Cheltenham 2020 / 2021
- Thread starter Diamond Geezer
- Start date
:lol:
granger
Senior Jockey
The import VAT issue on horses was covered by Nick Luck on his own podcast yesterday
:lol::lol: Irish horses.
Eight weeks to go and eight favourites to focus on
The countdown to the Cheltenham Festival is well and truly on, with the tapes due to rise for the opening Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle in no more than eight weeks' time.
As we prepare for an altogether unique Cheltenham experience, with fans this year likely to be watching from afar due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Racing Post tipster Graeme Rodway has analysed eight current festival favourites as we look ahead to jump racing's biggest week.
Horse: Appreciate It
Race: Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Ante-post price: 5-2 favourite
Top-class bumper performer who was second behind Ferny Hollow in the championship event at this meeting last season and has improved significantly over hurdles. He is unbeaten in both starts over timber and looked a strong galloper when bolting up by nine lengths in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. That was over 2m, but he shapes like he might want further in time and might be vulnerable to a speedier type, so makes limited appeal.
Horse: Shishkin
Race: Arkle Chase
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Ante-post price: 8-11 favourite
Won the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at this fixture last season but is already a better chaser and looks in the same mould as his stable's great two-milers Sprinter Sacre and Altior, who both won this race. Shishkin recorded a Racing Post Rating of 170 when landing the Wayward Lad at Kempton and would be a big player in the Champion Chase judged on that lofty figure. It will be a major surprise if he is beaten and he looks the British banker of the meeting.
Horse: Epatante
Race: Champion Hurdle
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Ante-post price: 9-4 favourite
An impressive winner of this race last year but she has failed to show the same level of form this season and was comfortably beaten by Silver Streak in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton last time, a race she had won easily en route to victory here last year. She didn't jump with her usual fluency that day and an aura of invincibility has gone. Take her on.
Horse: Monkfish
Race: Festival Novices' Chase
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Ante-post price: 7-4 favourite
Landed the Albert Bartlett at the festival last year and has improved for the switch to chasing this season, winning two from two including a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. That display wasn't as impressive as his chasing debut at Fairyhouse, though, and this race often turns into a war of attrition that doesn't always suit classy types like Monkfish. He is the right favourite but isn't unbeatable and makes the market for a bet on something else.
Horse: Chacun Pour Soi
Race: Queen Mother Champion Chase
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Ante-post price: 11-8 favourite
Chacun Pour Soi is the outstanding two-mile chaser in Britain and Ireland when he makes it to the track, but he has proved fragile and isn't the easiest to train. He has won five of his six starts for Willie Mullins since March 2019, including three Grade 1s, but has yet to race in Britain and was a late absentee from this race last year. If he gets to the race he is likely to win, but his physical problems mean he is risky without the non-runner no-bet guarantee.
Horse: Envoi Allen
Race: Marsh Novices' Chase
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Ante-post price: even-money favourite
An unbeaten 11 out of 11 under rules and arguably the most exciting horse lining up all week, Envoi Allen has looked a superstar at every stage of his career and is already a two-time festival winner. He landed the Champion Bumper two years ago and added the Ballymore 12 months ago, but this will probably be his toughest test. His wide-margin victory in the Grade 1 Drinmore at Fairyhouse in November proved he is equally good over fences - he followed up in a Grade 3 at Punchestown on Sunday - and he's the most likely winner.
Horse: Paisley Park
Race: Stayers' Hurdle
Trainer: Emma Lavelle
Ante-post price: 3-1 favourite
Paisley Park has been the outstanding staying hurdler in Britain and Ireland over the last two years and made it eight wins from his last ten starts when pulling rank on young pretender Thyme Hill to land a second Long Walk at Ascot last month. A power-packed finish is his trademark and Cheltenham's undulating terrain brings out the best in him. He probably isn't as good as he was when he won this two years ago, though, and is vulnerable to an improver.
Horse: Al Boum Photo
Race: Cheltenham Gold Cup
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Ante-post price: 7-2 favourite
Dual Gold Cup winners don't come along too often and triple Gold Cup heroes are even rarer, so can Al Boum Photo join the pantheon of greats? He isn't flashy and doesn't set an obscenely high standard, but he is the ideal Gold Cup horse - he travels, jumps and stays well. He looks sure to run well again, but Don Cossack, Long Run and Bobs Worth have all been better Gold Cup winners in the last century according to Racing Post Ratings and Al Boum Photo might come a cropper if there is a real star chaser in this year's race.
The countdown to the Cheltenham Festival is well and truly on, with the tapes due to rise for the opening Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle in no more than eight weeks' time.
As we prepare for an altogether unique Cheltenham experience, with fans this year likely to be watching from afar due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Racing Post tipster Graeme Rodway has analysed eight current festival favourites as we look ahead to jump racing's biggest week.
