Cheltenham 2016/2017

its not hard to understand at all..fences are higher..whats hard to understand about that?

deary me..people do over complicate the obvious sometimes

you will be telling me next there is some algorithm to explain it:)
 
i've got to ask as i keep seeing this word..is algorithm like a new word to tell someone they don't understand something?..like a badge of supposed superiority.....so you throw in "algorithm" just to make it seem harder than fookin common sense tells you it is..i am referring to the presidential thread as well as this one..ffs..putting algos in a reply impresses me about as much as throwing in butt plug tbh..is it some new twatter tactic or summat?

if it is..A.. it don't work..and B..its sh1te:)

and if it is a new trend..it needs destroying at birth before we enter a new age of bolloxy meaningless talk..a bit similar to the people that lift the accent on a word at the end of a sentence..thats one that i have noticed many doing these days..not sure where that came form..but its really annoying
 
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higher obstacles means using different muscles for jumping them and those muscles may be less developed, means getting tired alot faster than over hurdles, means not the same class. Fences in turn blunt the speed for some horses and thats why chasers going back hurdling are also a different class for when they were chasing. If you over-simply things and say these are the same sports, then you'd assume Thistlecrack would beat these animals by 50+ but no, he's beating them by 1-5 lengths because he's a much better hurdler. Coneygree was a much worse hurdler than he turned out chaser, if he had stayed hurdles he would've been just average, he went fences and he was brilliant. There are few dual-purpose horses. There's no algo discussion going on, I think you're referring to how I'm used to betting. I don't use emotions, I use figures. As for Coneygree, if he turns out he's fine after his injury and wins the Betfair Chase then why won't he be installed as the GC favourite?
 
It's all price related. If Thistlecrack had gone novice chasing last year and put in exactly the same performances as he has done he'd likely be fav for the RSA but wouldn't be shorter than 8s and there would be no negativity.
 
There was a chap in the parade ring today, don't know his name but he was being interviewed by Oli Bell. Happened to catch it on a screen in The Centaur on the way through but it was a bit noisy in there so couldn't hear everything. I think he was suggesting Thistlecrack had a chest three times as wide as some of the other horses which in turn could mean he has a larger than average heart like Sprinter Sacre.
 
higher obstacles means using different muscles for jumping them and those muscles may be less developed, means getting tired alot faster than over hurdles, means not the same class. Fences in turn blunt the speed for some horses and thats why chasers going back hurdling are also a different class for when they were chasing. If you over-simply things and say these are the same sports, then you'd assume Thistlecrack would beat these animals by 50+ but no, he's beating them by 1-5 lengths because he's a much better hurdler. Coneygree was a much worse hurdler than he turned out chaser, if he had stayed hurdles he would've been just average, he went fences and he was brilliant. There are few dual-purpose horses. There's no algo discussion going on, I think you're referring to how I'm used to betting. I don't use emotions, I use figures. As for Coneygree, if he turns out he's fine after his injury and wins the Betfair Chase then why won't he be installed as the GC favourite?

there are a good few chasers who were hurdlers that overcame these "disadvantages..Night Nurse and Dawn Run just off top of my head,,chasers are slower than hurdlers as a whole..its the nature of the game

you don't need to educate me about Coneygree..i had him as 180 horse when he won the GC not 172 like the oHR had him..he's a monster

i personally want to see thistlecrack and coneygree in the gc..going at it it..thats what the game is about..i don't understand people who want thistlecrack to fail..i think there is something odd about that..its like some downer on good horses mindset that is beyond me..we want the best against the best

the horse has only been twice over fences..give him a chance..i've seen a lot worse than him at same stage go on to great things...and the hurdling races he has run in..are good race experience...its not like he has had soft hurdle race introduction to his career..he is a battle hardened horse
 
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Thistlecrack is magnificent animal but still has a bit to learn to win GC. Hope he does as I love his exuberance.

