Cheltenham 2016/2017

Have been putting up a thread* for the past couple of years for the Festival, based on horses wearing first time headgear excluding cheekpieces and tongue ties, which has paid its way going blind on every qualifier.No idea what the stats are for non Festival races, but we shall see

* For reference

http://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/foru...em-for-the-Festival&highlight=system+Festival


Incidentally the big chase has sixteen runners so we know what's going to happen........probably :)
 
I've been following that DG and have a theory - especially in the handicap races. The horses are not off until March, their mark drops and then the headgear offers an easy explanation when the horse bolts up in March.

Or of course it could just be that it shuts out the crowds and helps them concentrate but I prefer my conspiracy theory :)
 
Don't think I'll be able to resist the urge to take a fair bit of the 7/1 on Village Vic. An absolutely splendid beast that has taken well to both this track and the Old Course. He's higher in the weights than last time, but it looked to me to simply be his stamina running dry. On this less testing ground, I can see him again getting his own way out in front and being too difficult to pass.

Can make a case for Aso and Buywise reversing the form at the weights, but neither are convincing jumpers. Kylemore Lough looks an obvious danger, particularly if he is ridden more prominently to make use of his very good jumping.
 
wilsonl said:
I've been following that DG and have a theory - especially in the handicap races. The horses are not off until March, their mark drops and then the headgear offers an easy explanation when the horse bolts up in March.

Or of course it could just be that it shuts out the crowds and helps them concentrate but I prefer my conspiracy theory :)
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I also subscribe to this interpretation of the first time headgear effect and given what we know about buywise it seems very unlikely that he qualifies as a "handicap-plot".

However, he's not the only 1st time headgear in the field. Down at the bottom of the weights is Full Shift and given connections (well, owner) he may be a qualifier. Has ran 3 times at the Cheltenham festival so I get the impression they think something of him. He was 4th at the festival this year over the same distance, off a 5 pound higher mark. Last win was around Kempton off a 3 pound lower mark on a course which was perhaps a bit sharp for him.

The fact that Geraghty is not on-board doesn't put me off. It's speculative, but I'll have an ew bet at 20/1
 
What do we make of the way Geraghty is riding at present? I don't watch a lot of Jumps racing, but was at Aintree on Sat and he seemed to struggle to do a thing right. Novice hurdlers not settling or jumping, and certainly didn't excel on Minella Rocco. A rider that was an asset 2 or 3 seasons ago when deputising for McCoy, I'm not sure I'd say the same at present.
 
At least he isn't swapping his pi*ss with Noel Fehily in the Weighing Room, you Flat-gobbling troll!

:cool:

FWIW, I think Geraghty is suffering from the same thing that afflicted McCoy, to wit, a good jockey getting on too many moderate horses, for an owner with a large collection of expensive hounds, the majority of which are trained by a guesser/chancer.
 
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I seen this elsewhere today, take it as you will, probably with lots of salt....
"My mate was talking to Ricci on his flight to London on WED confirms Djakadam is race fit, Annie or Faugheen will unlikely be running at X mas and its a race to be fit for March."
 
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Wouldn't you just know it. Applying the "little system for the Festival" criteria to today's racing would have turned up just one qualifier.

Thistle Guide :whistle:

Call To Order was wearing first time cheekpieces but, applying the criteria strictly, didn't qualify.


Bearing in mind Lee's theory above, I wonder what results we would get if we filtered the criteria to handicaps only at the Festival, we'll have a look when the time comes.
 
Said on here somewhere MTOY would not make the Champion Hurdle this year. I could be wrong but I reckon he's gone and ok Henderson did warn against the ground at Haydock but he looked less affected by it than Old Guard was.

The New One may have a hurdle race or two left in him but they are crazy if they don't at least try him over fences.

Add Melodic Rendezvous to the pot we got a right load of old crocks competing for this good prize.

He's never as much as looked a Champion Hurdle horse before today but it's little wonder Mr Miyagi is as low as 7/2 to win this.

On their best form The New One and MTOY should fight out the finish and that may well be the case

BUT!!!!! Old Guard came under pressure way too soon at Haydock for it not to have been the ground and it is a Saturday and PN loves his Saturdays

In what is a poor contest Old Guard 9/1 EW might prove a good bet
 
This International Hurdle is a sad indictment of 2 mile hurdlers this side of the Irish Sea. Hounds the lot of them.
 
davidjohnson said:
What do we make of the way Geraghty is riding at present? I don't watch a lot of Jumps racing, but was at Aintree on Sat and he seemed to struggle to do a thing right. Novice hurdlers not settling or jumping, and certainly didn't excel on Minella Rocco. A rider that was an asset 2 or 3 seasons ago when deputising for McCoy, I'm not sure I'd say the same at present.
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Riding as good as ever David I see 34% 21% 19% which are good averages. I agree with Grassy Jonjo gets a load of **** arriving at Jackdaw with green and gold ribbons tied round their ass and a not saying train this......That said the man has one the Gold Cup The National and gave JP the happiest days racing in his life.

People can't help but think McCoy would have won that when Barry gets beat in a tight finish which is probably crap.

I honestly can't say I have see him ride badly............Minella Rocco's form may be meaningless come March
 
To early to condemn Jonjo to training oblivion imho. Call To Order won well yesterday. The expectations have always been high of him.
 
I found this section interesting "Such notable absentees and a maximum field of seven could allow Thistlecrack to get into a critical rhythm early on - a luxury that might not otherwise have been possible"

Josses Hill and Silviniaco Conti would be up here if there were 7 or 27 runners and they won't be hanging about waiting for Cue Card to come cruising past.

Thistlecrack has bags of speed at his own level. Now the only question is can he take this giant leap up in class over fences. It's a question of class not jumping which he does like an old pro imo
 
there's no class comparison between hurdles and fences, TC over 3m+ hurdles would take the scalp of every single modern GC winner.
 
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