Dr Campbell has spoken at great length about this. He thinks that the darker someones skin is the more difficult it is for them to produce VitD and Vit D is known to protect against respiratory tract infections. He says it would do no harm and might just do a lot of good to give them VitD tablets. On all of his blogs he does give links to his source material so that people can read them and interpret the findings themselves. There also seems to be a problem with doing studies based on ethnicity because it smacks of racism in some way; which is ridiculous if it can save someones life...I've been taking vit D supplement for a while now and am definitely going to spend this afternoon in the back garden.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tabletop
- Start date
Dr Campbell has spoken at great length about this. He thinks that the darker someones skin is the more difficult it is for them to produce VitD and Vit D is known to protect against respiratory tract infections. He says it would do no harm and might just do a lot of good to give them VitD tablets. On all of his blogs he does give links to his source material so that people can read them and interpret the findings themselves. There also seems to be a problem with doing studies based on ethnicity because it smacks of racism in some way; which is ridiculous if it can save someones life...I've been taking vit D supplement for a while now and am definitely going to spend this afternoon in the back garden.
They state on their page that people should look at other models but it is interesting that all the original modelling now looks to have been far too pessimistic and they are now projecting that social distancing causes it to burn out quicker than previously factored in. These figures are obviously fluid so I will update as they update.
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That's a bit too simplistic. These models are a work in progress. The better the data you put in the more accurate they will be. The data is changing every hour. No one is saying these models are gospel, far from it.
Ali has correctly pointed out that I had the wrong wording for the UK. I've edited the post. The UK is 6 days from peak deaths.
AliGupter
At the Start
Of course, hence the Government telling us the science is changing and improving constantly.
I wrote that before I realised I had put the wrong wording under the UK. Hope it's a bit cleaner now but it's good news that the initial forecast was wrong and hopefully the new number is wrong too.
Rickets (Vit D deficiency) has been increasing significantly in the UK this millennium; in all ethnic groups but particularly amongst those of Asian heritage
It's well known that the darker your skin the longer you have to expose it to sunlight to produce adequate D. For we whiteys this can be as little as 15 minutes face and forearm exposure in strong summer sun, without suncream of course
There is some suggestion that the increase in rickets among white children is due to the now near-regulation use of sun cream when out and about in the summer, though I favour the suggestion that it's the actual decline of once commonplace outdoor activities rather than over-protection from UV when outside
Dr Campbell is excellent, must catch up with his videos
simmo
Senior Jockey
What a beautiful couple of days we've had, enjoying being out in the garden working away. The last of the snow on the hills is just about gone, somewhat earlier than usual.
And due to continue for a few weeks - long live the lockdown.
And due to continue for a few weeks - long live the lockdown.
G-G
Senior Jockey
Calls to Domestic Abuse Helpline up 120%, crime figures only down 20% over same period last year- would have hoped it would have been much better than that 
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I'd say the obvious takeaway is that your source is lousy and should be humanely suffocated
So it's projecting 20,300 deaths in Italy by August 4th? Current total of 19,468. Good luck. Put me down for the overs.
Whilst I'm at it, I'll go over on France too if they're 15,058 by August against a current figure of 13,832 and haven't be below 400 a day for the last 10 days
Hang on, its now forecasting 15,741 for Spain by August 4th. Oh dear!
Who wants to tell them Spain is already 739 deaths north of that figure before the second half of April, yet alone bloody August
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AliGupter
At the Start
Spain have already got more deaths than they projected...
I'd go overs on all of them apart from UK, which I'd go unders.
I'd go overs on all of them apart from UK, which I'd go unders.
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In modelling its called GIGO (garbage in, garbage out)
That they ever considered America would be lower than the UK is a massive miss about a country with 5 times the UK population. They should have known straight away that the model must be running erroneously
Not only that, America has a 'go to work when ill' culture. It barely conducted tests in March, 25% of its population don't have access to medical care other than for emergencies, 10% are anti science and think they can pray it away, and 30% think the whole thing is hoax or the flu
That they ever considered America would be lower than the UK is a massive miss about a country with 5 times the UK population. They should have known straight away that the model must be running erroneously
Not only that, America has a 'go to work when ill' culture. It barely conducted tests in March, 25% of its population don't have access to medical care other than for emergencies, 10% are anti science and think they can pray it away, and 30% think the whole thing is hoax or the flu
These are not updated in real time. I don't actually know how out of date some of the countries figures are. No one is saying these figures are gospel, all models are garbage in, garbage out so spare me your essays, I don't care.
If anyone wants to read why the IHME downgraded their forecast for the UK there is a brief summary here - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...vises-down-forecast-for-uk-coronavirus-deaths
This is the latest tweet from the IHME stating that they will be updating their forecasts on the 14th of April - https://twitter.com/IHME_UW/status/1249049583256289282?s=20
This is the latest tweet from the IHME stating that they will be updating their forecasts on the 14th of April - https://twitter.com/IHME_UW/status/1249049583256289282?s=20
You were certainly prepared to lend them tacit endorsement though "
Current IHME modelling. The UK figure is devastating in comparison to the rest of Europe."
Anyone could have looked at the headline straight away and realised it was going to be badly wrong when it thought the UK top line would be higher than America's
The model is clearly broken and worth little more than flinging darts at a dart board. It's already predicted a figure for Spain that the Spanish have beaten, and the French will exceed theirs by the end of next week. The authors would do their own reputation a favour if they withdrew it.