Horse: Appreciate It
Race: Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Ante-post price: 5-2 favourite
Top-class bumper performer who was second behind Ferny Hollow in the championship event at this meeting last season and has improved significantly over hurdles. He is unbeaten in both starts over timber and looked a strong galloper when bolting up by nine lengths in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. That was over 2m, but he shapes like he might want further in time and might be vulnerable to a speedier type, so makes limited appeal.
Horse: Shishkin
Race: Arkle Chase
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Ante-post price: 8-11 favourite
Won the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at this fixture last season but is already a better chaser and looks in the same mould as his stable's great two-milers Sprinter Sacre and Altior, who both won this race. Shishkin recorded a Racing Post Rating of 170 when landing the Wayward Lad at Kempton and would be a big player in the Champion Chase judged on that lofty figure. It will be a major surprise if he is beaten and he looks the British banker of the meeting.
Horse: Epatante
Race: Champion Hurdle
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Ante-post price: 9-4 favourite
An impressive winner of this race last year but she has failed to show the same level of form this season and was comfortably beaten by Silver Streak in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton last time, a race she had won easily en route to victory here last year. She didn't jump with her usual fluency that day and an aura of invincibility has gone. Take her on.
Horse: Monkfish
Race: Festival Novices' Chase
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Ante-post price: 7-4 favourite
Landed the Albert Bartlett at the festival last year and has improved for the switch to chasing this season, winning two from two including a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. That display wasn't as impressive as his chasing debut at Fairyhouse, though, and this race often turns into a war of attrition that doesn't always suit classy types like Monkfish. He is the right favourite but isn't unbeatable and makes the market for a bet on something else.
Horse: Chacun Pour Soi
Race: Queen Mother Champion Chase
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Ante-post price: 11-8 favourite
Chacun Pour Soi is the outstanding two-mile chaser in Britain and Ireland when he makes it to the track, but he has proved fragile and isn't the easiest to train. He has won five of his six starts for Willie Mullins since March 2019, including three Grade 1s, but has yet to race in Britain and was a late absentee from this race last year. If he gets to the race he is likely to win, but his physical problems mean he is risky without the non-runner no-bet guarantee.
Horse: Envoi Allen
Race: Marsh Novices' Chase
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Ante-post price: even-money favourite
An unbeaten 11 out of 11 under rules and arguably the most exciting horse lining up all week, Envoi Allen has looked a superstar at every stage of his career and is already a two-time festival winner. He landed the Champion Bumper two years ago and added the Ballymore 12 months ago, but this will probably be his toughest test. His wide-margin victory in the Grade 1 Drinmore at Fairyhouse in November proved he is equally good over fences - he followed up in a Grade 3 at Punchestown on Sunday - and he's the most likely winner.
Horse: Paisley Park
Race: Stayers' Hurdle
Trainer: Emma Lavelle
Ante-post price: 3-1 favourite
Paisley Park has been the outstanding staying hurdler in Britain and Ireland over the last two years and made it eight wins from his last ten starts when pulling rank on young pretender Thyme Hill to land a second Long Walk at Ascot last month. A power-packed finish is his trademark and Cheltenham's undulating terrain brings out the best in him. He probably isn't as good as he was when he won this two years ago, though, and is vulnerable to an improver.
Horse: Al Boum Photo
Race: Cheltenham Gold Cup
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Ante-post price: 7-2 favourite
Dual Gold Cup winners don't come along too often and triple Gold Cup heroes are even rarer, so can Al Boum Photo join the pantheon of greats? He isn't flashy and doesn't set an obscenely high standard, but he is the ideal Gold Cup horse - he travels, jumps and stays well. He looks sure to run well again, but Don Cossack, Long Run and Bobs Worth have all been better Gold Cup winners in the last century according to Racing Post Ratings and Al Boum Photo might come a cropper if there is a real star chaser in this year's race.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Over last dozen or so years that last bit about being vulnerable to speedier types could have been applied to half the winners of the race. It's a grinders race. Plus this renewal lacks depth.
Frankel
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2014
- Messages
- 4,942
Who do you take him on with?
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granger
Senior Jockey
Big Getaway is out for season
History says that more than half of them will get beat.
2 from 8 that were 3/1 or less turned over last season for example.
Of those I think barring a fall Shishkin, Envoi Allen, and Monkfish are rock solid, and I can find reasons to get the others beat, including Epatante who needs to return back to her best after Kempton.
Chacun would join them but he's injury prone and he's never been round Cheltenham. If he turns up I don't see any of the others beating him though.
I don't think I've ever said the three novice chase favourites are the most solid before.
2 from 8 that were 3/1 or less turned over last season for example.
Of those I think barring a fall Shishkin, Envoi Allen, and Monkfish are rock solid, and I can find reasons to get the others beat, including Epatante who needs to return back to her best after Kempton.
Chacun would join them but he's injury prone and he's never been round Cheltenham. If he turns up I don't see any of the others beating him though.
I don't think I've ever said the three novice chase favourites are the most solid before.
This is worrying from Jessie in the RP and be interesting to know whether "...vets to pay to get all these forms done..." refers to per journey or per horse.
