Cheltenham Handicaps

I've taken 33/1 nrnb our old pal Chtibello for the Coral Cup. His profile for this is not dissimilar to when he overcame a string of disappointing runs to land a County Hurdle gamble and he's now lower in the weights for this yet just about likely to make the cut. A lot of the shorter-priced runners in the race might not get in and another gamble on the horse wouldn't surprise me. At the very worst it's decent sickness insurance!
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've taken 33/1 nrnb our old pal Chtibello for the Coral Cup. His profile for this is not dissimilar to when he overcame a string of disappointing runs to land a County Hurdle gamble and he's now lower in the weights for this yet just about likely to make the cut. A lot of the shorter-priced runners in the race might not get in and another gamble on the horse wouldn't surprise me. At the very worst it's decent sickness insurance!
Click to expand...

That is interesting as you are breaking one of our old forum pals (David Johnson's) golden rule of betting at the festival which is to focus on young improvers and ignore horses with better proven form sliding down the handicap, (as per his article on the sporting life recently).

Fwiw I looked again at the Coral Cup.

Mcfabulous has run only once in a large field handicap hurdle and he hacked up that day at Kempton around this time exactly two years ago.

He has been dropped a few pounds and although he will carry a big weight I reckon he can run a big race.
 
Last edited:
Marb said:
I looked again at the Coral Cup.

Mcfabulous has run only once in a large field handicap hurdle and he hacked up that day at Kempton around this time exactly two years ago.

He has been dropped a few pounds and although he will carry a big weight I reckon he can run a big race.
Click to expand...

You can hardly call 11-08 a big weight, if The Bosses Oscar holds his ground, Mcfabulous will be 7Lb off bottom weight. The handicaps are so suppressed they're hardly a handicap at all!
 
Last edited:
Maxbet said:
You can hardly call 11-08 a big weight, if The Bosses Oscar holds his ground, Mcfabulous will be 7Lb off bottom weight. The handicaps are so suppressed they're hardly a handicap at all!
Click to expand...

Yes fair point, Max.

I was reading Paul Nicholls comments on the Attheraces website for his cheltenham squad and he was quite positive about him.
 
I’ve always had it in my head that Mcfabulous doesn’t handle Cheltenham, ever since he was a turned over favourite in a bumper. He finished 2nd in a weak Relkeel but would have been 3rd if Brewinupastorm hadn’t fell and while his flop in the Cleeve was partly down to stable form and the trip, he’d be better off waiting until Aintree IMO, for all he was well beaten in the race last year.

Nicholls after his bumper defeat though admittedly he’ll have matured since then

“ McFabulous is a really nice horse. He won at Chepstow and was beaten at Cheltenham when he struggled down the hill”
 
I will look at his races around Chelteham again Lee but I think the other factors you mentioned were more pertinent than him simply not handling Chelteham. The fact he didn't get up the hill is the reason they are dropping him three furlongs from 3 miles to 2M5F, and I note they said they will go chasing next season.

If that's the biggest negative I will still back him.

He has had 11 runs over hurdles as an 8 year old, so while he is clearly not a novice, he still lightly raced enough to put in a big run in the Coral Cup.

He just looks like a horse who has a bit of class looking at his overall profile.

My old forum pal Danny had a system in place for this race as he said to me certain trends have previously identified the winner.

I have forgotten what that trends system was now. I wonder if Mcfabulous is a qualifier...
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
I've taken 33/1 nrnb our old pal Chtibello for the Coral Cup. His profile for this is not dissimilar to when he overcame a string of disappointing runs to land a County Hurdle gamble and he's now lower in the weights for this yet just about likely to make the cut. A lot of the shorter-priced runners in the race might not get in and another gamble on the horse wouldn't surprise me. At the very worst it's decent sickness insurance!
Click to expand...

Too old and the ability just isn't there any more.
 
Marb said:
That is interesting as you are breaking one of our old forum pals (David Johnson's) golden rule of betting at the festival which is to focus on young improvers and ignore horses with better proven form sliding down the handicap, (as per his article on the sporting life recently).
Click to expand...

In that case it was a rule I broke when I told the forum I was backing then 12yo Croco Bay in the Grand Annual.

Most on here know that my preferred MO focuses on improvers and potential but the longshot thread has thrown up plenty of of older winners and placers.

As I keep saying when it comes to stats, the only stat that matters is whether a horse is well handicapped.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In that case it was a rule I broke when I told the forum I was backing then 12yo Croco Bay in the Grand Annual.

