Cheltenham 2016/2017

gus said:
I wasn't expecting What About Carlo to be priced up at 33/1 for the first today and at those odds he has to be a bet.

He might not take to hurdles of course but, then again, he just might and as a 100-rated horse on the Flat getting weight from all his rivals and with plenty of soft ground form in the book he's far from the no-hoper his odds suggest.

It's not as if Ballyandy and Moon Racer have a huge edge in jumping experience. They've each jumped precisely eight flights in public (and made mistakes when they did).
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I decided not to do this race when I looked a the card but your post has had me mulling it over for a wee while.

Normally this is no ordinary novice hurdle with recent winners emerging with ORs in the mid-high 140s to low 150s (which under-estimated Altior, imo) and if WAC could translate accurately his decent Flat level first time up he'd be a low 140s horse, hence my dismissing him. However, there do appear to be flaws in the others and it might not be that hot a renewal after all so I've decided to follow you in with a token bet at the 33/1. Cheers.
 
Like Gus I thought the same thing. If you knew he'd taken to hurdles he would be 12/1 or thereabouts. Ground will be fine and he is a decent stamp of horse, looked worth a speculative e/w punt in a tricky race anyway.
 
Regarding the Greatwood I can't see a great deal of pace on so Sternrubin could just be the bet
Has winning form in big field handicaps from the front and yesterday where he got nailed at the death and 2 years ago in this race on Garde La Victoire show that Johnson knows his apples when it comes to judging pace from the front.
 
Did Tanlic just compared Douvan with Arkle and no one had any reactions? does everyone have him on ignore list or what? Tanlic, I admire your dedication for Douvan but between me and you he's probably not even fit to lace the shoes of his stablemate The Machine, let alone being in the same sentence as Himself.

You can make all you want about Fox Norton, though, the facts are he was 2 lengths in front of The Game Changer in the Arkle and 3 weeks later he was 18 behind the same horse. Had Fox Norton reproduced his Arkle run another 11-13 lengths beat was to be expected from Douvan. Now, what he achieved in this last run beating Special Tiara by 20 lengths and Simply Ned by 9, is without doubt on a different level to whatever he was doing as a novice. He improved tremendously over the summer and we'll see in the Tingle Creek how he performs against the best novices from last season in Ar Mad. Douvan will stay tucked in at home so we'll have to wait for the festival to learn anything new in regards to him.
 
EC, as a time man what do you make of the Timeform sectional summary for the Sunday? Fox Norton seems very short for a race 4 months away.
 
i'm not doing time analysis at the moment Archie..too "time" consuming:)

i think what they say is fair enough based on their findings

there is no doubt FN has improved..but its early days yet..he may well be a sire de grugy type that doesn't capture punters imaginations..but just keeps winning

i think Special Tiara isn't a marker for saturdays race..he doesn't mind slow ground..won at Kempton..but when you combine slow ground with a stiff finish it empties him.

Fox Norton strikes me as the type that might win an averagey sort of CC..but it wouldn't take much to be better than him
 
archie said:
EC, as a time man what do you make of the Timeform sectional summary for the Sunday? Fox Norton seems very short for a race 4 months away.
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I hope to have time to check my time figures tomorrow but I have FN on 174+p. Wouldn't take much improvement to win an above average Champion Chase in my opinion (considering Sire De Grugy was maybe 172 at his best) and if he is a 177/178 horse waiting to happen only Douvan at the top of his game can beat him. I am very happy with the 8/1 I took at the weekend.
 
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and what figures do you have Douvan at the top of his game? If Ar Mad returns well from his injury he could have a big say who wins the CC, the 25s will be long gone if he beats FN in the Tingle Creek.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I hope to have time to check my time figures tomorrow but I have FN on 174+p. Wouldn't take much improvement to win an above average Champion Chase in my opinion (considering Sire De Grugy was maybe 172 at his best) and if he is a 177/178 horse waiting to happen only Douvan at the top of his game can beat him. I am very happy with the 8/1 I took at the weekend.
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You should check your figures. You got Fox Norton higher than Sprinter Sacre got for winning the race last year,

He beat Simply Ned and a completely out of form Special Tiara. He was trounced 32 lengths by Douvan.

