS was not 100% and the fact Kinane took a tug before winning comfortably, is for me, some evidence he does not truly stay 1m2, and is much better at a mile.
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In the Juddmonte International, Mastercraftsman raced over an extended 10f. Despite there only being 4 runners, 2 of them were pacemakers who ensured a fast early pace which led to a fast final time. Mastercraftsman ran all the way to the line, responding to his jockey's urgings, and finished off his race. That he wasn't good enough to beat even a less-than-100% fit, conservatively ridden Sea The Stars doesn't really come into it.
 
DJ, Perhaps 2 or 3 pounds.

Gareth, You say he does stay, I say he doesn't. The fact is he has been dropped back to a mile. The Derby was slowly run, so a miler cum 1m2 horse with plenty of ability would have no problem in running on at the end, as his finishing kick, superior to most 1m4 horses, would not be sapped by the stamina of a less than truly run race.

MCM - we'll have to agree to disagree. He clearly stays a mile well, an beyond it. I just believe that he'll fall short in the better class 1m2 races as his stamina will give way. To me, STS ground the York race out (due to Kinane taking a pull & not being 100% fit), which said another way, could be he won partly due to greater reserves of stamina.
 
Hamm said:
Gareth, You say he does stay, I say he doesn't. The fact is he has been dropped back to a mile.
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Is that all you're going on? In that case Mastercraftsman must stay 10f since he's been upped to that for his last three runs, right?

The Derby was slowly run, so a miler cum 1m2 horse with plenty of ability would have no problem in running on at the end, as his finishing kick, superior to most 1m4 horses, would not be sapped by the stamina of a less than truly run race.
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We appear to agree that the Derby offers no evidence that he doesn't stay 12f.
 
Gareth, no offence but you're being quite petty. I have made it clear time and again that these are only my opinions, that they reflect how I have judged several races and horses this season, and are not facts. If you have an opinion, feel free to share it.
 
I'm sorry, are your opinions exempt from scrutiny? :lol:

My opinions should be pretty clear: Mastercraftsman proved that he stays 10f in the Juddmonte International, and whilst Rip Van Winkle hasn't had the opportunity to prove definitively that he stays 12f, there's no actual evidence to suggest he doesn't, either.
 
No, not at all, but I gave my reasons several times, and stated each time they were merely my opinions.
 
Dewhurst Best Prices

Chabal 9/4
Arcano 7/2
Steinbeck 11/2
Silver Grecian 15/2
Xtension 14/1
Poet's Voice 14/1
Fencing Master 16/1
 
Galileo said:
Dewhurst Best Prices

Chabal 9/4
Arcano 7/2
Steinbeck 11/2
Silver Grecian 15/2
Xtension 14/1
Poet's Voice 14/1
Fencing Master 16/1
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Chabal the most likely winner for me, but Xtension, and especially Poet's Voice look massively overpriced at 14s.

Why is Steinbeck so short?
 
I have lost faith in Poet's Voice, think he will struggle here with a Ballydoyle pacemaker likely to hassle him for the lead - does not finish his races strongly enough.

As for Steinbeck - I would imagine bookies have put him in short enough and will see what the vibes are for him rather than taking a risk.
 
On what he's done on the track you'd have to say that he has the better form of the two - the trip is obviously a doubt but without the "4 Dewhurst's on the trot" angle you'd think the prices would be the other way round.
 
Through a form line Xtension wont be able to beat Arcano but he is a silly price at 7/1. Steinbeck is outrageous who in there rght mind would go near that especially the way O'Brien has started using races like this for educational purposes. Looks a cracking race.
 
I think the trip for Arcano will be fine - dam is from a nice Aga Khan family and Oasis Dream is proving quite versatile.
 
Should do - i think 9/4 or better is a fair price as he looked very green, and pulled hard in the National Stakes.
 
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