Coral Eclipse Stakes

Shadow Leader said:
Take the piss if you like, Galileo, I am speaking as I find, being very familiar with the area.
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Would imagine the staff at Sandown are pretty familiar with the track as well. The rain gauges have been measures at 10-15mms overnight...I'll take that as the rain levels that fell.
 
Story in the RP this afternoon that RVW had a small problem but is ok to run.

Had a very quick look at the times from today and they seemed to suggest Good ground, so with no rain to speak of expected it will only continue to dry. Should be no-excuses ground :)
 
it rained really heavy where I am today..but when it stopped everywhere looked dry after 30 minutes..yet had been hammering down all morning..you couldn't tell it had rained

not saying you aren't right SL..but its quick to dry on the surface with the temperature as it is.
 
I'm struggling to have it that there was heavy rain overnight. As I said before, there was very little change in conditions c.3 m away from the track. But, of course, there may well be a microclimate around Sandown comprising its own rainclouds.....
 
if I had slept this morning I would have doubted anyone telling me it had rained heavy where I am tbh

the times are about middle Good looking at the 10f handicap today...so unlessthey have already over watered it either was never Good to Firm or it has rained
 
Kinane was a complete twat at The Curragh last weekend and anyone going in large on STS could be in for a rough time.
I will be having a half decent ew bet on Conduit with Ladbrokes tomorrow morning.
 
Kinane rides any amount of shockers in Ireland on a regular basis-as far as I am concerned he is living on past glories and STS.Only a matter of time before he gets caught out in a big race.
 
Luke, you're talking my kind of language. It doesn't seem all that long ago I was being taken to task on here for expressing the opinion that he was rubbish.
 
Shads, it was reported that 10mm. were recorded on the rain guage near the paddock, 15mm. on the 'official' guage out on the course and 10mm. on the guage in the head-groundsman's garden which is situated adjoining the back straight.
 
"8:01am
Firmed up
No rain fell overnight and the ground has been changed to good, good to firm in places, from good."

The above is from the Live Reporter on the RP site.
 
He's clearly got some issues, but with an extra furlong and a race under his belt, Jukebox Jury appeals more to make the frame at a massive price than some of the older horses.
 
Made it +2.01 yesterday with the evidence pointing towards it speeding up during racing. To try and give it a 'language based' description I'd probably call +2.01 something like Good - Good to Firm in places. Probably faster than Good but Good to Firm normally kicks in at about +3.50, so somewhere inbetween. I'd expect to see +3.50 today
 
Conduit 127?t
Sea The Stars 125+
Twice Over 122
Rip Van Winkle 120++

These appear to be the contenders. I can't see anything else winning.

Conduit's high mark is his RPR in America but I have reservations about it. I also have reservations about a St Leger winner at this trip. However, he looked OK at it in the Brigadier Gerard (for which I rated him 124+) so, given the usual improvement Stoute can eke out of them, it's possible he can run to 127 today.

Sea The Stars hit 125+ in the Guineas and 124+ in the Derby. I'd be pretty sure he can hit at least 125 today and he has looked special.

If there is to be an upset, if that's what it could be called, it might be from Twice Over. Cecil knows what it takes to win the race but the jockey might be a negative.

The unknown quantity is Rip Van Winkle. I have no doubt he is a lot better than he showed at both Epsom and Newmarket and I don't find it hard to envisage his running to a similar level as Sea The Stars.

Taking all that into account, I couldn't be a backer of the favourite at odds on. He's probably the percentage call but not betting material. Nor would I be confident about laying him at odds on.

Rip Van Winkle's finish at Epsom surprised me and I reckon he might have a stronger kick than than either the favourite or Conduit so he's lumbered with the vote.
 
He'll probably be fourth, though... It's hard to see the big three not running their races.

I got 7.8 Rip. I think that looks the best value by far.
 
During the lead up to Cheltenham there was some discussion on here about whether there should be a certain standard (rating) a horse should have achieved before he was allowed to run in races such as the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle. Such horses might get in the way of the fancied runners and affect the result of the race.

Isn't this more likely to happen in races such as the Eclipse?

Should Lang Shining, Malibu Bay and Set Sail be allowed to run? As they are there as pacemakers (allegedly), isn't there more likliehood of them getting in the way when they drop back through the field than the rags that run in the top-class NH races?
 
Great looking race and apart from a couple cheeky punts on longshots, I've decided to go lumpy on Conduit to place. He will go on any ground and should come on for the run.

I think he is being written off as a Leger winner, but his stamina means he should be there at the finish, his record over 10f is 3rd,1st,2nd. He might find one or even two two quick or him, but for me this dual-G1 winner oozes class. Nine placed efforts from ten starts (only his racecourse debut where he failed).

Sea The Stars could be a world beater and I still land this bet. It's going to pay for my night out. Pretty confident.
 
Colin Phillips said:
During the lead up to Cheltenham there was some discussion on here about whether there should be a certain standard (rating) a horse should have achieved before he was allowed to run in races such as the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle. Such horses might get in the way of the fancied runners and affect the result of the race.

Isn't this more likely to happen in races such as the Eclipse?

Should Lang Shining, Malibu Bay and Set Sail be allowed to run? As they are there as pacemakers (allegedly), isn't there more likliehood of them getting in the way when they drop back through the field than the rags that run in the top-class NH races?
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I thought it was more of an issue in NH because of the trouble a no-hoper can cause by falling.
 
Gareth, which is easier to avoid?

A faller, who is quite likely to be out with the washing, or a pacemaker dropping back through the field when its job is done?
 
betsmate said:
Great looking race and apart from a couple cheeky punts on longshots, I've decided to go lumpy on Conduit to place. He will go on any ground and should come on for the run.
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I think place-only is generally pretty clever betting but with two provisos.

Firstly, if you're getting close to 1/4 or 1/5 the win odds, it can be a steal as you need to factor in the losing portion of a place-return ew bet. If I thought I could get evens Conduit to place I could be very tempted.

Secondly, the non-runner scenario can crush a place-only bet. The R4 deductions are massive.

(This reply isn't aimed at you, Betsmate. I know you know all that. It's aimed at those not sure of place-only betting.)
 
I would be tough to get those odds in a race with this shape DO, but I agree with the sentiment.

I still can't get my head around who wins when a reduction factor is involved - the backer or the layer; but you are right to point out that it changes the nature of the bet dramatically, which you never want after one has been struck.
 
It has rained at Sandown again this morning although it appears that it has stopped again.
 
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