He's heading for the Tingle Creek? UDS is favourite but in the QMCC is longer odds than Fox Norton.........never quite get that.

You have got to throw Special Tiara run in the bin and look at reality 9 lengths superior to Simply Ned isn't good enough to be going to Cheltenham against any of the Mullins 3 and he will send something.

All about opinions but I can't for the life of me see where on earth you get that figure from???????
 
Aughex said:
and what figures do you have Douvan at the top of his game? If Ar Mad returns well from his injury he could have a big say who wins the CC, the 25s will be long gone if he beats FN in the Tingle Creek.
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Again worth cautioning that ar mad wasn't certain to run at Cheltenham last year even before the injury. Looking at his two chase runs at left handed tracks its easy to see why.

I'm a big fan of the horse, but not left handed.

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Also, lil Rockefeller looks a big price at 33s for the world hurdle. Only for having to give weight away he'd be 2 from 2 this season.

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Tanlic said:
You should check your figures. You got Fox Norton higher than Sprinter Sacre got for winning the race last year,

He beat Simply Ned and a completely out of form Special Tiara. He was trounced 32 lengths by Douvan.

He's heading for the Tingle Creek? UDS is favourite but in the QMCC is longer odds than Fox Norton.........never quite get that.

You have got to throw Special Tiara run in the bin and look at reality 9 lengths superior to Simply Ned isn't good enough to be going to Cheltenham against any of the Mullins 3 and he will send something.

All about opinions but I can't for the life of me see where on earth you get that figure from???????
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I suspect you're mixing up my figures and others'.

I have Sprinter Sacre some way higher in last year's race and he won much more comfortably.

It's all a question of how positively or otherwise you view any particular piece of form. I went positive last year via Somersby, taking him to have run to his best recent rating. I'm not sure he hit that level again last season so you could argue that there are grounds for downgrading the form, especially using Savello as a guide. I had Simply Ned running below form last season.

Everything about the race this season pointed to Simply Ned running to his best. I also read somewhere after the race that the stable felt he was in much better form than last year and really fancied him to go close. Clearly Special Tiara (which I backed) and everything else were miles off their best. I am throwing the ST run in the bin but at his best Simply Ned is a very decent type, roughly on a par with the likes of God's Own, maybe a couple of pounds short of the latter.

I have every respect for UDS but I only have him on 173 (for the Sodexo at Ascot and he couldn't match that in the CC) and he is more exposed than FN. I do hope he remains favourite for the Tingle Creek!

I like FN's profile. He wasn't all out to win (hence the '+') and is clearly on an upward curve (p) so there's no knowing when his form will plateau. I'm not saying he will win the CC. I'm just offering reasons why I thought 8/1 was a good price at the time.

Sire De Grugy won the race by only hitting 172, Dodging Bullets and the likes are around the same figure at their best. Un De Sceaux 173. Only the real greats get to the 180-ish mark. Sprinter Sacre at his best was a league above that again. I reckon FN is a 177/178 minimum waiting to happen. That would be good enough to win 8 out of 10 Champion Chases. That makes 8/1 value but Douvan might be better again but he isn't 8/1 :)
 
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littlelad said:
Also, lil Rockefeller looks a big price at 33s for the world hurdle. Only for having to give weight away he'd be 2 from 2 this season.

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That looks a good spot. Unfortunately, the best price I can see at oddschecker is 20/1.
 
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Forr fooks sake behave yourselves. Little Rockerfeller came to the end of his tether at Ascot when looking like holding on 2 out. He'd be tailed off in the world hurdle as he's simply not bred for 2m4f let alone 3 miles round Cheltenham in that class.......he should be 1000/1
 
Tanlic said:
For fooks sake behave yourselves. Thought you would know better Dessie!!! Little Rockerfeller came to the end of his tether at Ascot when looking like holding on 2 out. He'd be tailed off in the world hurdle as he's simply not bred for 2m4f let alone 3 miles round Cheltenham in that class.......he should be 1000/1
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lil rockerfeller was giving Yanworth 4lb yesterday..so would have won by 3 if handicapping works..he is dfeying his breeding as it is..has improved every race..so to me is a contender..if he isn't..then forget Yanworth..because Yanworth should have buried Lil yesterday..but didn't
 
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