Cheltenham Handicaps

When you have an unexposed future G1 novice lurking in a handicap a couple of pounds more this year from the UK Handicapper won't make any difference to the result at all.

How many of the Irish novices that won last year wouldn't have won because they were two or three pounds worse off?

The powerful Irish stables are able to split graded horses up and target them between graded and handicaps from a long way out. The UK stables just don't have the same strength in depth to do it. The handicapper can do what he likes, but until the rules change so novices can't run in open handicaps nothing will change, and the big Irish stables will continue to dominate the handicaps overall.
 
It’s a risky proposition backing a non Irish in the County but I was waiting for the Imperial Cup entries to come out today to see if there are any strong candidates for doing the double. Langer Dan is entered again I see but the one that really caught my eye was Anyharminasking of Jonjo’s.

I hadn’t noticed this one mopping up a couple of lower grade handicaps at gaff tracks but f*ck me he was impressive and it isn’t hard to believe the 12lb rise for his last time out win isn’t anywhere near enough.

He beat Constitution Hill in his sole point before fetching 140K+ at the Goffs Punchestown sales in April and Jonjo has clearly taken his time with him because his last two runs are a total contrast to his first three. It looks like a case of getting the necessary runs into him and then getting his mark up to ensure he’d qualify.

Whether or not the County is the aim I’m not sure but with NRNB, at 16/1 I’ve taken the chance. If he runs and wins on Saturday his price will nearly halve.
 
I see Up for parol is entered in the imperial cup 20/1 and might need to win to get in the county.
Dont know if they intend to run or not.
 
Maruco said:
... but until the rules change so novices can't run in open handicaps nothing will change, and the big Irish stables will continue to dominate the handicaps overall.
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What's to stop them holding on to them for an extra year thereby allowing them to get into the races as non-novices off similar marks (as well as a year older and more mature - something I think they do a lot with their bumper horses)?

Nice to see you posting again, Maruco.
 
Desert Orchid said:
What's to stop them holding on to them for an extra year thereby allowing them to get into the races as non-novices off similar marks (as well as a year older and more mature - something I think they do a lot with their bumper horses)?
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Nothing to stop them other than other races to win DO. Very few trainers and owners are patient enough to run a two year plan.
 
Not just because I backed him at Kelso but becausehe caught my eye although he only won by 1/2 length at Cheltenham as a horse ahead of the handicapper.

If I am right Cormier is going to get into the County off 138/10st12lbs. Surely he must have a fair chance of picking up the bonus?
 
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Tanlic said:
Not just because I backed him at Kelso but becausehe caught my eye although he only won by 1/2 length at Cheltenham as a horse ahead of the handicapper.

If I am right Cormier is going to get into the County off 138/10st12lbs. Surely he must have a fair chance of picking up the bonus?
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Tiggers will be best-placed to have a view on this, I suspect.
 
Tanlic said:
I don't follow..are you saying he is going up a total of 9lbs?
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No, he gets a 5lb penalty for his win on Saturday.

The weights are already out for the County Hurdle where he was given a mark of 134, which now becomes 139 with the penalty.

The handicapper has put him up 4lbs today so his future mark would be 138.
 
So he’s a fairly rare example of a horse who rather than being well in in his double attempt at the festival is actually -1lb in future
 
6 days dec stage for Tuesday is tomorrow...final dec stage for Tuesday will be Sunday at the 48 hour and final dec stage.
 
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Outsider said:
I bet you are happy with the hcapper not adding any extra to school boy hours.mate
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Yeah mate but still waiting to see if Noel Meade decides to run him next week.

His last comments regarding school Boy Hours were that it was 'unlikely' he would run at Cheltenham and would go straight to the Irish National or Grand National, (something I didn't actually know until after I had backed him for the Ultima).

So who knows...he would head to the top of the betting if he was declared for the Ultima I reckon, IF being the operative word.
 
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The next stage for the handicaps on Tuesday Day 1 of the fesitval is tomorrow at the six day declaration stage.

The final stage for the Grade 1s could also be tomorrow as from memory they do declare earlier for Grade 1s but hopefully Diamond Geezer can confirm this as I am not 100 percent sure.
 
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It might be helpful if people stopped talking about the 6 day confirmations as declarations. Only a small point but it does, obviously, cause confusion.

Final decs are 48 hours for all races.
 
archie said:
It might be helpful if people stopped talking about the 6 day confirmations as declarations. Only a small point but it does, obviously, cause confusion.

Final decs are 48 hours for all races.
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Now that is what I call clarification...

Thankyou, sir.
 
archie said:
It might be helpful if people stopped talking about the 6 day confirmations as declarations. Only a small point but it does, obviously, cause confusion.

Final decs are 48 hours for all races.
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Thanks for the clarification, Archie.

So is it safe to assume the confirmations for the Tuesday handicaps will be made tomorrow?
 
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