Cheltenham Festival/ Corona Virus?

I just don’t get why cancelling sporting events would have a big impact. Regurgitating points from social media, but if they do, surely the tube, airports etc. all need to be closed down as well and cannot see that happening…

The latest on Betfair is:

2/1...to be off
1/2....to be on

I’ve taken a bit of 2’s on as think it’s massive value, but can’t get too involved because of the emotional conflict and it could just be me wishing and hoping we don’t have a problem!
 
Another thing, if they hold it behind closed doors, everyone will go down the pub to watch it, so you're just moving the problem elsewhere.
 
Italy: 239 new cases and 8 new deaths. Among the 1049 active cases, 401 (38%) are hospitalised and 105 (10%) are in intensive care. Among the 79 closed cases, 50 (63%) have recovered 29 (37%) have died. These numbers are from worldometers info.
 
That betting is slightly skewed by those who have a financial interest in the event going ahead taking out some “insurance” that it won’t go ahead. As was explained on the Sky racing preview programme this morning.
 
Couple more cases in England confirmed today. Rumoured over 30 now, though nothing confirmed.
 
See what happens after the COBRA meeting.

With Champions League games etc next week, and gatherings of large amounts in the next few weeks I can’t see anything happening. If they postpone Cheltenham they have to postpone all these. I can’t see that happening
 
Some serious money getting exchanged on the market as we speak.

I’d sway it won’t go ahead looking at the market. Too much money being laid on it will.
 
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it's the kind of market hard to price but i've seen a fair few educated theories of how things might well play out that have given me doubts for a few days.

i'm gonna be one grumpy sod if it falls by the wayside. can't see a closed doors option happening.
 
Reality is no one has a clue and the market is pure and simple guesswork being held up by people covering potential liabilities.
 
i do suspect there's a lot of emotional hedging in there, but to say nobody has a clue isn't correct. there's enough information out there to make an educated prediction that cases are likely to grow exponentially and precedents of events being cancelled in switzerland, france, italy and in asia.
 
JamesRB said:
i do suspect there's a lot of emotional hedging in there, but to say nobody has a clue isn't correct. there's enough information out there to make an educated prediction that cases are likely to grow exponentially and precedents of events being cancelled in switzerland, france, italy and in asia.
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Its complete guesswork as there is no precedent whatsoever. The WHO have said they have no idea how it will develop, but the boys on betfair have more info??
 
65 million plus people in the UK , 35 cases, 0.00005385 of the population. Earliest of those cases more than 14 days ago and didn't die from it and they were a Chinese tourist on holiday. If they call if off, even if that number increases 10 fold by next Tuesday; madness. But if it goes, Aintree has absolutely no chance. In the meantime, no mention whatsoever of any of the football matches which have taken place over the weekend being called off....59k at West Ham alone, never mind any other matches this weekend, not a PEEP about them being called off/played behind closed doors. What's the difference?
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Its complete guesswork as there is no precedent whatsoever. The WHO have said they have no idea how it will develop, but the boys on betfair have more info??
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there's precedents of what happens to sporting events set in multiple countries in this very situation in the last 10 days.

given cheltenham is a sporting event with thousands in attendance i'd say thats fairly relevant.

so give what i've said above, it seems it could come down to how likely are we looking at there being an outbreak. lets explore that possibility a bit more.

i think there's some encouragement uk have controlled things better than italy did, given a big cause of what happened there was an italian hospital basically let a guy with symptoms walk free for 10 days. so that side is encouraging.

nonetheless, the cases are growing in a similar way to italy, they had 79 cases last saturday when they started to call events off and now have around 1700 cases, we have 35 at the moment, so if our cases grow in a similar fashion this week (highly possible) how do you think things will play out?

before today the number of cases since the first in the uk, on january 31st, were pretty steady but 12 cases is a bit of a spike. the next few days are going to be crucial.

of course the "boys on betfair" dont have more info. but it doesn't take a long stretch to see a situation where things could easily turn to **** in terms of events such as cheltenham being called off in the next 9 days. hence my initial point about it being an educated prediction. the key word being prediction here rather than anyone betting into betfair having information others don't.
 
Are there any premiership games or European games scheduled in the UK this week?


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