Most on here know that my preferred MO focuses on improvers and potential but the longshot thread has thrown up plenty of of older winners and placers.

As I keep saying when it comes to stats, the only stat that matters is whether a horse is well handicapped.
Click to expand...

Yes I remember Croco Bay as I was on Bun Doran.

To really make the game pay you need to be able to successfully identify horses dropping in the handicap on a seemingly downward curve that might on any given day put in a big run and those improvers who are well handicapped.

All easier said than done, imho. Especially in 20+ runner races where you could easily have a mixture of both the above of type of horses.

I freely admit I haven't sussed it. I am 36 so I will keep trying!
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
In that case it was a rule I broke when I told the forum I was backing then 12yo Croco Bay in the Grand Annual.

Most on here know that my preferred MO focuses on improvers and potential but the longshot thread has thrown up plenty of older winners and placers.

As I keep saying when it comes to stats, the only stat that matters is whether a horse is well handicapped.
Click to expand...

Mister McGoldrick 66/1 in the plate...dropped 20 Lb over an 18 month period before absolutely sluicing in, at 11 years of age....won at 13 too performing at 145 OR
 
Maxbet said:
Mister McGoldrick 66/1 in the plate...dropped 20 Lb over an 18 month period before absolutely sluicing in, at 11 years of age....won at 13 too performing at 145 OR
Click to expand...

I have put up Elegant Escape as a Kim Muir bet on my Cheltenham blog based on a similiar scenario.

He has now dropped to 140 and although according to a recent preview of his cheltenham squad, Colin Tizzard now thinks he should be in veteran chases, I still think he must be one of the best handicapped horses in the field if he could rekindle a fraction of his old form.
 
Last edited:
Marb said:
I freely admit I haven't sussed it. I am 36 so I will keep trying!
Click to expand...

Blimey! I’m 81 and it’s still a mystery ;)

The first rule I was given was “Don’t bet on handicaps”. I have failed miserably to obey the rule over the years, but I do try to reserve serious bets for non-handicaps. I’ve never been able to get to grips properly with “form” and tend to rely much more on whether it looks (to me) like a horse is “ready for it” , either from what I see and/or how a trainer preps their horses. They are fun, though :).
 
Maxbet said:
Mister McGoldrick 66/1 in the plate...dropped 20 Lb over an 18 month period before absolutely sluicing in, at 11 years of age....won at 13 too performing at 145 OR
Click to expand...

Mister McGoldrick broke every stat and trend that year.
 
As interesting as it is I think I go along with “ Don’t get me wrong, none of this is to say that the Irish will take a beating in the handicaps. Such is the nature of these races, there could be another Galopin De Champs or Presenting Percy lurking in amongst the entries in the low-140s that an extra stone wouldn’t be able to stop from winning.”

Seems to me that the Irish are masters of the plot horse and a ten-ton truck wouldn’t stop most of them.
 
sunybay said:
most absurd article in a long time

it is quite obvious irish are in big advantage with the hcp figures
especially over hdls
it looks the irish domination will be at least as bigger as last year , very likely even more
Click to expand...

Yes, but why?

(By the way, great to see you posting, sunybay. Hope all is well with you and yours.)

I've said before, and it seems Barjon's thinking is along similar lines, the much larger Irish equine population means that trainers can run their Div II horses here and there, securing their handicap marks yet knowing all the while they have something at home chewing up these horses and spitting them out.

It's something I've assumed and allowed for over the last four or five years but it really hit home to me just what bandits they are when one of the biggest UK job horses probably since Unsinkable Boxer was thrashed by an Irish horse last year: Langer Dan losing to Galopin Des Champs, no less.
 
The Irish have most of the best horses and they have a far better racing calendar it's hardly a mystery why they currently win the majority of the handicaps.

If the UK were winning all the championship races and Ireland were wining all the handicaps then there might be a question to answer but right now it's perfectly plausible and any attempt to manipulate the handicap would be/is embarrassing.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
The Irish have most of the best horses and they have a far better racing calendar it's hardly a mystery why they currently win the majority of the handicaps.

If the UK were winning all the championship races and Ireland were wining all the handicaps then there might be a question to answer but right now it's perfectly plausible and any attempt to manipulate the handicap would be/is embarrassing.
Click to expand...

It’s not so much manipulation, beef, as knowing what you’ve got up your sleeve.
 
Back
Top