And no, not all modelling is GIGO, although this particularly oen must be for it to be so badly off
Anyone could have looked at the headline straight away and realised it was going to be badly wrong when it thought the UK top line would be higher than America's
The model is clearly broken and worth little more than flinging darts at a dart board. It's already predicted a figure for Spain that the Spanish have beaten, and the French will exceed theirs by the end of next week. The authors would do their own reputation a favour if they withdrew it.
And no, not all modelling is GIGO, although this particularly oen must be for it to be so badly off
They have been cited by every major news organisation in the last month. They have a website which has a "Call For Collaborators" section. Perhaps you could contact them and tell them where they are going wrong: http://www.healthdata.org/gbd/call-for-collaborators
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Ok just looking at it they are an outlier model and coming in for some serious criticism. Having seen it cited on MSNBC (Rachael Maddow), The Daily Wire (Ben Shapiro), The Guardian and all the major Irish newspapere paper I foolishly assumed this was a credible source.
You wouldn't half be tired of bollocks info over this pandemic. Thanks for putting me straight Warbler.
You wouldn't half be tired of bollocks info over this pandemic. Thanks for putting me straight Warbler.
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This thread on Twitter will get a lot of traction today. It's a comparison of the death rates in Ireland V UK.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249127908876128259.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249127908876128259.html
When it comes to forecasts: be it weather, election polling, cost of an infrastructure project, economic growth, the effects of brexit, pandemics, who will win the next World Cup...anything, placing faith in a single source is foolhardy
However misguided Slim's source might be I'd still welcome updates, preferably in tandem with other sources, if that's not asking too much
Forecasting the course of pandemics strikes me as an archetypal example of the maxim 'everyone gets it wrong, it's just a matter of who gets it least wrong'
Or, as this is ostensibly a racing forum, these words from Phil Bull seem apposite: 'time tells you not how good a horse is but how bad it isn't'
However misguided Slim's source might be I'd still welcome updates, preferably in tandem with other sources, if that's not asking too much
Forecasting the course of pandemics strikes me as an archetypal example of the maxim 'everyone gets it wrong, it's just a matter of who gets it least wrong'
Or, as this is ostensibly a racing forum, these words from Phil Bull seem apposite: 'time tells you not how good a horse is but how bad it isn't'
I wish it would, but the BBC in particular have been appalling apologists for the government and catastrophically failed to hold them to account (as have a vast majority of the media and the handpicked chosen 'political journalists' throwing them under arms each day
If you want an illustration of how woefully unprepared the government were, and how they completely failed to grasp the gravity of the deteriorating situation, there is one kind of undeniable, and damning piece of evidence from which they can't escape
On March 11th, Rishi Sunak delivered his budget
As part of a £30Bn investment programme he'd set aside £5Bn to help tackle coronavirus
Less than a week later on March 17th he's ripped his budget up and was announcing £330Bn support for business in response to coronavirus
That's all you need to know really as its a massive 'tell' on the government. If £330Bn was what was needed, then he had the show piece opportunity to announce it 6 days earlier, but completely failed to
The government hasn't got much right throughout this. Their list of errors is greater than their achievements.
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Were there any countries, especially western ones, well prepared for a pandemic?
However I'm very wary of stats from different countries, unless each country collects & collates them in the same way etc etc and aren’t basically lying such as china, then comparisons are fairly meaningless. Plus population sizes, geography and population densities are factors.
E.g Ireland has a population density of 181 per sqm and the UK 701 per sqm , so any contagious disease is going to hit us harder. I don't think it mentions population density in that link above.
I don't do conspiracy theories as I'm more inclined to just see the world as cold, hard & sharp , and what is, is pretty much what you see.
But I'm very sus re China and all this, how much has covid19 hit such as Beijing and Shanghai compared to the western world? I.e. considering they're somewhat closer to Wuhan than London, Rome & New York.
However I'm very wary of stats from different countries, unless each country collects & collates them in the same way etc etc and aren’t basically lying such as china, then comparisons are fairly meaningless. Plus population sizes, geography and population densities are factors.
E.g Ireland has a population density of 181 per sqm and the UK 701 per sqm , so any contagious disease is going to hit us harder. I don't think it mentions population density in that link above.
I don't do conspiracy theories as I'm more inclined to just see the world as cold, hard & sharp , and what is, is pretty much what you see.
But I'm very sus re China and all this, how much has covid19 hit such as Beijing and Shanghai compared to the western world? I.e. considering they're somewhat closer to Wuhan than London, Rome & New York.
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I'm still astonished at how many people in the UK don't think any kind of lock down applies to them. Me I can count on one hand the number of times I've left my front gates in 4 weeks and I'll stay locked down as much as possible for a long time yet.
'When' this is over I wonder how the covid19 stats (if any truthful ones appear) will compare to the cancer stats and whether going forward it's something that will continue to hit a certain % of the population as cancer does i.e. although not contagious, cancer hits about 360k people per year and kills about 165k. Plus I think I read the flu kills about 17k per year on it's own.
https://www.macmillan.org.uk/_images/cancer-statistics-factsheet_tcm9-260514.pdf
'When' this is over I wonder how the covid19 stats (if any truthful ones appear) will compare to the cancer stats and whether going forward it's something that will continue to hit a certain % of the population as cancer does i.e. although not contagious, cancer hits about 360k people per year and kills about 165k. Plus I think I read the flu kills about 17k per year on it's own.
https://www.macmillan.org.uk/_images/cancer-statistics-factsheet_tcm9-260514.pdf
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