He needs 'handling' by a jockey. He can't carry on jumping like that. Scudamore was tugging at every single fence. I was worried for him - the horse.

Hoping Board Of Trade was okay - walked in but followed by horse ambulance.
 
Any opinions on the Greatwood? Can a mark of 145 stop Sternrubin? He's got the form in the book that's for sure. Also hoping to see Wolf Of Windlesham run a good race, realistically a top 6 finish would be decent for him.

I fancy the above two against the rest of the field, but I don't rule out the favourite or the likes of North Hill Harvey to improve beyond what they've done so far. Also look forward to reading the man-in-forms Desert Orchid's preview.

Sternrubin 11/1 e/w
Wolf Of Windlesham 40/1 e/w
 
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There was a chap in the parade ring today, don't know his name but he was being interviewed by Oli Bell. Happened to catch it on a screen in The Centaur on the way through but it was a bit noisy in there so couldn't hear everything. I think he was suggesting Thistlecrack had a chest three times as wide as some of the other horses which in turn could mean he has a larger than average heart like Sprinter Sacre.

That was Paul Morrisson.
 
Aye; he's any amount of speed between fences, but he's losing ground both over the obstacles and away from them and that's going to make life difficult in top class chases.
Long Run had similar problems but didn't fare too badly (albeit with much more experience), but if Thistlecrack were mine he'd be back over hurdles tomorrow
 
The discussion surrounding Thistlecrack fascinates me.

There's been a lot of "recency bias" talk on the forum of late and this might be in play here.

It doesn't seem all that long ago that there was outcry about the prospect of the novice Gloria Victis running in the Gold Cup yet he was in a strong challenging position when taking a fatal fall. That seemed to quash whatever little enthusiasm there was for the idea of a novice taking in the race.

Then along came Coneygree. Now suddenly the Gold Cup is a "sensible" target for a potentially top-class novice.

What price might More Of That have been had he gone for the Gold Cup instead of the RSA?

I think that for all I admire Thistlecrack, this is not a Coneygree, who was a much more convincing jumper as a novice - a bit more like Gloria Victis.
 
Guys, while some crab Thistlecrack I can't go there. The fookin thing is a machine but he has a bit to go before we all start getting excited..........wait that's not fair.............get excited if you want.

This could be the build up to the greatest match in racing history since Arkle V Mill House.

No doubt Thistlecrack stays every yard of 3 miles plus but if Douvan does......boy are we in for a treat


Thistlecrack looks mature enough to give the King George a crack as does Douvan...........come on Tizzard and Mullins lets get it on................Douvan V Thistlecrack duel of the Champions...............I'm going back to the pub guys talk later ;0)
 
..and stay there, Douvan has beaten nothing and has a long way to be called a champion. And no one will send either TC or Douvan for the KG, just save your money for another pint.
 
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It doesn't seem all that long ago that there was outcry about the prospect of the novice Gloria Victis running in the Gold Cup yet he was in a strong challenging position when taking a fatal fall. That seemed to quash whatever little enthusiasm there was for the idea of a novice taking in the race.

Then along came Coneygree. Now suddenly the Gold Cup is a "sensible" target for a potentially top-class novice.

Much of the fuss about Gloria Victis was to do with hatred for Martin Pipe. The letters page of the Post after the horse's death was a disgrace.

When "proper jumping folk" like Hourigan (Beef Or Salmon), Bradstock or Tizzard target the race with a novice you hardly hear a murmur.
 
I think that for all I admire Thistlecrack, this is not a Coneygree, who was a much more convincing jumper as a novice - a bit more like Gloria Victis.

Not forgetting, of course, that Coneygree made his debut over shorter, which places much more of a premium on swift and accurate jumping.
 
I wasn't expecting What About Carlo to be priced up at 33/1 for the first today and at those odds he has to be a bet.