Jessica Harrington has criticised the "seriously annoying" level of extra paperwork involved in sending runners to Britain from Ireland in the aftermath of Brexit.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup-winning trainer has sent Grand National runner-up Magic Of Light over to compete in the Grade 2 Matchbook Betting Podcast Mares' Hurdle (1.15) at Ascot on Saturday.
Harrington, who will stay in Ireland rather than make the trip, says the new rules and regulations required for the transport of the mare have added €700 on top of the usual costs.
Last week Willie Mullins expressed concern over extra VAT charges on sending horses to Britain after Brexit, although his fears were eased as he sent Grangee to Market Rasen on Saturday without any extra charge being levied.
Speaking about the new process, Harrington told Sky Sports Racing: "We've got it organised, as far as I can tell. She is leaving here this afternoon and will be at Ascot at some point in the early afternoon.
"It's more the paperwork, that's the problem and what costs money. Before, we could just drive to the ferry, get on one end and off the other, and the only costs you had were the box, diesel and the lads you took.
"Now we have all this paperwork to do for the Department of Agriculture and vets to pay to get all these forms done. That's what is so seriously annoying.
"I knew this was going to happen because I know what it was like before we had the Tripartite Agreement and we were all in the EU."
Jessica Harrington has criticised the "seriously annoying" level of extra paperwork involved in sending runners to Britain from Ireland in the aftermath of Brexit.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup-winning trainer has sent Grand National runner-up Magic Of Light over to compete in the Grade 2 Matchbook Betting Podcast Mares' Hurdle (1.15) at Ascot on Saturday.
Harrington, who will stay in Ireland rather than make the trip, says the new rules and regulations required for the transport of the mare have added €700 on top of the usual costs.
Last week Willie Mullins expressed concern over extra VAT charges on sending horses to Britain after Brexit, although his fears were eased as he sent Grangee to Market Rasen on Saturday without any extra charge being levied.
Speaking about the new process, Harrington told Sky Sports Racing: "We've got it organised, as far as I can tell. She is leaving here this afternoon and will be at Ascot at some point in the early afternoon.
"It's more the paperwork, that's the problem and what costs money. Before, we could just drive to the ferry, get on one end and off the other, and the only costs you had were the box, diesel and the lads you took.
"Now we have all this paperwork to do for the Department of Agriculture and vets to pay to get all these forms done. That's what is so seriously annoying.
"I knew this was going to happen because I know what it was like before we had the Tripartite Agreement and we were all in the EU."
G-G
Senior Jockey
I would have thought horses coming over would be classed as temporary imports , and as coming to race and not for sale, could come in on a carnet so would be exempt from paying any import costs? It's a long time since I had to raise them but can't believe they cost that much? Time for negotiations for the same/similar type of tri agreement the UK/France and Germany had before Brexit for the movement of horses.
Beef or Salmon
Rookie
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2013
- Messages
- 1,024
Yes they would need to travel under an ATA Carnet which are issued by the Chamber of Commerce in Ireland and is for all intents and purposes a guarantee in case the horse remians in the UK, I suspect the costs being referred to by Jessie Harrington is the Health Certificates needed for live animals coming back to the EU, I would imagine the UK have the same requirements coming in. A single Carnet can be used for multiple horses but a seperate health certificate is needed for each animal.
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Not sure PJ. The Irish horses add immensely (aka make) to the event, but the £100M economic contribution the visitors make is the golden egg. If that isn't happening then you'll still have racing, betting and ITV, RP and BHA will hype the bejaysus out of it anyway.
granger
Senior Jockey
At this stage, i'm retired from guessing
If anything i'd say stables will send over reduced numbers and Punchestown will have some very nice clashes
C'est La Guerre
Beef or Salmon
Rookie
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I think the reduced numbers is a very valid point and its hard to see any trainer sending over a horse just to have a runner at the festival, with the extra costs and more importantly the owners not having their day out, what it means of course is it should in theory make it somewhat easier to navigate the handicaps in particular.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
It wouldn't make me fancy GB any more. Whichever Irish runners do come over won't be social ones and they're just as likely to win the same [number of] races.
That's right. Generally speaking you'd expect it to have little impact on the graded races but in the handicaps and to a lesser extent, those graded races, it's simple maths that the less Irish runners taking part in each race then the less chance of winning.
Whether that is significant enough to justify wading into Britain at 5/2 is questionable but I don't foresee the landslide the Irish had in 2020 and 5/2 is bigger than it should be. Plus we don't have the plethora of Irish trained odds on favs this year that we've often had in the past, when you consider of the two horses likely to go off odds on this year; one is British.
Whether that is significant enough to justify wading into Britain at 5/2 is questionable but I don't foresee the landslide the Irish had in 2020 and 5/2 is bigger than it should be. Plus we don't have the plethora of Irish trained odds on favs this year that we've often had in the past, when you consider of the two horses likely to go off odds on this year; one is British.
DannyB
At the Start
Do you not think Latest Exhibition will give him a race?