He might not take to hurdles of course but, then again, he just might and as a 100-rated horse on the Flat getting weight from all his rivals and with plenty of soft ground form in the book he's far from the no-hoper his odds suggest.

It's not as if Ballyandy and Moon Racer have a huge edge in jumping experience. They've each jumped precisely eight flights in public (and made mistakes when they did).
 
Much of the fuss about Gloria Victis was to do with hatred for Martin Pipe. The letters page of the Post after the horse's death was a disgrace.

When "proper jumping folk" like Hourigan (Beef Or Salmon), Bradstock or Tizzard target the race with a novice you hardly hear a murmur.

As I recall, there was plenty of discussion regarding the wisdom of sending those novices for the race but you're right about the vitriol towards Pipe.
 
2.30 STANJAMES GREATWOOD HCAP HDLE (GR3) Winner £56,950 17 runners 2m87y Good CH4
[TABLE="width: 711"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]NO.[/TD]
[TD]FORM[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]HORSE[/TD]
[TD]AGE[/TD]
[TD]WGT[/TD]
[TD]TRAINER RTF%[/TD]
[TD]JOCKEY[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]TS[/TD]
[TD]MON
(167+)[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]RPR[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]206-47[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]John Constable[SUP]15[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]10-10[/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams[SUP]50[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Conor Ring[SUP]3[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]169[/TD]
[TD]+ d[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]330-31[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Hargam[SUP]28[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]11-12[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson[SUP]71[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Andrew Tinkler[/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD]144[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]? d?[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]11U5-2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Leoncavallo[SUP]22[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]10-13[/TD]
[TD]Ben Pauling[SUP]100[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Mr Alex Ferguson[SUP]7[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]140[/TD]
[TD]146[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]p +7?[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]1161-5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Wolf Of Windlesham[SUP]22[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]10-10[/TD]
[TD]Stuart Edmunds[SUP]100[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Joshua Moore[/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]5/375-[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Song Light[SUP]18F[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]10-3[/TD]
[TD]Seamus Mullins[SUP]17[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Kevin Jones[SUP]5[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]130[/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD]165[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]231-35[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Ch´Tibello[SUP]15[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]11-3[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton[SUP]61[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Paddy Brennan[/TD]
[TD]144[/TD]
[TD]147[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]1300-3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Modus[SUP]15[/SUP]h[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]10-13[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[SUP]50[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Harry Cobden[SUP]3[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]140[/TD]
[TD]147[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]++[/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]11P-54[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Thunder Sheik[SUP]50[/SUP]tp[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]10-2[/TD]
[TD]Nigel Twiston-Davies[SUP]57[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Ryan Hatch[SUP]3[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]129[/TD]
[TD]142[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1P30-1[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Sternrubin[SUP]15[/SUP]h[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]11-4[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs[SUP]83[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Richard Johnson[/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]148[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]200U5-[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Mad Jack Mytton[SUP]204[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]10-8[/TD]
[TD]Jonjo O´Neill[SUP]36[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Aidan Coleman[/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD]163[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]158[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]211113[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Rossetti[SUP]71[/SUP]h[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]10-11[/TD]
[TD]Neil Mulholland[SUP]64[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Noel Fehily[/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]144[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]159[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]4-3110[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Jack The Wire[SUP]8[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]10-0[/TD]
[TD]Denis Gerard Hogan[SUP]57[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]D G Hogan[/TD]
[TD]126[/TD]
[TD]146[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[TD]161[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]121-3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Brain Power[SUP]201[/SUP]p[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]11-4[/TD]
[TD]Nicky Henderson[SUP]71[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Paul Moloney[/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]116[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]111-[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Winter Escape[SUP]260[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]11-1[/TD]
[TD]Alan King[SUP]80[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Barry Geraghty[/TD]
[TD]142[/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]21294-[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]North Hill Harvey[SUP]219[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]11-0[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton[SUP]61[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Harry Skelton[/TD]
[TD]141[/TD]
[TD]143[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]174?[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]141P-[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]A Hare Breath[SUP]239[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]10-10[/TD]
[TD]Ben Pauling[SUP]100[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Nico de Boinville[/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]146[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD]++[/TD]
[TD]156[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]21P1-0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Cyrius Moriviere[SUP]23[/SUP]t[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]10-8[/TD]
[TD]Ben Pauling[SUP]100[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]Maurice Linehan[SUP]3[/SUP][/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]95[/TD]
[TD]160[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This race is as much about reading beyond the form as the form itself. For example, why isn’t de Boinville riding for Henderson? Why isn’t Moloney on John Constable? Why has Geraghty opted for Winter Escape over more obviously well-handicapped runners for the same retaining owner? Why is Harry Skelton on North Hill Harvey when Ch’tibello would appear to have a very strong chance of turning round the form with Sternrubin and perhaps Modus?

I think the ratings might only be a guide to unravelling the complexity of this race and I’m drawn to A Hare Breath, North Hill Harvey, Winter Escape and Leoncavallo against the field.

The stewards looked into why A Hare Breath was pulled up on his final appearance of last season when he had gone from hacking to nothing. He had cantered up over C&D the time before (2m5f at Kempton) so it’s hard to conclude that his stamina just gave out in a strongly-run race. I’ve now read somewhere that he bled. Skelton claims North Hill Harvey “would nearly have been second to Altior in the Supreme if he hadn’t stepped on the second-last” so I watched the replay and, sure enough, he was going as well as any of the placed horses at the time of the mistake. Rating him as ‘only’ third in a dead-heat with Buveur D’Air that day would make him a 155 horse (174 on the ratings table) and very well handicapped off 141 here. It would explain why he’s a best-price 9/1 for this but it more or less assumes Skelton’s remarks can be taken at face value. Winter Escape is a pretty hot favourite but will need to be as good as Sceau Royal to justify his price. I can’t bring myself to back him at skinny odds. Leoncavallo could give us a proper line to Sceau Royal. His rating is based on my going high with the race in which he was second to Sceau Royal here but his rider was unable to claim his allowance that day. He will here, hence the possibility of adding another 7lbs to his rating.

Cases can obviously be made for many others as should be the case with this now the most competitive handicap hurdle in the first half of the season.

(My own figures are those in the column headed MON with the figure in brackets the target rating for an average renewal.)
 
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Paul Moloney rides Brain Power at the request of the owner. De Boinville has a suspected broken arm from yesterday.

Thanks, tiggers. I knew about De Boinville but had written most of the synopsis before yesterday's racing. Didn't know about Moloney but I imagine if this was to be John Constable's day he'd have politely declined the request (unless there was a compelling monetary consideration involved).
 
Ok Aughex and co don't forget this................Douvan reminds me of a greyhound they way he movies between fences. Arkle had that same asset.

Now Sprinter Sacre and Thistlecrack have huge engines that allow them to travel at speeds above normal.......you can call it high cruising speed...which is is. BUT even Sprinter Sacre could not be accused of having a tremendous turn of foot. He won his race by stepping up a gear to full throttle 3 and 4 fences from home and settles his races in that fashion.

Thistlecrack also has tremendous pace and settle races in similar fashion but of the 3 he would be the less likely to carry that talent into Grade 1.

I reckon Douvan will do the same thing he did to Fox Norton and Co to anything that crosses his path....this fella is that good trust me.

Fox norton may not be a superstar but he has done better than anything Thistlecrack has beaten..........he hacked up at Cheltenham in April and agin in October in a 13k to the winner race . Yet he couldn't as much as make Douvan break sweat........32 lengths he was beaten last time??????????????????????

We race because Arke beat horses giving them 30lbs plus but Douvan beats a classy animal 32 lengths and he's beat nothing.........Aug........go to bed yer rippin my nittin lol
 
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